2023-24 NHL Calder Trophy Odds: Connor Bedard is an odds-on favorite
It isn’t every season that there’s an odds-on favorite to win the Calder Trophy. But it also isn’t every season that a player like Connor Bedard enters the NHL.
Considered to be the best prospect since Connor McDavid broke into the league in 2015, Bedard is -125 to be named Rookie of the Year in 2023-24, which puts him well ahead of second-favorite Luke Hughes (+700) and third choice Logan Cooley (+800).
The Calder Trophy is normally an unpredictable market -- Connor McDavid didn’t win it in his rookie year -- but we did see preseason favorite Matty Beniers take home the award in 2022-23. Beniers was a +400 favorite before Opening Night.
2023-24 Calder Trophy Odds
Connor Bedard -125
Luke Hughes +700
Logan Cooley +800
Adam Fantilli +1000
Devon Levi +1800
Matthew Knies +2000
Shane Wright +2000
Brandt Clarke +2000
Leo Carlsson +2500
Simon Nemec +3000
David Jiricek +3000
Luke Evangelista +3000
David Reinbacher +4000
Simon Edvinsson +4000
Tye Kartye +5000
Dustin Wolf +5000
Jesper Wallstedt +6000
Calder Trophy sleeper picks & analysis
You can feel pretty confident that Bedard is going to get the most betting attention in this market by a wide margin, but it’s really hard for me to get on board with the idea of laying -125 in an inherently volatile market. We know Bedard is one of the most impressive prospects in NHL history, but the leap from playing against teenagers to professional NHLers can’t be overstated. It may not be a linear transition for the new face of the Chicago Blackhawks, which is why I’ll take a few shots deeper down the board.
I will say that I was tempted by Logan Cooley, but he’s taken some money over the past few weeks and has seen his price cut in half. If Cooley starts a little slow and his price drifts back up into the teens, I would be interested in adding him later in the year because he should have plenty of opportunity to produce as the No. 2 center for the improved Arizona Coyotes, but the price right now just isn’t deep enough to take on Bedard.
Instead, I’ll take a shot on another standout from the 2023 NHL Draft.
Leo Carlsson, Anaheim Ducks (+2500)
The most important thing about betting the Calder Trophy is making sure your picks have a viable path to success. And Leo Carlsson, the No. 2 overall pick from the 2023 NHL Draft, should get every chance to win a top-six role on a terrible team. Carlsson is projected to be the Ducks’ No. 3 center behind Trevor Zegras and Mason McTavish, but Zegras still doesn’t have a contract and this is McTavish’s second year, so it’s easy to see a path for Carlsson winning the second-line role ahead of McTavish.
And while there isn’t much hope for the Ducks to contend this season, they do have some capable veterans that they’ll be happy to plug in around Carlsson like Alex Killorn, Ryan Strome, Adam Henrique and/or Troy Terry. There’s a chance he posts some decent point totals right out of the gate.
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