Yankees vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds

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27 April 2023

Yankees vs Rangers Prediction, Picks, Odds

New York's bats finally woke up recently, but with Gerrit Cole on the mound, it might not need much offense to take down the Texas Rangers. See where our best bet lies in our MLB pick for the Yankees vs. Rangers.

The New York Yankees have finally awoken their bats after a 12-6 win last night, breaking a three-game losing streak in which they totaled just four runs. In case the runs don't pour on again, they do have the relief of having their ace Gerrit Cole (4-0, 0.79 ERA) taking the mound tonight in the opening game of a four-game road set with the Texas Rangers.

The Rangers were off to a blistering 14-7 start but will come into tonight coming off of an embarrassing three-game sweep by the Reds — allowing 17 runs across the series. Can New York keep the runs pouring in and assist Cole to another win, or will Texas stop the bleeding?

Find out in my free MLB picks for the Yankees vs Rangers matchup on Thursday, April 27th.

Yankees vs Rangers odds

Yankees vs Rangers predictions

As has been the case for over a century, expectations are always sky high for the New York Yankees heading into each season. A 12-7 start was satisfactory in that regard, but things have turned south in just the last week. Losers of four of their last six, the Yanks now sit just three games above .500 and fourth in the extremely tough AL East.

Yesterday's 12-run performance was a much-needed confidence builder after failing to score more than three runs in a game since April 20. Anthony Volpe (2-for-3, 3 R, 3 RBI), Gleyber Torres (2-for-5, 1 HR, 2 R, 2 RBI), and Aaron Judge (3-for-4, 1 R, 3 RB) all poured it on yesterday. Judge had a slight scare after jamming his hand/wrist while sliding into third base, but he ultimately returned for his next AB.

And while it would be a great confidence builder to put up another barrage of runs on Thursday night, it may not be entirely necessary.

Gerrit Cole will take the mound in the opening game of a four-game set with the Texas Rangers and carries with him a clean 4-0 record and an otherworldly 0.79 ERA. Cole's last outing was arguably his worst on the season, allowing four hits and two walks in just 5 2/3 innings of scoreless work, but N.Y. went on to win that game 3-2

He has fared well against this Rangers roster as well. Robbie Grossman is the lone name on Texas' roster to have sustained a level of success against Cole (4-for-10, 1 HR). Among the five offensive WAR leaders for the Rangers this season, Marcus Semien (.229 BA, 10 Ks) Nathaniel Lowe (.125 BA, 7 Ks), and Josh Jung (1-for-3) have had unconvincing results, and Corey Seager and Jonah Heim have yet to face Cole in their career (plus Seager is on the 10-day IL).

Given the Yankees have seemingly broken the seal on their offense and with Cole due for a quality outing, there's certainly room here for them to win by an appreciable margin.

My best bet: Yankees -1.5 (+100 at DraftKings)

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Yankees vs Rangers moneyline analysis

Andrew Heaney will take the mound for the Rangers tonight and while he has a fair track record against New York's roster (.261 BA allowed, 25.0% strikeout rate), it is anchored by performances against part-time bats.

If you remove the likes of Aaron Hicks (0-for-7) and Jose Trevino (0-for-4), the rest of the team has put together a .310 batting average and a .552 slugging percentage. Obviously, this is a relatively small sample in comparison, but both marks would obviously top the majors this year (.279 BA and .509 SLG are the leading marks).

And if Heaney is roughed up early and often, the Rangers' bullpen isn't good enough to compensate enough. Their 3.49 collective ERA is not bad by any means, but it only ranks just above the league average (12th). Compare that to the Yankees, who carry a relief ERA of 2.53 — the second-best mark on the season.

To make matters worse, there aren't other edges to hand to Texas. New York has been an above-average fielding team this year (0.2 defensive WAR) whereas the Rangers have been among the league's worst (-6.5 WAR, 25th).

Yankees vs Rangers Over/Under analysis

The total opened at 7.5 and some books have since moved to 8.0.

The Yankees have played 16-9 to the Under this year (64.0%), the highest rate of Unders by any team by a wide margin. In fact, the gap between them and the second Under-friendliest team (Toronto) is as large as the gap between the second and seventh-highest rates of Unders.

On the road, however, they have favored Overs thus far (5-4). They've also played to two straight Overs, but it's worth noting that they played to four straight Unders and a 9-1 record to the Under in the stretches prior to that.

Conversely, Texas is the league's most Over-friendly team on the year. It has gone 16-7-1 to the Over (69.6%) and has done so at the second-highest total differential to boot. At home, its Over rate is even higher, having gone 8-3-1 (72.7%).

The Rangers have gone 6-1-1 to the Over in their last eight, and in fact, they have gone 13-3-1 to the Over now in their last 17 games.

Yankees vs Rangers game info

Yankees vs Rangers betting preview

Starting pitchers

Gerrit Cole (4-0, 0.79 ERA): The five-time All Star has been one of the league's best pitchers for 8+ years now and is still looking to secure his first ever Cy Young award (he has finished second twice, and three other times in the top five). He has been lights out this season with a 0.79 ERA and 0.79 WHIP, but is coming off a "down" performance in which he struck out just four while allowing four hits and two walks (but no runs) in 5 2/3 innings of work.

Andrew Heaney (2-1, 4.34 ERA): Heaney was an average starter for most of his career before putting together an impressive stop with the Dodgers (3.10 ERA) last year. He landed a two-year $25 million deal this past offseason with the Rangers, and outside of a shaky first start (7 ER in 2.2 IP), he has been well worth the money (2 ER in 16 IP since).