2022 British Open modeling strategy, odds, picks, field

The British Open Championship takes place at St. Andrew's Old Course in 2022. Rory McIlroy is the favorite to win the Claret Jug. Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas and Matt Fitzpatrick are the other players who are in the field. The statistical model for the tournament is quite simplified and focuses on the core stats that should lead to success at the Old course.

The driving distance of the Old Course is more important than the driving accuracy. Big hitters should bring a huge advantage to the course. The current weather forecast is good. The course measures 7,300 yards. In 2015, the top-five players in driving distances finished tied for 10th or better.

Bryson DeChambeau is the leader in driving distance across the last 12 qualifying rounds. Wyndham Clark is second, Cameron Young is third, Dustin Johnson is fourth and Rory McIlroy is fifth.

Zach Johnson won the last Open Championship played at this track. He finished second in the field in good drives gained. The last two winners at the Open were Morikawa and Shane Lowry. Strokes-Gained: Approach is the most important statistic. It has a 70 percent correlation with finishing position.

Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Harold Varner III, Shane Lowry and Viktor Hovland are the current British Open approach leaders.

Jordan Spieth led the field for the week in par-4 efficiency at the Open Championship. Five of the 14 par 4 holes at St. Andrew's are among the most difficult holes on the course. Four of them are also among their easiest holes historically.

Xander Schauffele is the 12-round leader in SG. Rory McIlroy is second, Corey Conners is third, Shane Lowry is fourth and Cameron Young is fifth.

Key Stat #4 is Birdies or Better Gained. Tiger Woods won the 2000 Open Championship at St. Andrew's. Zach Johnson finished third in this category for the week in the most recent Open. There's not a lot of wind in forecast.

Rory McIlroy is the 12-round leader in birdies gained. Patrick Cantlay is second, Scottie Scheffler third, Cameron Young fourth, Keegan Bradley fifth.

St. Andrew's Old Course greens are easier to hit than at tour stops. The Old course greens feature heavy sloping and undulations.

2022 British Open modeling strategy, odds, picks, field. The course has yielded high winning scores.

Lucas Herbert is the leader in three-putt avoidance. Hideki Matsuyama is second, Guido Migliozzi is third, Abraham Ancer is fourth and Zach Johnson is fifth.