Ten To Follow: A Set Of Jumpers To Follow For The Upcoming National Hunt Season
After a couple of Cheltenham winners in his list last season (El Fabiolo and Lossiemouth) who were both double figure prices for their targets when highlighted, plus the Grand National second Vanillier, BIlly Grimshaw is back with his Ten To Follow for the upcoming National Hunt Season. Jumps fans, it’s time to buckle in because the crazy ride that is every Jump Racing campaign is about to begin again!
A well trodden path to finding exceptional potential middle distance or staying chasers is to look down the field in a Supreme Novices’ and find horses that were simply outpaced. It matters not in the grand scheme of things that they did not have the speed to go with rockets such as Facile Vega and Marine Nationale, and a horse I am very keen to keep onside this season is STRONG LEADER for the Olly Murphy stable.
His run at Cheltenham can be easily excused on watching it back, as his ninth place on paper shows nothing about the way the race panned out for him. Murphy’s other runner Chasing Fire was the stable’s most prominent runner but Strong Leader wasn’t far behind. Unfortunately when the pressure ramped up he simply couldn’t keep up with his pacier rivals making their moves three out. By the time the leaders were approaching two out his chance was gone and rider Sean Bowen didn’t give him a hard time, although it was notable that when the ground flattened out and he had a more simple task he did stay on quite well despite no pressure from his jockey.
Sticking on Chasing Fire for a moment I do think he could have a decent year as well if sent chasing and kept to the minimum trip, but Strong Leader will undoubtedly be Turners or Brown Advisory bound. The reason he has made this list is his unbelievably strong finishing effort at Aintree to snaffle second place behind Inthepocket when he looked locked in for a mid division finish jumping the last. Perhaps this shows a flat track suits him better than the undulations of Cheltenham but there is enough evidence to think his powerful finishes will make him a force over either intermediate or staying trips. Of course he may not take to fences, but the big strapping black gelding certainly looks made for them and I can’t wait to see where he kicks his season off.
We saw last season the dominance a French filly can exude in the juvenile division and although lightning may not strike twice and this horse may not be as good as Lossiemouth has proven to be, I’m still confident Gordon Elliott and Robcour have a good one in KALA CONTI. On her sole start in France she brushed aside a field of more experienced rivals in taking fashion at Compiegne.
The ground looked pretty atrocious that day but we know that it can get that way in Ireland over the winter, and indeed come the spring festivals if the weather gods do not smile upon us. What particularly impressed me, and I’m sure anyone who digs the race finish replay out, was the manner in which this debutant switched off and almost trotted around with the field until the final obstacle at which her rider pushed the button and whoosh, she was gone.
That race over just shy of two miles looked ideal for her and I’d expect Gordon Elliott to start her off in a race of some merit after the impression she created on debut in France. She is available at 25/1 at the time of writing to win the Triumph Hurdle which I will be having a small interest on, but even if she is not quite up to that level I’m sure she will have her fair share of wins throughout the campaign.
She was not quite up to Lossiemouth’s standards when things really mattered, but GALA MARCEAU did lower her star stablemate’s colours earlier in the season and she is such a game filly I’m convinced she can win a nice pot or two this season. A habitual front-runner, her form reads incredibly well as the new season approaches. Only beaten by Lossiemouth at Cheltenham and then finishing behind her once more and future Galway Hurdle winner Zarak The Brave at Punchestown, it has been lost in the madness by some how dominant she was in the French Triumph Hurdle.
To stuff the hot favourite Losange Bleu by 7 lengths off the back of a long arduous season of front running was no mean feat and shows the brilliant constitution of this filly. There have been plenty of boffins over the years that have crunched the numbers and determined prominent horses over perform at Cheltenham, although the consensus seems to be the bias is more prominent over fences than hurdles. Nevertheless. Gala Marceau’s run style will see her in the shake up at the festival and I’m in no doubt she will win a few races on the way.
