2023 College Football predictions: Alabama Crimson Tide odds, future pick

Alabama is the standard for excellence in college football.

Nick Saban is the greatest coach in college football history. 

But the Crimson Tide is trending down.

There are question marks across the coaching staff and roster.

The schedule is only getting tougher with improvements to other SEC West teams.

Georgia has established itself as the new powerhouse in college football. 

If you’re into sports betting, now is the time to sell Alabama. 

It’s terrifying to fade Saban, but I’m doing it and taking a position on Alabama’s win total under.

As it does every year, Alabama has reloaded. The Crimson Tide has the nation’s top recruiting class behind 27 four- and five-star recruits.

Still, there are too many question marks in Tuscaloosa.

Recruiting is important, but so is returning production, and the Tide have none of that. 

The Tide lost 11 starters – six on offense and six on defense – including former Heisman-winning quarterback Bryce Young and two-time Nagurski winner Will Anderson.

Only 50% of offensive line snaps return and only 37% of tackles. 

By ESPN’s SP+ numbers, the Tide rank ninth-to-last in overall returning production, including seventh-to-last on the defensive side of the ball. 

Even when you combine a great recruiting class with such little returning production, you still get almost zero experience. By Phil Steele’s numbers, the Tide is last in the SEC in overall experience and seventh-to-last nationally. 

And it’s not like the Tide has superstars ready to roll. 

Alabama’s quarterback room is filled with three “meh” prospects, Taylor Buchner (Notre Dame transfer), Jalen Milroe and Ty Simpson. 

There are only 41 career FBS starts on the offensive line. 

Alabama is inexperienced in the front seven and thin in the secondary (outside of stud cornerback Kool-Aid McKinstry).

And the Tide is planning on piecing it all together behind two mediocre coordinator hires. Saban hired Notre Dame’s offensive coordinator for that side of the ball and Miami’s defensive coordinator Kevin Steele for the other. 

Notre Dame’s offense was not a juggernaut underneath Rees. Meanwhile, Steele is back for his third stint in Tuscaloosa, raising questions about Saban’s schematic intentions.

Look, this is Alabama. The last time the Tide was in a “rebuilding” year, it almost won the National Championship. 

Naturally, the Tide will be favored in every game, and its win total is 10.5 (albeit juiced to the under).  

However, six of Alabama’s 12 contests have a projected spread under a touchdown – otherwise known as a coin flip. It still has to face Texas (non-conference), LSU and Tennessee, alongside Texas A&M and Auburn on the road.

Betting on College Football?

The Action Network’s Analytics team projects Alabama for 9.1 wins this season, 

Given the state of this roster and coaching staff, I agree with our projections and I’m betting the Under 10.5 Wins (-145) available at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

Saban may make me eat my words, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take. 

The play: Alabama Under 10.5 Wins (-186, FanDuel)