2023 Genesis Scottish Open prop bet picks and PGA Tour predictions
The PGA Tour and DP World Tour are coming together this week for the co-sanctioned 2023 Genesis Scottish Open at The Renaissance Club in Scotland. The 1st round will begin on Thursday morning, 1 week before The 151st Open Championship gets underway at Royal Liverpool.
Below, we search for the best value prop bets among the 2023 Genesis Scottish Open odds and make our PGA Tour picks and predictions.
Scottie Scheffler is once again the favorite this week (+700), slightly ahead of Rory McIlroy (+750). Xander Schauffele will try to make it back-to-back wins in this event, entering as the 3rd-favorite at +1400 – tied with his friend, Patrick Cantlay. Jon Rahm is one of the few notables taking the week off before the Open.
The Renaissance Club is a par 70 and will play at 7,237 yards this week. It only opened in 2007 and this is the 5th time it’s hosting the Scottish Open. The course was carved through a forested area, so there are more trees than a traditional links-style course. Weather can play a major factor in the scoring throughout the week, as Schauffele won with a score of 7-under last year compared to 18-under from Min Woo Lee in 2021.
Genesis Scottish Open – Top-5 picks
BetMGM Sportsbook; access USA TODAY Sports Scores and Sports Betting Odds hub for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 12:45 p.m. ET.
Matt Fitzpatrick (+400)
Fitzpatrick finished 6th and 2nd in his last 2 starts at the Genesis Scottish Open after also posting a T-14 in 2019. This is a tournament Fitzpatrick is suited to win and he has a great chance to get it done against some of the best players in the world.
Tyrrell Hatton (+350)
Hatton has more top 5s (3) than he has finishes outside the top 25 (2) in his last 8 starts, playing some phenomenal golf at the moment. He’s finished 14th, 18th and 24th in his last 3 starts at the Scottish Open, so The Renaissance Club seems to suit him.
Genesis Scottish Open – Top-10 picks
Rory McIlroy (-120)
I have a good feeling about McIlroy at the Open Championship this year, which also gives me confidence in him at the Scottish Open. Though he’s only finished 34th and missed the cut in his 2 starts here since 2019, McIlroy is excellent on links courses. He hasn’t finished worse than 9th in his last 5 starts on tour.
Tommy Fleetwood (+200)
It’s Tommy Time. I love his chances this week, having finished 2nd and 4th in this event since 2020. Fleetwood also has 3 top-5s in his last 6 starts on tour, entering with some serious momentum.
Min Woo Lee (+350)
Lee won here in 2021, though he missed the cut last year in some atrocious weather. He’s finished 5th, 9th and 15th in his last 3 starts this season, which is why his odds are shorter than usual.
Other T10 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Shane Lowry (+275)
- Xander Schauffele (+130)
Genesis Scottish Open – Top-20 picks
Robert MacIntyre (+320)
MacIntyre doesn’t play many PGA Tour events but he’s been filling it up on the DP World Tour with 3 top-20s in his last 5 starts, including a T-4 in his last start. Getting him at +320 is a good value considering he’s had 2 top-20s in his last 3 starts here.
Aaron Rai (+250)
Rai won the Scottish Open in 2020 and finished 35th in 2021, 2 solid showings at The Renaissance Club. He’s gone T-3, T-24 and T-9 in his last 3 starts on the PGA Tour this year, so his recent form is very good.
Other T20 contenders (in order from longest odds to shortest):
- Thomas Detry (+333)
- Ludvig Aberg (+225)
Genesis Scottish Open – Matchups
Suggested play is golfer in bold.
Matt Fitzpatrick (-110) vs. Jordan Spieth (-110)
Spieth has been a mixed bag in his last 5 starts this season, missing the cut twice, but finishing T-5 at the Memorial Tournament. Fitzpatrick, meanwhile, has 3 top-20s in his last 4 starts this season and has posted back-to-back top-6s in the Scottish Open.
Rory McIlroy (+110) vs. Scottie Scheffler (-140)
Scheffler is the only player who would be favored over McIlroy right now, which is why Rory is a good value at +110. Even with Scheffler finishing no worse than 4th in his last 5 starts, McIlroy has quietly finished 7th or better in each of his last 5, too. And links golf fits Rory better than Scottie based on their past records.
Genesis Scottish Open – Top Korean
Tom Kim (+200)
This pick is partly a way to fade Im, who has never really played well on links courses. He missed the cut here last year and in 2 starts in the Open Championship, he’s finished 81st and missed the cut. Give me Kim over Im, Byeong Hun An and others with this bet.
Genesis Scottish Open – Top Australian
Min Woo Lee (+210)
Adam Scott (+250) and Lucas Herbert (+300) are the top competitors against Lee in this bet, but Lee is a past champion here and a budding star.
Genesis Scottish Open – First-round leader
Tyrrell Hatton (+3000)
Hatton fired a 1st-round 68 in this event last year, getting off to a good start en route to a T-24 finish. He can be an up-and-down player but right now, few people are playing better than he is.
Aaron Rai (+6000)
Rai ranks 30th on tour in 1st-round scoring average this season and has won this event in the past, so it’s not as if he’ll be seeing the course for the 1st time.
Genesis Scottish Open – To make the cut
Suggested play in bold.
Sungjae Im: NO (+150) vs. Yes (-190)
Again, I’m fading Im for the reasons listed above. His game is simply not suited for links golf and his track record shows that.
Group B winner: Matt Fitzpatrick (+375)
In this group, Fitzpatrick is up against Viktor Hovland (+250), Spieth (+350), Lowry (+400) and Wyndham Clark (+450). Fitzpatrick has by far the best record in this event and for that reason, his odds should be much shorter.
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