UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker Odds, Picks & Predictions

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11 January 2024

UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs Walker Odds, Picks & Predictions

Magomed Ankalaev hasn't exactly dominated in his recent fights despite still only having one loss on his UFC resume. And while another win against Johnny Walker is expected, there is no value on the straight-up market, so our betting picks dig deeper.

The first UFC Fight Night card of 2024 takes place this Saturday with a rematch between Magomed Ankalaev and Johnny Walker headlining the main event. These two light heavyweights previously met up last October, but that fight ended in a no-contest after Ankalaev landed an illegal knee.

UFC odds for that first bout had Ankalaev installed as a -375 favorite and he's even bigger chalk for the rematch, coming in at -475 with Walker at +375. Here are my best free UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 picks and predictions for January 13 from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas.

Magomed Ankalaev vs Johnny Walker fight odds

Ankalaev vs Walker picks

Fight prediction: Ankalaev

While the first fight between these two ended controversially in the first round, Ankalaev had the edge in that opening frame. Walker relied on leg kicks but Ankalaev landed the more powerful shots to the head and body and eventually got the takedown.

It's tough to see this fight going much differently because Ankalaev has more tools and is better defensively than the reckless Walker. That said, there's no value with Ankalaev at this price, especially with how underwhelming he's looked as a massive favorite over the last few years.

Add in the dangerous knockout power and unorthodox striking of Walker and this is a moneyline that is either a dog or pass spot. Avoid the moneyline here and look to the prop market for betting value.

Prediction: Ankalaev moneyline (-500 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Over 1.5 rounds

Walker has a reputation for being chinny but that's a bit inaccurate. It's more that he flops around like a whacky, inflatable, arm-flailing, tube man at a car dealership when he gets cracked, which tends to put him on the ugly end of highlight-reel knockouts.

He's been knocked out a modest four times in 29 career fights and he kept staggering to his feet after getting clocked in two of those, so his chin wasn't exactly the program. The biggest issue is he's hittable and leaves himself open with some of the crazy attacks he throws out. However, he's shown more patience in recent fights and Ankalaev hasn't been a finisher lately.

Although Ankalaev picked up a TKO victory against Anthony Smith in 2022, Smith was compromised by a broken ankle after a competitive opening round. That's the only fight in his previous five that ended by stoppage with bouts against Jan Blachowicz, Thiago Santos, Volkin Oezdemir, and Nikita Krylov all going the distance despite Ankalaev being a favorite in the -325 to -600 range.

Ankalaev hasn't shown much of a killer instinct and since he almost got caught by a flying knee when baited by Walker in the first fight, I'm expecting a cautious approach here. Take the Over 1.5 rounds.

Pick: Over 1.5 rounds (-170 at Bet99)

Ankalaev vs Walker betting preview

Ankalaev is the No. 3-ranked light heavyweight contender but he hasn't picked up a win since beating Anthony Smith in July 2022. He faced Blachowicz for the vacant belt later that year but ended up with a draw despite coming in as a -350 fave. He followed up on that with the no-contest against Walker and he'll need an impressive performance here if he wants to earn another title shot.

Ankalaev has only one loss in his MMA career and that came in his UFC debut when he dominated Paul Craig before getting caught in a Hail Mary submission with one second remaining in the fight. After that, he reeled off nine straight wins before the draw against Blachowicz, and it's worth mentioning that 23 of 25 media outlets gave him the decision in that championship bout.

The 31-year-old has a background in combat sambo and is a very well-rounded fighter who combines strong wrestling with powerful and accurate kickboxing.

Johnny Walker began his UFC career with three consecutive first-round knockout wins and Performance of the Night bonuses. However, he struggled after stepping up in competition and lost four of his next five fights. He has since turned things around, reeling off wins against Ion Cutelaba, Paul Craig, and Anthony Smith to climb to No. 7 in the light heavyweight rankings and set up this showdown with Ankalaev.

The Brazilian is a long and rangy striker who throws strikes from a variety of angles and is extremely dangerous with his knees and elbows. While he can look awkward at times with his movement, he also has scary power and a massive 82-inch reach.