UFC 287: Prelim Picks and Predictions
Preliminary bouts always fly under the radar, but we've got you covered ahead of UFC 287 in Miami. Here are our three favorite picks, headlined by Chris Curtis getting the best of Kelvin Gastelum on Saturday night.
UFC 287 takes place in Miami on Saturday and is staked with high-stakes matchups all over the card.
The main events of the evening are a middleweight title rematch as Alex Pereira tries to go 4-0 over former champion Israel Adesanya, while Gilbert Burns tangles with Jorge Masvidal in a grudge match. While those two bouts are receiving the majority of attention when it comes to UFC odds, we have three fights during the prelims that we love as well.
Here are our free picks and predictions for the UFC 287 prelims on April 8.
UFC 287 prelim picks and predictions
Cynthia Calvillo vs Lupita Godinez
• Prediction: Godinez ML (-280)
• Best Bet: Fight to go the distance (-115)
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke vs Steve Garcia
• Prediction: Garcia ML (+170)
• Best Bet: Garcia by KO/TKO/DQ (+465)
Chris Curtis vs Kelvin Gastelum
• Prediction: Curtis moneyline (+110)
• Best Bet: Curtis to win by decision (+225)
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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The skidding Calvillo has lost her last four fights, while Godinez struggles with consistency. The line for Godinez should be higher, but she can’t be a lock with her low fight IQ and baffling choices offensively. Godinez sometimes gets her game plans mixed up, often fighting to her opponent’s strengths, as evident in her recent losses to Andrea Lee and Luana Carolina.
Something has to give for Calvillo, as the impressive win over Jessica Eye has been forgotten following her losing streak. She does have height and reach advantages over Godinez, but like her opponent, Calvillo can’t seem to get anything to work.
We’re picking Godinez due to her recent form, but if you're bullish on Calvillo rising to the task, the safer play may be to bet on the fight to go the distance.
Prediction: Godinez moneyline (-280 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Fight to go the distance (-115 at DraftKings)
We are blaring the upset alert for this featherweight clash. Nuerdanbieke is a solid grappler with conservative striking but is now taking on a high-energy KO artist with a 100% takedown defense. Garcia moves quickly, fires with intent, and has scored three knockout wins in his last five fights.
His reckless abandon could leave him open for takedowns, but Garcia can keep this fight standing and force Nuerdanbieke to fight at his pace. With Nuerdanbieke’s low output striking, that will be disastrous.
Garcia will also possess a four-inch height advantage and a six-inch reach advantage. Unless Nuerdanbieke gets this fight on the ground, he’ll be picked apart by Garcia.
We’re liking Garcia by stoppage here.
Prediction: Garcia moneyline (+170 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Garcia by KO/TKO/DQ (+475 at DraftKings)
Gastelum is an underachiever whom the UFC refuses to give up on. He’s been out of the ring for two years and has only won once since 2019, yet he’s a favorite against Curtis. Even now, people are banking on Gastelum getting it right when it’s clear he’s beyond saving.
Curtis is an athletic striker with a great chin. He also enters Saturday with a chip on his shoulder, believing he should have been on the main card.
I simply can't bet on a fighter who has gone 1-5 over his last six and is coming off a two-year injury layoff. Whatever technical liabilities Curtis has, Gastelum doesn’t have the style to exploit them. He’ll go right at him and try to bomb him out.
Expect “Action Man” Curtis to close the book on Gastelum once and for all, handing him a decision loss and punching his ticket to the main card for his next fight.
Prediction: Curtis moneyline (+110 at DraftKings)
Best Bet: Curtis to win by decision (+225 at DraftKings)