The Mares' Hurdle division gets better every year and although Willie Mullins trains the favourite, the aforementioned Lossiemouth, he is not averse to running a clutch of horses in any race. Another left field suggestion for Gala Marceau could be to head into open company against both genders and go for either the Stayers' Hurdle or, more dauntingly, take on Constitution Hill in the Champion Hurdle. She could be a sneaky each-way bet for the 2 mile showpiece as we are almost sure not to get eight runners on the day, but it's hardly a betting proposition this far out.
Often the Albert Bartlett is a race in which if punters could nail the forecasts and tricasts they would be filthy rich, and the 2023 renewal was no exception. Stay Away Fay was a smashing winner and rightly leads many people’s hopes as a staying chaser to follow given his handler Paul Nicholls loves the line “anything he does over hurdles is a bonus” and due to the sheer size of the horse. He was sent off a big price that day but it was dwarfed by the 150/1 odds of the second AFFORDALE FURY, who ran a stormer for Noel Meade.
Watching the race back for the first time in months I have somewhat changed my tune on the outcome. At the time I was convinced the winner was always holding the runner up but on later inspection, I’m not so sure. One thing I am sure about however is that both deserve serious respect wherever they begin their chasing careers this time out. Indeed on breeding Affordale Fury should improve bundles for fences and his second behind Gaelic Warrior, despite it being a 10L second, at Punchestown reads well enough considering that one is the correct Stayers’ Hurdle favourite.
Meade's charge was doing all his best work late once more and I wouldn’t be surprised if he developed into a real National prospect. Still only five he has the world at his feet and a tilt at the National Hunt Chase, or perhaps the Brown Advisory if connections deem him speedy enough or don’t like the amateurs race, looks the way to go.
I cannot understand the pricing of the Albert Bartlett antepost right now. Watching the bumper horses of last season, there was plenty to get excited about and none more so than A Dream To Share. The horse’s ability was exciting enough but with the backstory an extra layer was added, and he will be hard to beat in the Supreme if it turns out he can jump obstacles.
With that being said, the horse he beat into second in the Bumper Fact To File is hot favourite for the Albert Bartlett Novices' Hurdle while the horse that in my view looks a more bona fide 3 mile prospect that finished in third is dismissed at an insulting 22/1. Fact To File of course looks smart in his own right but to my eye showed more speed and could easily head for the Ballymore, while Willie Mullins has recently mused he may send the huge gelding straight over fences.
CAPTAIN TEAGUE looks full of stamina to me and may lack the pace needed for the Supreme or Ballymore, and he is a staying chaser in the making for anyone’s money. Stay Away Fay of course won the race for Paul Nicholls in 2023 and I’d be surprised if the champion trainer doesn’t plot a similar path for this exciting son of Doyen, with the Festival being the end goal. The Champion Bumper I’m fairly sure will work out well and in years to come racing fans will rave about how well this lad did to finish third considering the stayer he went on to be.
“If the ground is dry, that will really suit him. If he was trained somewhere else, I’d say he’d be running on the Flat. He could win over a mile on the Flat, he’s that fast.” These were the words Gordon Elliott gave the presspack that visited his yard before the 2023 Cheltenham Festival regarding KING OF KINGSFIELD, his Champion Bumper prospect who clearly possesses a wicked turn of foot.
Unfortunately for Elliott and the horse, the ground on Wednesday was certainly not dry and as such the horse’s price drifted like a barge before he was pulled out of the race by connections. Never mind, he would be saved for Punchestown and be given the chance to take on the fiendishly impressive A Dream To Share there instead. On the day he drifted markedly again, indicating the team were still unconvinced he would succeed with yielding in the ground description. He ran a fine race at 28/1 for third, although no match for the front two, and it was clear to see the speed Elliott had referred to was not seen to best effect his will to plug on was a welcome bonus.
If saved for proper good jumping ground I’d expect him to surprise a few in either handicap company or even Graded races over in Ireland. He may not take to jumping and Elliott will attempt to make a flat horse of him, but either way I’ll be backing him whenever the sun is shining and retain some faith that he could even make a splash at the big festivals providing he gets his ground. The Supreme may be a fanciful goal, but you never know!
