UFC 297: Curtis vs Barriault Odds, Picks & Predictions

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18 January 2024

UFC 297: Curtis vs Barriault Odds, Picks & Predictions

Chris "Action Man" Curtis might not be a premiere fighter in the UFC but he is prone to delivering exciting bouts, and his clash with Marc-Andre Barriault should be no exception. We expect this strike-fest to go Curtis' way, but where is the best value?

Chris Curtis vs. Marc-Andre Barriault is a sleeper bout that could potentially win the fight of the night honors as this featured attraction on the UFC 297 undercard takes place this Saturday, January 20, at the Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.

Curtis, winless in his last two outings, is trying to creep into the top ten rankings, and he’ll have his hands full against the very spry Barriault.

UFC odds have Curtis a -190 favorite, with Barriault a +160 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Curtis vs. Barriault at UFC 297.

Chris Curtis vs Marc-Andre Barriault fight odds

Curtis vs Barriault picks

Fight prediction: Curtis ML

At 36 years old and with a long MMA career behind him, it’s disappointing that Chris Curtis didn’t amount to more. Despite being a talented striker with great takedown defense, stopping power, and solid conditioning, Curtis is a middle-of-the-pack fighter who is hopelessly lost when not facing one-dimensional opponents. He’s 2-2 with one no-contest since 2022, and his being on this card has more to do with training buddy Sean Strickland headlining than his recent efforts.

However, he has a winnable fight at UFC 297 as Marc-Andre Barriault’s method of attack is to rush in and fight inside the pocket. Barriault has solid kickboxing fundamentals, though his best weapon is his conditioning and volume. Blow for blow, Curtis is the better striker and also thrives at fighting to a faster beat. With Barriault’s lack of a ground game or wrestling skills to grind Curtis out of his rhythm, Curtis’ accurate shots will carry the night.

We’ve seen Barriault take punishment in the early rounds in a way to potentially goad his opponents into wasting more energy, but Curtis’ conditioning won’t allow him to fall into that trap.

This could turn out to be a fun fight between mid-tier middleweights, and I expect Curtis to handle his business as he outworks an overly eager Barriault in the pocket to win.

Prediction: Chris Curtis moneyline (-190 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Over 2.5 rounds

Since joining the UFC in 2019, Barriault is 0-5 in fights where he loses the striking battle. Because he must be first, he’ll get right into Curtis’ range in hopes of strafing him and setting the pace. Though that is how Barriault tends to win his fights, it’s the wrong approach here.

He doesn’t have the style to trouble Curtis. No grappling, counter-striking, or awkwardness will immediately cause Curtis to internally shut down because he doesn’t like putting in the work to figure out the complexities. This figures to be a straight-up fight, which is exactly where Curtis excels.

Expect Curtis to comfortably win the first round, building a significant striking advantage that results in Barriault taking risks to dig himself out of a major deficit. Their durabilities will be on display as the fists fly, and this one will go into the later rounds.

Pick: Over 2.5 rounds (-160 at Bet99)

Curtis vs Barriault betting preview

A veteran of 41 fights and long-time sparring partner of champion Strickland, Curtis is worthy of his moniker "Action Man." He lands 5.30 significant strikes per minute and 17 of his 30 wins have come by knockout. Curtis isn’t afraid to get hit, but he is easy to frustrate, which has been his career-long Achilles' heel. We last saw Curtis at UFC 289 against Nassourdine Imavov, and that fight resulted in a no-contest due to an accidental headbutt.

Barriault is another striker who brings the heat each time he enters the octagon. The Quebec native lands 5.95 significant strikes per minute and has finishes in three of his five UFC wins. His reckless approach does see him take his share of punishment, but he can drown out his opponents with activity and overwhelm them later in the fight. He’s 3-2 in his last five fights, with his most recent performance a decision win over Eryk Anders — also at UFC 289 last June.

Both Curtis and Barriault’s average fight time hovers beyond the 10-minute mark, making it likely this fight will teeter towards going the distance. Also, each striker has a single submission win on his resume, and Curtis has a phenomenal 92% takedown defense rate. They also both have great chins and survival skills with both fighters only being finished twice in their MMA careers.