Top NHL picks February 6: Bet on underdog Canucks against Devils

The NHL seasons resumes with six games on Monday.

The pregame narrative: Bo Horvat is no longer on the team, but we’re betting on the Vancouver Canucks to keep it close against the New Jersey Devils. The Florida Panthers are a defensive and goaltending sieve, making the Tampa Bay Lightning team total an intriguing wager. Lastly, we’re expecting a low-scoring game between the New York Islanders and Philadelphia Flyers.

Find our top NHL picks for February 6 below.

Odds as of 3:32 p.m. on 02/05/2023.

NHL picks

Best Bet: Canucks +1.5 (-139)

There’s a little juice to pay with this bet, but we really like backing Vancouver on the puck line against New Jersey.

The first reason is the recent play of the team. The Canucks own the third-best expected goals percentage (59.51%) in the league over the last two weeks, according to Natural Stat Trick. They’re succeeding mainly because of their defensive efforts, as they own the third-lowest expected goals against per 60 mark (2.28) during this time.

Although the sample size is small, the early results are encouraging with new head coach Rick Tocchet. Vancouver’s 2-1-0 with a pair of three-goal victories since the coach took over.

Additionally, the Canucks are facing a team that has struggled at home. Despite owning an NHL-best 19-3-2 road record, the Devils are a mediocre 13-10-2 at Prudential Center this season.

New Jersey ranks 29th in expected goals for percentage (42.05%) over the last 14 days, and we’re not expecting the squad to cover the puck line.

Key stat: The Devils haven’t won any of their last 11 home games by two goals or more.

Quick picks

Lightning over 3.5 goals (+102): Tampa Bay has scored four goals or more in seven of the team’s last 10 games, and the conditions are ripe for a big offensive output against Florida. The Panthers have ceded four goals or more in three of their last four and are struggling in some key areas.

They’re surrendering the second-most expected goals against per 60 (4.25) while posting the second-worst team save percentage (.866) over the last two weeks.

Islanders vs. Flyers under 6 goals (-120): Recent and season-long trends suggest taking the under in this contest. New York’s gone below this number in three consecutive games and five of the team’s last seven.

Philadelphia, meanwhile, has cashed the under on this total in back-to-back outings and four of the squad’s last six.

Both the Islanders (2.85, 25th) and Flyers (2.78, 27th) rank inside bottom 10 of goals per game this season