2023 ALDS odds, picks: Rangers, Twins have an uphill battle to climb

The Wild Card round is in the books.

After a couple of days off, the Divisional Series kicks off Saturday afternoon in Baltimore as the Orioles host the Texas Rangers in a best-of-five bout.

The other three remaining series will also start play on Saturday, so let’s get to it.

Here’s how I’m betting on each series in Junior Circuit, and who I think will advance on to the AL Championship round, with odds from FanDuel Sportsbook.

Rangers (+100) vs. Orioles (-122)

Oddsmakers expect this to be a tight series, but only one of them has a clear health advantage.

The Rangers come into this one without three of their top-of-the-line starters: Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Jon Gray.

And after using Jordan Montgomery and Nathan Eovaldi during the Wild Card round, it appears they’ll be running out Dane Dunning or Andrew Heaney for Game 1, and likely the other for another start if the series goes long.

That’s not to mention Texas’ bullpen, which posted a 4.77 ERA (7th-highest) during the regular season.

While they aren’t the biggest names in baseball, the Orioles’ pitching staff comes in much stronger.

Kyle Bradish, who finished third in the AL in ERA (2.83) and fourth in FIP (3.27), will get the ball in Game 1. Grayson Rodriguez, one of the top pitching prospects in baseball, will pitch Game 2 after finishing the season with a 2.58 ERA in his final 13 starts.

The Rangers can mash (233 regular season home runs, T-3rd most), but the Orioles hitters aren’t too far behind in terms of talent.

It’s too bad we can’t see this Rangers rotation at full strength – with the pitching advantage as it is, I’m taking the Orioles.

I expect Montgomery or Eovaldi to win the Rangers at least one game on the mound, so if you’re looking for a little more juice, take the Orioles to win in four (+430) or five games (+340).

Twins (+122) vs. Astros (-150)

The reigning champs are the clear favorite here, and I see little reason to bet against them.

Minnesota’s major advantage in this series is its rotation, but after two Wild Card games, they’ll start Bailey Ober in Game 1, who is a step down from Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray.

Perhaps the Astros’ biggest weakness is their rotation depth, which may not be as tested during a short series.

Co-aces Justin Verlander and Framber Valdez will get the ball during Games 1 and 2 at Minute Maid Park, giving them a solid shot at going up 2-0.

The Twins (109 wRC+) and Astros (112 wRC+) posted similar numbers with the bat overall this season, but that undersells how hot Houston was over the season’s final months.

Since Aug. 1, the Astros’ 128 wRC+ trails only the Braves, and their lineup is finally all healthy at the same time.

After dealing with a thumb injury early on, Jose Altuve hit a monster .311/.393/.522 across 90 games while Yordan Alvarez put up a whopping 170 wRC+ despite dealing with injuries of his own. They also got Michael Brantley back in late August after missing more than a year with a shoulder injury.

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The Twins, meanwhile, come in a bit hobbled. Although they looked good in the Wild Card series, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis had just recently been sidelined with health problems of their own, and the injury-plagued Byron Buxton hasn’t played since early August with a hamstring strain.

The Astros also have something most of the Twins don’t: playoff experience. I like Houston to – for the seventh straight season – advance to the ALCS, and I think they could make quick work of Minnesota. You can get them to sweep at +520 and win in four games at +370 with FanDuel.