UFC Fight Night: Matheus Nicolau vs Manel Kape Betting Analysis

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12 January 2024

UFC Fight Night: Matheus Nicolau vs Manel Kape Betting Analysis

UFC Fight Night is back to kick off the 2024 UFC fight schedule this weekend with a card full of awesome matchups across all divisions. The co-main event of this card will be a matchup between flyweight contenders Matheus Nicolau and Manel Kape–a rematch of their first meeting in 2021.

Nicolau vs. Kape Parlay

Pick: Kape to win by TKO +130.

Read more for the Nicolau vs. Kape betting analysis and prediction before placing any bets on this weekend’s MMA slate.

Nicolau vs. Kape Information

Matheus Nicolau vs Manel Kape

Location of the fight: UFC APEX, Las Vegas, Nevada, United States

Date & Time: January 13, 2024. 7 PM ET main card start

How to Watch: ESPN+

Last Fight Record

Nicolau is coming off a first-round KO loss to Brandon Royval last April.

Kape is coming off a unanimous decision win over Felipe dos Santos in September at UFC 293.

Nicolau vs. Kape Betting Analysis

Matheus Nicolau

Nicolau is a Brazilian mixed martial artist with a professional record of 19-3-1, including 5 TKO/KO victories and 5 submissions. He is a black belt in BJJ and he competed on The Ultimate Fighter before signing with the UFC; losing in the semifinals.

Nicolau is a 5’6” orthodox fighter with a 66” reach. In the octagon, he averages 3.66 significant strikes landed and 3.14 absorbed per minute. He also has an elite grappling skill set, of course, averaging 1.48 takedowns per 15 minutes and a stingy 93% takedown defense.

Manel Kape

Kape is an Angolan-Portuguese fighter with a professional MMA record of 19-6 with 11 TKO/KO wins and 5 submissions. He is looking to break into the top 5 of the flyweight division with a win this weekend after losing the first meeting against Nicolau. He’s the former Rizin bantamweight champion and KOC bantamweight champion.

Now, Kape is a flyweight with a height of 5’5” and a reach of 68” fighting out of the southpaw stance. He averages 5.12 significant strikes landed per minute while absorbing an average of 4.51. The striker also has a very solid 77% takedown defense.

Updates

No injuries have been reported to the UFC or ESPN.

Nicolau vs. Kape Betting Preview

After the Nicolau vs. Kape betting analysis, the only thing we have to do now is look at the betting lines, break down their first meeting in 2021, and try to find any adjustments they have made since that first meeting before we place any UFC bets this weekend.

Starting with the betting lines, Nicolau is the underdog coming into this one at +232 even though he won the first meeting. Kape is the -272 betting favorite. The bout is favored to end inside the distance at -135 and Kape is -110 to win inside the distance.

Now we can break down how their first fight went and how they’ve both changed as fighters. A lot of people, including Kape, thought he won that fight and the decision was wrong. It was a close fight because Kape didn’t take advantage of the opportunities he had in the early portion of the fight.

Kape has gotten better at takedown defense and the confidence is growing massively inside of him. Nicolau doesn’t look much different. In Nicolau’s last bout against Royval, he was doing the same thing as he always does–circle the cage and wait for his opponent to close the distance and then level-change for a takedown.

Brandon Royval did an incredible job by being ready for it and setting up a knee up the middle. This is something that Kape will most likely try to do as well because he knows what’s coming.

Nicolau vs. Kape Betting Prediction

After carefully considering the Nicolau vs. Kape betting analysis and previewing the styles of this matchup, the official prediction is that Kape will win this bout via TKO/KO. You can take him at -110 to win inside the distance or find him winning by TKO/KO at around +130.

Nicolau simply doesn’t have enough offensive threats to take Kape off the gas. Kape wants revenge and to stamp his way into the top of this exciting flyweight division. You might not like the way he talks, but he is a very talented fighter with the potential to finish anybody.

UFC predictions are the toughest to make in all of sports, so make sure you use this as a guide and continue to come here every week for the best betting advice in MMA.