Turf Mile fair odds: Value hinges on Up to the Mark’s price

The Grade 1, $1 million Turf Mile on Saturday at Keeneland is a classic wedding-funeral situation.

You know the cliché. If you didn’t go to the wedding, then don’t attend the funeral. I’m not sure what kind of wedding it was, though. Master of The Seas was 2-5 when winning the Woodbine Mile (G1), which gives me crudité and cash-bar vibes.

All that is to say he will be a better price in the Keeneland Turf Mile, but is it the right price?

I was dead against Master of The Seas that day. Tossed him from my horizontal wagers and built my contest plays around beating him. He buried me with a devastating turn of foot and was much the best against five overmatched rivals who included three starters for trainer Mark Casse. 

But he certainly passed the eye test if not the class test. That he shows up here just three weeks later is a big boost of confidence given there was some chatter of training up to the Breeders’ Cup Mile on Nov. 4 at Santa Anita.

But as always, price will the final arbiter, and the only way I see Master of The Seas as playable is if Up to the Mark takes a lot of money. He is dangerous for sure, but the layoff tips the scales in Master of The Seas favor for me.

Unfortunately, this race definitely has the possibility of being bet efficiently in that, factoring takeout and final pricing, there may not be an overlay. If Stitched is completely and utterly ignored, I’d be willing to play him as a front-end threat. Set Piece, Atone and Annapolis are certainly in the mix, but I can’t imagine any of them being overlaid. From a pace standpoint, even though Master of The Seas closed stoutly last out, I think he’s tactical enough to get the jump on any of these.

So it’s a win bet for me on Master of The Seas at 5-2 or better. I’d be willing to single him against other favorites around him. Stitched isn’t impossible to stick around for a slice, so another option is keying him with the favorite in the tri.