Vincenzi’s FedEx St. Jude Championship betting preview: Tommy ready to deliver the goods
With the PGA TOUR regular season in the books, it’s time to begin the 2023 FedEx Cup playoffs.
Previously known as the St. Jude Classic and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational, the event will serve as the first leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs for the second consecutive season.
TPC Southwind is located in Memphis, Tennessee and has been a regular TOUR stop since 1989.
TPC Southwind is a par 70 measuring 7,244 yards. The course features Bermudagrass greens and rough. With 94 bunkers and 10 water hazards, there is potential trouble on almost every hole.
The FedEx St. Jude Championship will play host to the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup standings and will be a no-cut event.
Past Winners at TPC Southwind
The FedEx St. Jude Championship
- Will Zalatoris (-15)
FedEx St. Jude Invitational
- 2021: Abraham Ancer (-16)
- 2020: Justin Thomas (-13)
- 2019: Brooks Koepka (-16)
St. Jude Classic
- 2018: Dustin Johnson (-19)
- 2017 Daniel Berger (-10)
- 2016: Daniel Berger (-13)
- 2015: Fabian Gomez (-15)
5 Key Stats For TPC Southwind
Let’s take a look at five key metrics for TPC Southwind to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes Gained: Approach
TPC Southwind is a relatively short course, and it isn’t necessary to be a long hitter off the tee to compete. In 2020, we saw Justin Thomas win here by gaining 7.7 strokes on approach as opposed to just 2.3 off of the tee. In 2021, Abraham Ancer gained 4.4 strokes on approach and just 1.4 off the tee. In 2022, Will Zalatoris gained 7.7 strokes on approach and just 1.8 Off the Tee. Golfers with all types of skill sets can win at the course, but there is no doubt that Strokes Gained: Approach is the most predictive statistic this week.
SG: App Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+40.0)
- Russell Henley (+27.6)
- Adam Schenk (+25.9)
- Alex Smalley (+25.2)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+25.1)
2. Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking does factor in approach, but it also includes golfers who are keeping the ball in play in addition to solid approach play. While distance off the tee isn’t the most important factor this week, golfers will get into some serious trouble if they spray the ball off the tee.
Strokes Gained: Ball Striking Over Past 24 Rounds
- Scottie Scheffler (+67.5)
- Rory McIlroy (+37.5)
- Collin Morikawa (+37.4)
- Xander Schauffele (+36.8)
- Patrick Cantlay (+36.6)
3. Greens in Regulation: Gained
Green in Regulation percentage at TPC Southwind is 59.2% compared to the TOUR average of 65.8%. Golfers who are in control of the golf ball have had a lot of success at the course historically. The scoring should be relatively difficult this week, therefore fairways and greens will be the recipe to success.
GIR Gained Past 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+43.9)
- Rory McIlroy (+38.7)
- Collin Morikawa (+37.5)
- Jon Rahm (+35.1)
- Alex Smalley (+28.7)
4. Par 4: 450-500
The most common par-4 distance on the course will be from 450-500. There are six holes of this length at TPC Southwind, which is at least double the amount of any other distance range.
Par 4: 450-500 Over Past 24 Rounds
- Xander Schauffele (+25.0)
- Rory McIlroy (+24.9)
- Sam Stevens (+17.6)
- Viktor Hovland (+16.2)
- Keith Mitchell (+16.1)
5. Bogey Avoidance
TPC Southwind features six holes with bogey percentages above 17.5%. Holes 5, 7, 12, 14, 17, and 18 are all very difficult and will give the field some trouble. With par being a good score on these particular holes, it will be important to target golfers who tend to avoid blemishes on the scorecard.
Bogey Avoidance Over Past 24 Rounds:
- Tommy Fleetwood (+28.7)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+25.8)
- Rory McIlroy (+23.9)
- Patrick Cantlay (+21.9)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+21.7)
FedEx St. Jude Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (26%), SG: Ball Striking (23%%), GIR Gained (18.4%), Bogey Avoidance (18.4%), and Par 4: 450-500 (14%).
