UFC 286 odds: Usman, Edwards set for trilogy bout
As far as main events go, this one couldn’t be more obvious. The headliner of UFC 286 will be a trilogy bout between Kamaru Usman and welterweight champion Leon Edwards at London’s O2 Arena.
The latest: The next chapter of Usman vs. Edwards will either result in Usman reclaiming his title or Edwards defending for the first time. UFC 286 also features a bout between two fighters hoping to build toward a lightweight title chance.
UFC 286 odds
UFC odds as of 11:55 a.m. ET on 03/09/2023.
UFC 286 odds: Usman vs. Edwards
Odds: Usman (-250) vs. Edwards (+195)
A little bit of history always helps inspire excitement about a UFC fight — especially with a title on the line.
Usman and Edwards first battled back in 2015, when the former won via unanimous decision. They didn’t link up again until this past August when Edwards earned a knockout win in the final minute of the five-round scrap.
The UK-raised Edwards is on home soil, and he’s coming off a victory in this matchup. But that still isn’t enough to make him the favourite.
Why? Because Usman defended the lightweight title five times before Edwards came around, and their UFC 278 bout was trending in Usman’s favour before the knockout.
According to UFC Stats, Usman landed 83 significant strikes while boasting 10:36 of control. Edwards landed 55 significant strikes and had 2:55 of control.
In a moment of weakness, Usman went down. But he’s earned the right to be the favourite despite the fact he no longer holds the belt.
Fiziev vs. Gaethje
Odds: Fiziev (-245) vs. Gaethje (+190)
Gaethje has gotten a glimpse of a title belt, but he’ll have to win at UFC 286 if he wants another crack at actually holding one.
At UFC 249 in May 2020, Gaethje earned interim lightweight championship status, but he refused to accept the belt until earning it in undisputed fashion. That moment never came, though, as he lost his next bout against Khabib Nurmagomedov.
Gaethje then fought for the vacant lightweight title last May but lost in the first round via rear-naked choke.
Despite being the higher-seeded challenger in the division, Gaethje is the underdog against the surging Fiziev, who enters on a six-fight win streak and will be on a pay-per-view main card for the very first time.
Fiziev may not have the high-end experience of Gaethje, but he’s a serious threat to finish a fight at any moment with a knockout (eight of his 12 career victories have come that way).
Wood vs. Carolina
Odds: Wood (-175) vs. Carolina (+138)
Times are tough for Wood, who’s on a three-fight losing streak and has won just once in her past five bouts. A split-decision loss at UFC 263 began a spiral that has her outside of the top-15 rankings for women’s flyweight.
But Wood is favoured to bounce back in this one, and that could be partially a credit to how tough her recent competition has been. Wood’s three previous combatants are all ranked No. 7 or better in the division, including current champion Alexa Grasso.
If Carolina is going to find success, it’ll likely come by dragging Wood to the finish line.
Five of the Brazilian’s eight wins have come via decision and she could use her 3.5-inch reach advantage to keep Wood at bay.
Nelson vs. Barberena
Odds: Nelson (-375) vs. Barberena (+275)
The fact that this is the main card’s most lopsided fight (in terms of odds) says a lot about how tightly contested UFC 286 should be.
Barberena has been a far busier fighter in recent years, stepping into the octagon six times since September 2020. Nelson has only fought once in that span, winning via unanimous decision over Takashi Sato last March.
Prior to the pandemic, Nelson lost consecutive bouts against Edwards (current welterweight champion) and Gilbert Burns (No. 5 challenger). Both fights went to a decision, and the one against Edwards was split.
If Nelson was more active on the circuit, he probably wouldn’t be in a matchup against an unranked challenger.
Vettori vs. Dolidze
Odds: Vettori (-278) vs. Dolidze (+215)
This is a genuine prove-it fight for Dolidze, who has crafted an excellent 12-1 record as a fighter without ever facing someone of Vettori’s calibre.
As for Vettori, he’s fought — and come up short — against some of the best in the weight class already. The 29-year-old Italian lost his most recent bout versus No. 2 middleweight challenger Robert Whittaker (in September) after falling against then-champion Israel Adesanya in 2021.
Eight of Vettori’s past nine fights have reached a decision, while Dolidze’s past three have finished via knockout/TKO.
