UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Dober Odds, Picks & Predictions

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01 February 2024

UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs Dober Odds, Picks & Predictions

Neither Renato Moicano nor Drew Dober is liable to let this fight go the distance, but in a close matchup, which has the edge? Our UFC betting picks have your answers.

Renato Moicano vs. Drew Dober is our co-main event of this weekend’s edition of UFC Fight Night, taking place Saturday, February 3, at The Apex in Las Vegas.

This battle between two of the best finishers in the lightweight division has a great chance of earning fight of the night honors as these two battle to remain in the bubble for a major fight.

UFC odds have Moicano as a -180 favorite, and Dober is a +145 underdog.

Here are my free picks for Moicano vs. Dober at UFC Fight Night.

Renato Moicano vs Drew Dober fight odds

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Moicano vs Dober picks

Fight prediction: Moicano moneyline

It’s hard to pick a winner in this fight because each fighter has an equal chance of stopping the other. Dober is one of the best strikers in the division and has legitimate stopping power, but he surrenders if he gets taken down and can’t get back up. Moicano is a submission artist who is an absolute terror when he’s in control, but his chin is an absolute liability. So, we have to determine which one of these two is bringing something extra besides kryptonite to the table.

Recent form suggests that Moicano has more to offer. While both fighters are just one fight removed from a conclusive loss, Moicano has steadily improved his striking game so that he’s not entirely helpless in his stand-up game. He’s still vulnerable, though it might be enough to buy him some time and open Dober up for a takedown. I believe Dober is starting to show the wear of his long career. While it is unwise to stand and bang with him, Moicano’s slight adjustments to his offense might allow him to take advantage of Dober’s inefficient takedown defense.

At the same time, Dober doesn’t need all the time in the world to hurt Moicano. As torn as I am, I’m going to pick Moicano to keep the distance and find a way to put Dober in a bad spot in what is a 50/50 fight.

Prediction: Dober moneyline (-180 at Bet99)

Fight best bet: Moicano by KO or submission

Moicano has been knocked out three times in four defeats. A third of Dober’s losses have come via submission. These two fighters know how to finish their opponents when they get them in the right spot and aggressively pursue that finish from the start.

There’s a chance that both are fully aware of the danger the other possesses and this ends up being a match consisting of potshots, leg kicks, and ugly clinches, but these two are likely to throw caution to the wind and try to make something happen before they move on to Plan B.

Moicano’s average fight time hovers around nine minutes. Dober’s fights last two minutes less on average. However, Dober’s first-round knockout loss to Matt Frevola was his first knockout loss since 2011, which suggests that he might be losing his vaunted damage resistance. Dober’s defensive issues regarding takedowns are known, and he seems to use his chin as his shield for too long and only defends 51% of significant strikes.

Though Moicano is the all-around better defender in strikes and takedowns, he tends to fight with his chin straight up. If Dober gets inside and pressures him, he can find a knockout blow with either a right hook or an uppercut up the middle.

I’m going to go with Moicano winning by KO or submission.

Pick: Moicano to win by knockout or submission (+125 at Bet99)

Moicano vs Dober betting preview

Moicano was a regional standout in Brazil and holds a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu. He has 10 submission finishes in 17 wins. In addition to his strong takedown and submission game, Moicano is a Muay Thai practitioner and has demonstrated improved striking skills to round out his offense.

Dober remains a reliable source of entertainment as the lightweight division’s most formidable striker. His sharp striking and fight-stopping power make him a tough ask for anybody not equipped with an iron jaw.

Moicano’s strategy will be to find a way to get Dober down on the ground while getting tagged by his power shots. Despite Dober’s background in wrestling and BJJ, he is practically defenseless on the ground and must catch Moicano as he darts in. Neither fighter has won a fight by decision since 2018, with all their victories coming inside the distance.