2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
The regular season has wrapped up for 2022-23, but that just means the FedExCup Playoffs are about to get underway. The 1st leg of the playoffs begins this week at the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship in Memphis, which is once again hosted by TPC Southwind.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 FedEx St. Jude Championship odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler is back in the field after taking the last 2 weeks off and he’s unsurprisingly ranked as the top player in the latest Golfweek/Sagarin rankings. Jon Rahm is No. 2, followed by Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy and Rickie Fowler.
TPC Southwind is a par 70 and plays at 7,243 yards, featuring firm Bermuda greens and penalizing rough. There are only 2 par-5s on the scorecard, so birdie opportunities aren’t as abundant as some other courses. Will Zalatoris won with a score of 15-under par last year, beating Sepp Straka in a playoff. Zalatoris won’t be defending his title as he’s missed most of the season with an injury.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-5 picks
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:40 p.m. ET.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+500)
Fitzpatrick is 2 for 4 in top-5s at this event since 2019, finishing 4th, 6th, 57th and 5th in his last 4 appearances. That’s a stellar track record and worth betting on this week, similar to the way Webb Simpson owns Sedgefield and the Wyndham Championship no matter his current form. Fitzpatrick’s driver has been off lately but if he straightens it out, he’ll be in contention.
Collin Morikawa (+375)
One of the most important factors in finding success at TPC Southwind is keeping the ball out of the Bermuda rough. Morikawa may not be long, but he’s an accurate ball striker. With only 2 par-5s on the course, he won’t be at a significant disadvantage length-wise. He finished 5th here last year.
J.T. Poston (+700)
Poston has finished 2nd and 7th in his last 2 starts, which came after also notching back-to-back 6th-place finishes at the John Deere Classic and Scottish Open. He’s finished 18th, 30th and 20th here in his last 3 tries but he’s a worthwhile long shot for a top-5.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-10 picks
Jordan Spieth (+225)
Spieth’s putter has been ice cold this season, ranking 82nd in strokes gained: putting. He’s still hitting it pretty well, ranking 28th in SG: tee-to-green, but his putter has to get going. If it does, he could find himself in contention; he has two 12th-place finishes in his last 4 trips here.
Brian Harman (+275)
Harman’s only finish outside the top 10 in his last 4 starts was a T-12 at the Scottish Open. Otherwise, he’s finished 2nd, 9th and won the Open. His odds for a top-10 should probably be shorter than this, but we’ll take the good price on him to keep things rolling.
Stephan Jaeger (+400)
Jaeger has finished between 9th and 34th in his last 5 starts this season, striking the ball exceptionally well in that span. His 46th-place finish here last year is nothing to write home about, but he’s in excellent form for a top-10.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top-20 picks
Harris English (+200)
English has 2 top-10s in his last 3 starts at this tournament, including a T-4 in 2021. He played relatively well at the Wyndham Championship, tying for 33rd, but this seems to be a course where he plays well.
Tommy Fleetwood (-110)
When Fleetwood has made the cut recently, he’s finished near the top of the leaderboard. In his last 7 starts when he’s made the cut, he’s finished no worse than T-18 and has 4 top-10s in that span. He finished 4th here in 2019, as well.
Rickie Fowler (-110)
Fowler has been a top-20 machine this season, finishing in the top 20 a whopping 14 times. He came in 15th here in 2020 and is playing some of the best golf of his career right now.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Andrew Putnam (+220)
- Byeong Hun An (+138)
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Jon Rahm (-145) vs. Patrick Cantlay (+115)
It might seem like a steep price to pay for Rahm over Cantlay, but this is setting up to be a great week for the Spaniard. He’s finished 5th and 7th in 2 of his last 3 starts here and finished 2nd in his last tournament, the Open Championship.
Sepp Straka (+120) vs. Jason Day (-150)
Straka nearly won this event last year, losing to Zalatoris in a playoff. Day played well at the Open last month, but a line of -150 over Straka feels expensive. I’ll take the value with Straka, who has a win and a 2nd-place finish in his last 3 starts.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top Continental European
Jon Rahm (+110)
Going back to Rahm with this bet against the likes of Viktor Hovland, Straka, Jaeger and others. Rahm has longer odds here than he does for a top-10, so I like the value at +110.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – Top English
Matt Fitzpatrick (+300)
We’ve already discussed Fitzpatrick’s course history, which is the primary reason I like him at all this week. Tyrrell Hatton and Fleetwood have shorter odds than Fitzpatrick, but they should be about even to be the top Englishman.
FedEx St. Jude Championship – First-round leader
Sepp Straka (+4500)
Straka was 2 shots off the lead after Round 1 last year when he shot 64 on Thursday, followed by rounds of 66, 68 and 67. He’s a player who can run hot and cold, so he’s a good FRL bet.
Tony Finau (+3300)
Finau also shot 64 in the 1st round last year, which was tied for 3rd after Round 1. He hasn’t been in great form lately but this could be the week he gets back on track with the playoffs starting.
Group A winner: Jon Rahm (+320)
This group has the big guns: Scheffler (+210), McIlroy (+320), Cantlay (+550) and Schauffele (+550). Yet, it’s Rahm who I like the best, particularly at a number of +320.
USA vs. Rest of field: The field (+115)
There’s a strong rest-of-world contingent in this field, led by Rahm and Hovland. Fleetwood and Fitzpatrick are also strong contenders, as is Hatton. At plus money, it’s worth a bet.
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