Winnipeg Jets vs. Anaheim Ducks Prediction, Preview, and Odds

statsalt.com

22 March 2023

This isn’t a great matchup tonight in the Western Conference between the Winnipeg Jets, comfortably in a playoff spot, and the Anaheim Ducks, who are right in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes as one of the worst teams in the NHL. This will be the third and final game of the season between these teams with the Jets winning both previous games at home in Winnipeg, winning 3-2 on November 17th and 5-2 on December 4th. The puck drops for this last game at the Honda Center in Anaheim, California at 10 pm EST.

Jets look to build momentum in Wild Card spot

The Winnipeg Jets are having a good season, comfortably in a Wild Card spot with a 40-29-3 record. They’ve struggled a bit recently though with just five wins in their last 15 games. On Tuesday night they beat the Coyotes 2-1 at home. Despite just winning by a goal, they dominated the Yotes by an expected goal rate of 3.68-1.92 but got outshot 30-25.

— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) March 22, 2023

The Jets haven’t been all that great offensively, scoring the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 30.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.24) and the 15th-most high-danger shots in the league. Winnipeg has scored on 19.8% of their power play opportunities. They’re led in scoring this season by Kyle Connor (73 points), Mark Scheifele (38 goals), and Josh Morrissey (54 assists).

Winnipeg has been very good defensively this season, allowing an average of 2.81 per game, the eleventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 30.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.09) and the 15th-fewest high-danger shots. The Jets have the second-best penalty kill in the NHL this season, killing off 83.7% of their penalties. One of the best goalies in the league, Connor Hellebuyck, is projected to start in goal tonight. Hellebuyck has a 31-22-2 record, a 2.59 GAA, a .918 save percentage, and three shutouts this season.

Ducks look to bounce back at home from blowout loss to the Flames

The Anaheim Ducks are one of the worst teams in the NHL this season, right in the Connor Bedard sweepstakes with a 23-37-10 record. They only have one win in their last five games, coming off a 5-1 loss at home on Sunday against the Flames. They were dominated by Calgary, getting outshot 43-20 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 4.06-2.39.

— Anaheim Ducks (@AnaheimDucks) March 22, 2023

Anaheim has really struggled on both ends of the ice. They’ve scored an average of only 2.55 goals per game, the second-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.56) and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Ducks have the second-worst power play in the NHL, scoring on just 16.2% of their chances. Young superstar Trevor Zegras lead them in scoring this season with 58 points, 22 goals, and 36 assists this season.

The Ducks have been the worst defensive team, allowing the most goals in the NHL, an average of 4.01 goals per game on an average of 39.1 shots allowed per game, the most in the league. They’ve given up the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.82) and the second-most high-danger shots. Anaheim has the fourth-worst penalty kill in the NHL, at just 4%. They’re projected to start John Gibson tonight. He’s struggled this season with a 14-27-8 record, a 3.89 GAA, a .902 save percentage, and a shutout.

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Full-Game Side Bet

Rating:

The Jets are the far superior team in this game on both ends of the ice and I expect them to complete the season sweep of the Ducks tonight on the road. They won both previous games this season between these teams already. Winnipeg has been much better offensively, scoring the twelfth-fewest (still low) goals in the NHL, but they’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals and the 15th-most high-danger shots in the league. The Ducks on the other hand have scored just the second-fewest goals in the NHL, having generated the fewest expected goals and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. Defensively, Anaheim’s the worst team in hockey, allowing the most goals, giving up the most shots, the second-most expected goals, and the second-most high-danger shots in the NHL. Meanwhile, the Jets' defense has been fantastic this season, allowing the eleventh-fewest goals in the NHL with one of the best goalies in the NHL in Connor Hellebuyck in goal. I expect the Jets to shut down the Ducks’ struggling offense while easily outscoring them to win by multiple goals.

Take the Jets to cover the puck line on the road.

Prediction: Jets -1.5 (+110)

Full-Game Total Pick

Rating:

Both of these teams have trended under. The under has been extremely profitable this season in Jets games, with the under going 45-21-6 on the year and 4-1 in their last five games. The Ducks have trended under recently as well, with the under going 6-4 in their last ten games. Winnipeg has been great defensively, allowing the eleventh-fewest goals in the NHL with one of the best goalies in the NHL in Connor Hellebuyck in goal. They’ve given up the 15th-fewest expected goals and the 15th-fewest high-danger shots in the league. Anaheim has really struggled to score this season, scoring just the second-fewest goals in the NHL, having generated the fewest expected goals and the fewest high-danger shots in the league. The Jets haven’t been great offensively either, scoring the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL. I expect this game to stay under the total.