ALCS Game 1: Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros

Forbes

15 October 2023

After battling for AL West supremacy all season, the Texas Rangers and Houston Astros meet again on Sunday for Game 1 of the American League Championship Series.

This is familiar territory for the Astros, who are back in the ALCS for the seventh year in a row and are the current World Series favorites. They’ll host the first two games of the series in Houston as the higher seed in this matchup after edging out the Rangers for the division title in the regular season.

Texas, on the other hand, hasn’t been to the ALCS since 2011. This marks the first time these franchises have clashed in the postseason, making this rivalry matchup even more exciting.

Game Details

Matchup: Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Date: Sunday, Oct. 15
Time: 7:15 p.m. CST / 8:15 p.m. EST
Location: Minute Maid Park (Houston, TX)

Odds Summary

Moneyline: Rangers +115, Astros -140
Runline: Rangers +1.5 (-175), Astros -1.5 (+145)
Total: Over/Under 8.5 (-120/+100)

Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. Subject to change.

Last Time Out

The Rangers easily finished off the 101-win Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, sweeping the O’s in a 7-1 rout at home. Texas improved to 5-0 this postseason behind a gem from Nathan Eovaldi, who fired seven innings of one-run ball while striking out seven. The Rangers’ lineup gave him plenty of support with 11 hits, including three homers.

The Astros needed an extra day to polish off the Minnesota Twins, squeaking out a 3-2 win in Game 4 on Thursday. Jose Urquidy stepped up over 5 ⅔ innings, yielding just three hits and two runs. Houston scored all three of its runs on a pair of homers, and its bullpen shut the door on the AL Central champions.

Moneyline

With three-time Cy Young winner Justin Verlander on the mound, the Astros are listed as home favorites on the moneyline for Game 1 of the ALCS.

Verlander was excellent in his first postseason start, logging six shutout innings against the Twins in Game 1 last Saturday. The 40-year-old ace will be working on a full week of rest and has allowed just one run and nine hits in 19 innings over his last three starts.

He’ll go up against Rangers lefty Jordan Montgomery, who got roughed up by the Orioles for five runs (four earned) on nine hits in four innings in the ALDS. It was his first bad start in a while, however, as he threw seven scoreless innings against the Tampa Bay Rays in the Wild Card Round and gave up just two runs over his final four starts of the regular season.

Unfortunately for Montgomery, Houston was one of the best teams in baseball against left-handed pitchers this year. The Astros led the American League with a 122 wRC+ and .347 wOBA versus southpaws during the regular season, slashing .270/.339/.470 against them. With a right-handed heavy lineup featuring Jose Altuve, Jose Abreu, Alex Bregman and Jeremy Pena, Houston is a tough matchup for Montgomery.

Texas had the AL’s best offense during the regular season, so things won’t be easy for Verlander either. However, the future Hall of Famer has a wealth of postseason experience to rely on, and the Astros dominated the season series 9-4. Houston has the edge here.

Pick: Astros -140

Runline

While the Astros look like the better bet to win this game outright, it should be a close contest that could be decided by one run, making the Rangers the more appealing play on the runline.

Montgomery and Verlander were key trade deadline acquisitions for their respective clubs, but Montgomery was arguably the better pickup. He went 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA, a 1.09 WHIP and a 4.5 K/BB ratio in 11 starts for Texas, while Verlander was 7-3 with a 3.31 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP and a 4.5 K/BB ratio in 11 starts for Houston.

Both starters have been nearly identical from a performance standpoint over the last few months, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them lock horns in a pitching duel on Sunday. Both lineups will be a bit rusty after several days off, and this could easily be a one-run game.

Three of the Astros’ nine wins over the Rangers this season were decided by one run, and Texas has the talent to win this game outright as well. Montgomery has yet to face Houston this season, which should work to his advantage as the Astros will be unfamiliar with him.

The Rangers will be extra motivated to beat their division rivals after narrowly losing the AL West and won’t go down easily, so back Texas to cover the runline even if it loses.

Pick: Rangers +1.5 (-175)

Over/Under

Both offenses were elite this season, ranking top three in the American League in runs scored. However, for the reasons outlined above, this game will likely be low-scoring and hit the Under.

Verlander was lights-out in his first postseason start and has been practically unhittable lately. He’s also an exceptional big-game pitcher who has thrived in the ALCS, going 17-11 with a 3.54 ERA in October and 7-4 with a 3.01 ERA in the ALCS specifically.

Montgomery was tremendous during the second half of the season and completely stifled the Rays in the first round of the playoffs. If he brings his best stuff on Sunday, Houston will also struggle to score.

Both teams have had multiple days off and won’t have their timing at the plate, which should lead to many zeros on the scoreboard early. Both clubs went under 8.5 total runs in their most recent games, so expect another low-scoring affair on Sunday evening. The plus-odds make the Under even more attractive from a betting perspective, too.

Pick: Under 8.5 (+100)

Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images