- Scottie Scheffler (+2200)
- Rory McIlroy (+900)
- Hideki Matsuyama (+1400)
- Xander Schauffele (+3500)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1400)
- Jon Rahm (+3500)
- Wyndham Clark (+1400)
- Tommy Fleetwood (+10000)
- Rickie Fowler (+15000)
- Tyrrell Hatton (+1400)
FedEx St. Jude Championship Outright Bets
Tommy Fleetwood (+3300,BetRivers)
Tommy Fleetwood is having arguably his best ever season on the PGA Tour but still remains winless in the United States. On the year, the Englishman has six top-ten finishes and four top-five finishes. His play has been even better recently, and he’s only finished outside of the top-ten once in his past five starts.
Throughout his career, Tommy has played well at TPC Southwind when he arrives to the course in good form. He finished 4th in 2019 after a 13th at the Travelers Championship and 2nd at the Open Championship. In 2018, he finished 14th at TPC Southwind after finishes of 7th, 2nd, 12th and 6th in the four starts leading up to the event. When Fleetwood has been mediocre at this course, it’s consistently been when the lead-in form was mediocre as well.
In his past 24 rounds, Fleetwood ranks 10th in the field in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 1st in the field in Bogeys Avoided. In an event that may play relatively difficult, his ability to avoid mistakes should serve him well.
A FedEx Cup playoff victory would be a worthy exclamation point to what’s been a fantastic year for the 32-year-old.
Sam Burns (+4000,BetMGM)
Sam Burns was agonizingly close to winning at TPC Southwind but fell short in a playoff with Abraham Ancer and Hideki Matsuyama back in 2021. Last year, Burns played well at the course yet again, finishing 20th.
The American is rounding into form at just the right time. He’d love to be a captain’s pick for the Ryder Cup team and his recent play may make him a contender for one of the final spots. He finished 13th last week at the Wyndham Championship and gained 4.6 strokes on approach and 4.1 strokes putting. Burns is a terrific putter on Bermudagrass and has rolled it really well at TPC Southwind in the past.
I believe a FedEx Cup playoff win would be enough to get Burns a spot on the flight to Rome in a few months, and is a great course fit for TPC Southwind.
Hideki Matsuyama (+4000,FanDuel)
Hideki Matsuyama has been about as easy to figure out this year as “Ice Puzzle 9” but I still believe he is playing better than his recent finishes may indicate. Last week, he missed the cut at the Wyndham Championship but still gained strokes on approach and off the tee. He lost 5.8 strokes around the green due to a few plugged balls in the bunker including one that fell back into his own footprint. Matsuyama is typically fantastic around the greens, so I don’t believe the poor performance will follow him to Memphis.
Despite the relative struggles, in his past 24 rounds, Matsuyama ranks 5th in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach, 13th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 5th in Greens in Regulation Gained.
Hideki was also in the 2021 playoff at TPC Southwind with Burns and Ancer, falling just short of a victory. His elite iron play should allow him to contend once again at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Harris English (+11000,FanDuel)
Last week, Harris English showed some life at the Wyndham Championship. After a slow start, he rallied to make the cut on Friday and played even better over the weekend, finishing in 33rd.
Most importantly, English hit the ball great after not having played for a few weeks since the Open Championship. The 34-year-old gained 5.8 strokes on approach, which was his most in the category since the Wells Fargo in May, where he finished 3rd. English somehow lost 3.0 strokes around the green, which impacted his overall score, but was surely an aberration considering he has gained strokes around the green consistently throughout his career.
English boasts some impressive course history at TPC Southwind. He finished 4th in 2021 and 10th in 2017 in addition to his win at the course back in 2013.
If he can build off of his excellent iron play from last week, English could contend this week in Memphis.
