Yankees bet on Juan Soto, make offseason's first splash

In his MLB Insider, Denver Gazette beat writer Luke Zahlmann takes you around the Rockies and MLB:

Juan Soto is one of the league's great rarities, and even that word may not be powerful enough to describe his unique path.

He was traded for the second time in as many seasons Wednesday to the New York Yankees for a haul headlined by right-handed starter Michael King as part of a five-player package. Trent Grisham joined Soto as the two new players in pinstripes.

The deal came almost exactly 16 months after he was dealt from the Washington Nationals to San Diego for a six-player package that included former top prospects MacKenzie Gore and CJ Abrams. Being traded twice in two years is not abnormal in baseball, but a player receiving comparisons to Ted Williams is rarely shipped away once in a career, much less per year.

The Padres, Mets and even Yankees showed last season how little finances impact winning anymore, and also how different baseball’s future landscape looks.

San Diego had little choice in its small rebuild. After a disappointing campaign that saw the Padres — who were once tied with Atlanta for sixth in World Series betting odds — miss the playoffs, reports surfaced about the team’s uneven financial future. Manager Bob Melvin also left the club for division rival San Francisco, and ever since, rumors spread about Soto and other high-priced players on the team being dealt. Jake Cronenworth is also on the block according to reports less than a year after he signed a seven-year $80 million extension.

Soto appeared to be the answer when San Diego traded for him at the 2022 trade deadline. In the abbreviated stint with the Padres, he even helped lead the team to the National League Championship Series before it lost to Philadelphia.

New York is seeing, and expecting, the same.

“They clearly made it known that this was a deal and a player [they wanted],” Padres general manager A.J. Preller told MLB.com’s Bryan Hoch. “Brian (Cashman) is pretty direct, and I think they were pretty clear. Everybody understood they had a need and Juan is an incredible player who fits the need really well. When you have two teams that line up and you have a team that’s calling you consistently, you feel this is something that has a chance to happen.”

The Yankees may receive a payout, or they may suffer the same fate.

New York was a shell of itself last season. Instead of living up to the Bronx Bombers, it was one of the league’s worst offenses. The Yankees finished second-to-last in team batting average ahead of only the Oakland A’s. Their on-base percentage finished in the bottom five and their team slugging percentage was 22nd behind the Colorado Rockies and Kansas City Royals — two of the three teams tied for the best draft odds after 100-plus-loss seasons.

Soto is the answer, in their minds. New York also acquired Alex Verdugo to set up an outfield of Aaron Judge in center field, and Verdugo and Soto in the corners. It even added Grisham as a fourth outfielder for depth in the Soto deal.

The player most impacted may be Judge. His spot in center field is a risky one, especially for a player who played 106 games last year due to a sprained toe. Conversely, Soto’s presence in the lineup figures to earn the 2022 American League Most Valuable Player more hittable pitches.

Just like the original San Diego deal, the Yankees are taking a big risk.

King carried a 2.73 earned run average in 20 second-half appearances and had even better marks if you isolate August (2.37 ERA) and September (2.27 ERA). Drew Thorpe was ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 99th-best prospect in baseball and Randy Vásquez was the organization’s 13th-ranked prospect.

The top five of a potential Yankees lineup will likely include D.J. LeMahieu, Soto, Judge, Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo. Of the five, four are at least 30 years old and three failed to reach 105 games played last season due to various injuries.

The package San Diego received came without a Soto contract extension, either.

He will likely enter free agency after the year, and with agent Scott Boras running the show, he will max out any potential contract — some have already projected Soto’s deal will be north of $500 million all told.

New York fans have been pleading for a “big move” in recent years. The disappointment of missing out on Bryce Harper still looms large.

A team that already struggled with depth last season is even shallower now, but the key move of the offseason so far belongs to the Yankees. Social media graphics will be posted with the projected 2024 lineup and betting odds will shift for the Yankees' chances of ending their 14-year World Series drought.

Only Jorge Posada, Jason Giambi and Bobby Abreu have tallied a .400-or-better on-base percentage for the Yankees — not only is Soto’s career mark better than that (.421) but he has reached the benchmark in each of his six major-league seasons.

San Diego learned quickly how much impact one player can make, but also how little one player can do to stop a downward spiral. New York is betting on the latter never coming to fruition, and after its worst season since 1995, the Yankees needed a spark.

Prellar knows all too well how quickly a spark can fade.

What I'm hearing

-- Shohei Ohtani’s free agency has been a storyline all offseason, for better or worse.

The Japanese, two-way superstar and two-time American League MVP is still on the market, and the reviews of his free agency treks have been mixed. MLB Network Insider Jon Morosi reported Thursday on the Dan Patrick Show that the Dodgers, Angels, Blue Jays, Giants and Cubs are still in contention for his services, while other sports personalities have begun to criticize his privacy in picking a new team.

Either way, his choice will likely start a chain reaction for the MLB offseason. So far, among the top 2024 free agents, only Aaron Nola, Eduardo Rodriguez and Sonny Gray have signed with new teams while players like Cody Bellinger, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Blake Snell wait their respective turns.

Morosi also reported that Ohtani’s decision may come before next week. With the secrecy of his search, it is hard to imagine anyone knowing where, or when, he will sign.

-- Bellinger is represented in free agency by Boras, too, and reports of a high price tag have begun to funnel out of prospective teams and representatives.

The Chicago Cubs gave Bellinger a one-year, prove-it deal last offseason to the tune of $17.5 million, but the former National League MVP is reportedly seeking north of $300 million this offseason. Ohtani signing, and leaving a wake of desperate teams, will only aid his chances of getting it.

So far, the same teams who have been named in Ohtani rumors are in Bellinger rumors, and the former is likely holding up the process for the latter. His downward spiral before last year’s resurgence is likely involved, too.

Bellinger hit .239, .165 and .210 respectively in his final three seasons with the Dodgers. His next team will have to take a risk to bring him on board, and the price tag only makes it more dicey.

What I'm seeing

-- If Colorado is looking for a winning template, it should look no further than Arizona.

The Diamondbacks signed Eduardo Rodriguez to a four-year deal worth $80 million on Wednesday and continued the momentum the team created with its breakout trip to the World Series last season. For comparison, after trips to the playoffs in 2017 and 2018, the Rockies chose to rid themselves of some of their best pieces, like LeMahieu, without viable alternatives.

Winning teams create momentum with their moves, and losing ones drain it. Colorado is loading up on pitching in hopes that the moves can begin to create an avalanche. Their division foe is an ideal blueprint.

Minor League Minute

-- The Rockies are on the verge of an international talent influx, and Vice President of International Scouting and Development Rolando Fernandez earned International Scout of the Year at the winter meetings for his efforts.

Colorado’s top-two-ranked prospects are both products of the organization’s increased focus internationally, and both Adael Amador and Yanquiel Fernandez may impact the team’s chance as soon as 2024. Ezequiel Tovar was also an international signing and was a finalist for a Gold Glove award last season after manning shortstop for the Rockies in 153 games.

Rolando Fernandez is one of the team’s keys to a winning future, and recent results have shown he is up to the task.