Yankees vs Mariners Prediction, Picks, Odds

New York is starting to heat up and is on the verge of sweeping the Mariners on the road. Despite the home side having the pitching advantage on paper, our MLB betting picks expect the Yankees to make it five straight wins.

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The New York Yankees are just a game away from sweeping the Seattle Mariners and heading to Los Angeles with a five-game winning streak in their pocket. In their way is George Kirby who has been pitching well this year, but when New York's on fire, it's hard to take down regardless of who's on the mound.

Let’s break down Yankees vs. Mariners MLB odds as I provide you with my best MLB picks for Wednesday night's main event..

Yankees vs Mariners odds

Yankees vs Mariners predictions

Once again, I’m really loving the value here with the New York Yankees. I say this despite 67% of the bets and 61% of the money coming in on New York, which makes this a very public side.

I respect the work George Kirby has done with a great 2.4% walk rate and 3.24 xERA, but pitching to contact doesn’t work against everybody. His low 20.1% strikeout rate and the walk rate speak to how much he’s relied on getting outs via balls in play, but with a ground ball rate around 42% and a .252 expected batting average, I’m not sold he can pitch to contact against the Yankees.

New York is also going to get some decent innings from Clarke Schmidt, who despite has had his own personal struggles in 2023 should provide the Yanks enough. The hurler had a rough start to May but has since turned the ship around and produced very respectable outings. AFter getting shelled for seven homers in April, Schmidt has been taken yard just once.

So with some success against Kirby, I expect the visitors to pull off the sweep in Seattle.

My best bet: Yankees moneyline (+125 at DraftKings)

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Yankees vs Mariners moneyline analysis

Once again, I’m really loving the value here with the Yankees. New York is on the verge of a sweep and it's priced at plus money, making the ML choice even sweeter. It's easy to see why. On the road, inferior pitcher, but nonetheless the Yankees are red hot on offense at the moment and Kirby could get cooked in this spot.

Schmidt's ERA of 5.58 is concerning on paper but a lot of that damage came from earlier starts this month where he gave up four runs to Cleveland followed by seven to the Oakland Triple A's. However, the 27-year-old hurler has had back-to-back solid outings against the Reds and Orioles, and I'm expecting more of the same tonight while the Bronx Bombers sound off on Kirby.

Yankees vs Mariners Over/Under analysis

I like the Over here, ultimately. I think the total of 7.5 reflects some market skepticism towards the Mariners' offense, but also respects Kirby too much in what is not a very good matchup for him. Should both starters allow at least two runs, which is very possible, this total is a dangerous one for books to be hanging.

With that, I will point out that 85% of the bets are on the Over 7.5 here but just 67% of the money, so perhaps once again I’m going to be in hot water taking the public side. I will also say that there’s nothing wrong with taking a public bet, as long as you understand why the public is on the bet and you can back it up with the numbers. New York is arguably the most public team in the league, and with that people are going to expect this offense to score a lot of runs. I do think, however, Kirby warrants a fade.

Yankees vs Mariners game info

Starting pitchers

Clarke Schmidt (2-5, 5.58 ERA): Schmidt's ERA in the month of May stands at 4.32, but after originally sitting at 6.84 ERA, it’s a steady improvement. After allowing seven home runs in the first month of the season, Schmidt has allowed just one since.

George Kirby (5-4, 3.43 ERA): Kirby is coming off a start in which he allowed seven earned runs over 4 2/3 innings in what was one of two bad starts he’s produced this year. He allowed four home runs last time out after allowing just three in his previous nine starts.

Latest injuries

Trend to know

The Over is 6-0 in Yankees last six when their opponent scores two runs or less in their previous game. Find more MLB betting trends for Yankees vs Mariners