Yet to venture outside of Ireland for a race, PANDA BOY looks to be a staying chaser with plenty of upside coming into the new season. Still only seven, he ran a cracker in April’s irish Grand National to finish fifth and was still in with a chance of victory at the second last, when his slight mistake on landing cost him momentum.
He looks to relish every furlong and has run all his best races over three miles and beyond, so I’d be keen to watch his progress this season with an eye on a possible title at the Grand National when he is eight next April. Before this he will have to run well in at least one of the big staying handicaps in Ireland before perhaps a tune up in another handicap at Cheltenham.
As we saw in 2022 Corach Rambler used the Ultima Handicap Chase as the perfect prep for the showpiece race at Aintree and although plans remain not set in stone for Brassil and the team, I do think they have a live Grand National hope on their hands here. Hopefully he can run well enough throughout the season to get a rating high enough to make the final field. If you are inclined to have an antepost bet this far out, 40/1 is widely available.
We are all suckers for a bold front runner and particularly in the latter half of last season, DOUGLAS TALKING stole plenty of hearts with his catch me if you can style of running. He was a bit of a tearaway for poor Derek Fox earlier in his career but Lucinda Russell worked her magic and he seems much more malleable these days, although he still loves to get on with things.
In the early season he ran poorly to be 7th and was given a break before wind surgery was opted for by connections. His return in February could hardly have been more impressive as he romped to a win at Ayr before taking his form to another level with a 13 length shellacking of the opposition at Sandown. Many called for him to head to Cheltenham next but connections swerved the Festival in favour of a tilt at the Red Rum at Aintree as favourite. He looked the winner all over before being reeled in by Magic Daze, before suffering the same fate at Punchestown before being caught by the high class Dinoblue.
I am of the opinion Dinoblue has a right chance wherever she goes this campaign in graded company and if Douglas Talking does not have that calibre of rival to beat in handicap company, this can be a profitable season with a big win at a Spring Festival not out of his reach now he is in his prime.
This could be out of date within record time of publication if GEVREY runs like a drain in the Kerry National on Wednesday, but I am fairly confident a decent season in big staying handicaps awaits this Cullentra inmate. Gordon Elliott had been campaigning him as a middle distance horse throughout 2022 and he met with some success, notably winning a handicap at Limerick.
After a busy run through the winter he put in a poor showing at Gowran on gruelling heavy ground in late November, which prompted connections to keep him fresh for his big target of the Plate at Cheltenham. On the day he got outpaced too early in the race to trouble the winners but his finishing effort needs to be seen to be believed. He is not even in shot on replays when they jump the last but somehow flies to grab fourth and is gaining rapidly on the leaders with every stride.
This showed Elliott that he was a stayer now he was a bit older and his run in the Irish National to finish a length back in second was a brilliant start to staying life. He wasn’t at his best on seasonal debut a month or so back at Kilbeggan but he is a spring horse on all evidence we’ve seen, so keep him in mind for when the big festivals come around.
Wrapping up the list is a horse I was bitterly disappointed with at Cheltenham, GOOD LAND for Barry Connell. The owner trainer had kicked off the Festival in the best possible way when his banker of the week Marine Nationale did the business with aplomb in the Supreme.
I was sweet on Good Land’s Ballymore chances before that result and got even sweeter after Connell had reported that there was not much to split his star novices. As it transpired, perhaps even a peak form Good Land could not have dealt with mega impressive Ballymore hero Impaire Et Passe, but he was reported to have been found ‘not right’ in the aftermath of the race.
Before his Cheltenham mishap he had looked a star at the Dublin Racing Festival when cruising to success, but there was always the suspicion that he would improve still further for fences. Now reportedly back on song and on track for big intermediate contests (understandably keeping him away from Marine Nationale) he can make up for that Cheltenham flop. He is a bigger price than I would want to be laying for the Turners right now and with no obvious superstar looking a definite for the race, he could be significantly shorter if impressing on chase debut.
