UFC 295 Tips: Our 3 best bets on Saturday night make 12/1 treble

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11 November 2023

UFC 295 Tips: Our 3 best bets on Saturday night make 12/1 treble

UFC Betting Tips

3.15am: Diego Lopes v Pat Sabatini – Sabatini To Win
4.45am: Tom Aspinall v Sergei Pavlovich – Aspinall To Win By KO/TKO
5.30am: Alex Pereira v Jiri Prochazka – Pereira To Win By KO/TKO

A treble with these selections pays at approximately12/1 with Paddy Power.

Diego Lopes has had two fights so far in the UFC and another on Dana White’s Contender Series. Two of which he lost convincingly, taking twice as many significant strikes as he landed, as well as getting taken down several times in each fight.

Lopes did win his last fight after getting taken down in the first round. He managed to throw up a triangle armbar on his way to the ground winning by submission.

Although undeniably impressive jiu-jitsu, most in the sport consider that a low percentage reaction to the takedown attempt. After seeing that, Sabatini will be wise to Lopes’ submission threats coming from his takedowns.

Sabatini averages 3.8 successful takedowns per fight. Lopes has a woeful defensive wrestling record defending just 33% of takedown attempts. He’s been taken down eight times in his three UFC fights so far.

On the feet, Lopes doesn’t look too good either. On average over those three fights Lopes absorbed five significant strikes per minute and landing just two of his own.

Sabatini is a much more well-rounded MMA fighter. Other than dealing with Lopes’s submission threats, I can’t see Sabatini having much trouble. It’s got to be Pat Sabatini to win.

This is a huge fight literally and figuratively for the UFC. Both fighters have steamrolled their way through the heavyweight division putting almost everyone away in the first round.

It’s appropriate that their paths cross now in a title fight. Tom Aspinall’s only loss in the UFC came by an innocuous knee injury 15 seconds into his fight against Curtis Blaydes in July 2022.

I think we can ignore that fight entirely. Since rehabbing his knee, Aspinall got straight back to making light work of the division beating Marcin Tybura in just over 60 seconds.

Sergei Pavlovich doesn’t have a perfect record either. He lost his UFC debut to Alistair Overeem but has looked untouchable since. It’s hard to compare résumés when A: there’s not much tape to watch and B: the tape just shows their opponents getting pulverised.

Aspinall is the slight favourite. He has takedowns in his game with devastating ground and pound. Pavlovich hasn’t taken anyone down yet in seven UFC fights.

Aspinall also absorbs fewer strikes per minute than Sergei and Aspinall’s opponents miss a higher percentage of their attempted strikes. That’s good enough for me. I’ll take Tom Aspinall to win by KO/TKO.

Jiri Prochazka won the Interim Light Heavyweight belt last year against 43-year-old Glover Texeira and, after suffering a shoulder injury that required surgery, he quickly vacated the title out of respect for the other fighters so they can compete for the belt.

17 months later, he’s now making his return against Alex Pereira once again fighting for the Interim 205-pound belt. Look, Jiri is a weird guy. He sees himself as a true martial artist and tries to live the life of a samurai.

He has posted multiple videos online of himself training on his own in a forest. After winning the title, he celebrated by spending three days alone in a dark room.

Jiri may be a true martial artist but he’s not a very active one. Since joining the UFC in 2020, he’s had just three fights. Alex Pereira joined a year later and has already had six fights in two divisions with this being his third title fight in a year.

Pereira is 100% committed to competition. He’s a high-level athlete, incredible striking skills, intimidating power and an unwavering mentality in the octagon.

Since Prochazka’s shoulder injury, Pereira has beaten three UFC Champions – Jan Blachowicz, Israel Adesanya and Sean Strickland. Pereira is the real deal while Jiri’s been watching too many Bruce Lee movies. I’m picking Alex Pereira to win by KO/TKO.