UFC 297: Allen vs Evloev Odds, Picks & Predictions

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18 January 2024

UFC 297: Allen vs Evloev Odds, Picks & Predictions

Two ranked featherweights kick off UFC 297's main card as Arnold Allen meets Movsar Evloev in the octagon. Evloev is a perfect 17-0 and our UFC betting picks are banking on his wrestling ability to be able to break down Allen's guard.

We have a battle between two ranked featherweight contenders kicking off the main card of UFC 297 as Arnold Allen takes on Movsar Evloev on Saturday night from Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.

UFC odds have Evloev as a sizable betting favorite at –200, while Allen returns at +160.

Here are my free betting picks for Allen vs. Evloev at UFC 297 in Toronto.

Arnold Allen vs Movsar Evloev fight odds

Allen vs Evloev picks

Fight prediction: Movsar Evloev moneyline

Despite sitting five spots behind Allen in the featherweight rankings, Evloev sits as a big –200 favorite, and for good reason. The Russian product is a perfect 17-0 as a professional and has relatively coasted through every fight in the UFC thus far.

Yeah, he has one split decision victory, but five of the other six unanimous decision victories saw at least one 30-27 scorecard in Evloev’s favor. He’s never been knocked down and has been taken down just twice outside of the weird fight against Mike Grundy, where Grundy kept shooting and landing takedowns that led to absolutely nothing.

Evloev’s strength is on the mat, and that is where we should expect him to be on Saturday. However, he can also hold his own in the striking department, landing 4.57 significant strikes per minute while defending at a 61% clip.

I don’t want to take anything away from Allen – he is a terrific mixed martial artist who is a spectacular 10-1 in the UFC. However, he got picked apart by an aging Max Holloway his last time out and only has two key wins in his tenure.

Prediction: Movsar Evloev moneyline (-200 at BetRivers)

Fight best bet: Movsar Evloev to win by decision

We can knock down Evloev’s -200 line to –114 if we take him to win via decision, and I think that is far and away the most likely result of this scrap. We know Evloev’s gameplan here: he is going to take Allen down and out-wrestle him for 15 minutes en route to a decision victory.

That has been his game plan throughout his entire UFC tenure, and it has yet to not work. Seven up, seven down, all decision victories.

On the flip side, Allen just survived five rounds against Holloway. If he can do that, then he can surely survive three against a wrestling-heavy Evloev.

Allen has never been finished inside the distance while 10 of Evloev’s 17 professional wins have come via decision, and not a single one of those finishes has occurred in this promotion.

Pick: Movsar Evloev to win by decision (-114 at BetRivers)

Allen vs Evloev betting preview

Simply put, Evloev is blowing through everyone in this division with his wrestling, and I don’t think Allen is going to be able to accumulate enough points in this scrap to keep up. I’m sure Allen will have his moments on the feet, but Evloev is poised and will be able to avoid the punishing shots and bring this fight to the mat.

Once there, I just don’t trust Allen enough to escape the strong wrestling of Evloev. Allen’s win over Dan Hooker was the highlight of his career thus far, but he just caught him early and was fighting in front of his home country.

Surprisingly, Evloev stats are even stronger than Allen’s in the striking department. I am not saying he’s a better striker, but in his UFC tenure, he has landed more significant strikes per minute at a higher accuracy while absorbing less significant strikes per minute.

Evloev can survive on the feet, and when this inevitably ends up on the mat, well, good luck to Allen