UFC 295 Gambling Preview: Will Alex Pereira make history and become two-division champion?
Jiri Prochazka is back to reclaim his light heavyweight title, and standing in his way is the protege of the man Prochazka first defeated to become champion: Alex Pereira.
On Saturday, Prochazka faces Pereira in the main event of UFC 295 for the vacant light heavyweight title. But before that, Sergei Pavlovich tangles with Tom Aspinall for an interim heavyweight title, and 11 other fights of varying importance take place in Madison Square Garden. With so much action this pay-per-view weekend, let’s check out some of the best bets available.
Straight Bets
Alex Pereira, -125
I wrote a full breakdown of this fight that you should go check out, so I won’t go into too much detail here. The short version is this: Prochazka is a chaos merchant, and Pereira bonks people real hard. I suspect Pereira will be able to do the same here, as Prochazka is not deeply invested in what some analysts have described as “defense.” That being said, you’re not getting much additional juice for betting the KO prop line, so just stick with straight action here, to cover your bases.
Sergei Pavlovich, -102
I’ve gone back and forth on this fight all week, because it’s really difficult to judge. We simply don’t know enough about either guy, as they’ve fought for a combined 30 minutes across 14 fights in the UFC. That’s not a lot to go on.
That being said, what we do know is that Pavlovich hits like an angry mule, and Aspinall is coming in on short notice. Given those factors alone, it feels like Pavlovich should be installed as the favorite here, so I’m taking a value shot at near-even odds.
Prop Bets
Jessica Andrade by Decision, +400
Betting on a woman who has lost three in a row might not be the savviest move in the gambling quiver, but I like this as a buy low spot for Andrade. Yes, she’s been on a bad run of form, but Erin Blanchfield, Tatiana Suarez, and Yan Xiaonan are all much better than Mackenzie Dern. Dern is a great grappler, but she’s a poor striker and an atrocious wrestler. This fight has every opportunity to look like Andrade’s shellacking of Lauren Murphy earlier this year, particularly since Dern has proven to be quite tough in her own right.
Loopy Godinez by Decision, +100
Tabatha Ricci relies heavily on scoring takedowns and her grappling game, and for most of her UFC career, that’s worked out. That won’t be the case on Saturday, as Godinez is a strong wrestler and should be able to keep things on the feet, where the volume and sheer willingness to scrap give her a clear edge. Godinez is not the biggest finisher, and Ricci is pretty durable, so it’s more likely than not that this one goes to the judges.
Parlay of the Week
Our parlay this week is an all-time classic Violence Parlay. There are three fights on Saturday’s main card that seemed destined to deliver finishes, we’re gonna bet they all do.
Jiri Prochazka/Alex Pereira Under 3.5 Rounds, -280
If Prochazka doesn’t get bonked, Pereira probably will. Prochazka’s style of throwing everything but the kitchen sink, then throwing that too (and a few flying knees for good measure) means someone is going out.
Sergei Pavlovich/Tom Aspinall Under 2.5 Rounds, -450
Neither man has ever seen the third round inside the octagon. (Mike) Heck, they haven’t even seen the eighth minute of a fight. This fight has a million unknowns, but the only surprising outcome would be a contest that lasts longer than 12 minutes.
Matt Frevola/Benoit Saint-Denis Under 2.5 Rounds, -300
The people’s feature fight on Saturday, Frevola and BSD figures to be guaranteed gangbusters. BSD is an absolutely electric prospect who’s looked incredible since dropping down to lightweight, earning four straight finishes. Likewise, Frevola is on an excellent run of form, banking three straight stoppages to earn himself ranking. These guys are going to get after it until one of them gets got.
Parlay these three bets together for +121 odds.
Long Shot of the Week
Jared Gordon vs. Mark Madsen Ends in a Draw, +5000
We’re really in our bag on this one. For starters, these two are very evenly matched (their one common opponent, Grant Dawson, submitted them both in the third round with rear-naked chokes). Madsen is the superior wrestler and grappler (Olympic silver medalist in Grego-Roman), but Gordon is the better boxer and has the better cardio. That last part is the key to this bet. Madsen has a history of grinding out a few rounds with clinch-wrestling before gassing out and holding on down the stretch. Gordon is the type of fighter who might not be able to stave off Madsen, but he can outlast him and pour it on in the third round to get the finish. If Madsen can survive to the score cards, we might be looking at a draw, particularly given how judges are with 10-8 rounds these days.
Wrap Up
We took UFC Sao Paulo off for personal reasons, but we’re back, and it’s time to put together a winning streak to end the year.
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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