Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Denver Get Revenge?

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07 February 2023

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Denver Get Revenge?

After the Minnesota Timberwolves had their way with the Denver Nuggets on Sunday, Nikola Jokic and friends are set to return to the lineup in tonight’s matchup. Read on for our Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA picks based on the best NBA odds.

The Nuggets (37-17) rested a number of prominent players on Sunday and the results showed. The Timberwolves (29-27) gave it to them in a 30-point win. With a rejuvenated roster, the script could certainly flip on Tuesday night in Denver as the Nuggets boast one of the best home clips in the NBA this season.

Here is our best Timberwolves vs. Nuggets NBA pick (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets pick

Nuggets -9 (-110 via FanDuel) vs. Timberwolves ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Don’t look too closely at the previous matchup between the Nuggets and Timberwolves to glean information about how tonight’s rematch will go. Although Minnesota secured a 128-98 home win over Denver in that one, it came as the Nuggets sat four starters including their two-time MVP.

The Joker and three other regular starters are expected to return to the lineup this time around. Though I’m intrigued by the total moving downward for a game involving two of the more prolific offenses in the NBA, I want to focus on Denver’s point spread here as the season-long trends favor a home cover by the Nuggets in this spot.

Denver is tied for the second-highest home cover rate in the NBA this season, going 18-10-1 ATS at Ball Arena with an average margin of +11.2 to lead the league. The Timberwolves rank 23rd in the league in road cover rate, going 10-14 ATS in away games.

The Nuggets score an average of 8.1 points per game higher at home compared to their output in road games. Meanwhile, Minnesota’s scoring drops by nearly five points per game on the road. Denver is well-rested after essentially sacrificing the contest at Minnesota Sunday in order to be prepared to dominate this one on Tuesday.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets best odds

FanDuel, Caesars, PointsBet (-110)

BetMGM has the most attractive odds on the board for a Nuggets bet, listing Denver with -105 odds. When they’re connected to the hook to -9.5, though, we’re not as interested. DraftKings also has Denver at -9.5 and they don’t even offer an improvement on standard -110 odds, so that’s a spot to avoid for this wager.

The rest of our recommended sportsbooks all post identical lines and odds with the Nuggets at -9 (-110). Any would be recommended choices for this play. The number has moved handily toward Denver; if it gets to a double-digit spread, we’ll bump down our recommendation from four stars to three.

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds

Timberwolves vs. Nuggets odds analysis

The Nuggets opened as 7.5-point favorites and have since seen that margin increase to between -9 and -9.5 across the board. This line has been pushed closer to double-digits, thanks to 65% of wagers being placed on Denver.

The total opened at 235.5, but has dropped slightly to 233.5 and 234 across our affiliated sportsbooks. Despite this downward shift, 59% of wagers on the total have been on the Over.