2023 Hero World Challenge odds, expert picks, sleepers: Tiger Woods returns, but Scottie Scheffler favored

This is a particularly tough time of year for the golf world to capture the attention of the average sports fan. The NFL playoff race is heating up as the calendar moves toward December while four undefeated college football teams are vying for the top seed. The NBA and NHL are in full swing with the added bonus of an NBA in-season tournament that may even have a few fans outside of Adam Silver. But there is only one name in golf that could tear me away from all of that: Tiger Woods.

Woods teased the golf world with glimpses of his health while caddying for his son, Charlie, earlier this year. He seemed to be walking pain-free carrying the bag. Now, he will tee it up at the Hero World Challenge for the first time since withdrawing from the Masters after the third round in April.

Tiger will be joined by two-time defending Hero World Challenge champion Viktor Hovland and world No. 1 Scottie Scheffler, who finished second the last two years and will be eager to finally beat Hovland in the Bahamas as long as his putter cooperates. Tiger won’t be the only player returning from a long layoff this week, as Will Zalatoris will tee it up for the first time since his back surgery.

The Hero World Challenge is a fun watch with so many great golfers teeing it up, but it isn’t the best tournament to bet on or invest heavily in DFS lineups. The small purse and vacation-like atmosphere can lead some players to treat it like a preseason game while others can’t help themselves from competing for wins. Watch this clip of Scheffler playing pickleball to see how competitive that guy is. I’m not worried about Scheffler showing up each and every day, but I do have some questions about others.

Betting Slip

Scottie Scheffler +450 is the pick if you take one outright winner this week. He’s as stubborn as a mule when competing, and he’s the best ball striker on the planet. I would not go heavy on anyone this week, but Scheffler would get most of my attention if I only looked at outrights.

Justin Thomas +1600 struggled through the 2022-2023 PGA Tour season. His putting was atrocious, and his driver and approach game wasn’t close to his usual self. Over his last three tournaments, he has gained more than 3.1 strokes on the greens each week. He finished fourth last week at the Nedbank Golf Challenge gaining more than 11.5 strokes with his short game. Strokes gained around the green will be a key stat this week, especially with five Par 5s and 5 Par 3s on the scorecard. The Par 3s are all over 180 yards and play fairly difficult.

Tony Finau +2200 is the closest player to Scheffler regarding hemorrhaging strokes with his putter. Even with how bad his putting was for most of the season, he still has won a golf tournament more recently than the world No. 1. Finau is very friendly with Tiger and has had good showings here that include a second-place finish and back-to-back seventh-place finishes the last two years.

DFS Plays

Scottie Scheffler $10,700 See above.

Max Homa $10,100 would be the ideal game theory play if he didn’t win in dominant fashion at the Nedbank Golf Challenge. I thought he would be in the low 9K range to the high 8K range, but here he is among the highest priced players because of that win.

Collin Morikawa $10,000 is another player coming here from a win his last time out, as he won the ZOZO Championship at the end of October. He was going to win here in 2021 but struggled on the final day as the wind picked up. This week’s forecast looks good, with winds expected in the normal 15 mph range.

Justin Thomas $8,400 See above.

Tony Finau$7,600 See above.

Wyndham Clark $7,300 tees it up at the Hero World Challenge for the first time this week. His short game should give him an advantage if he can bounce back after struggling with his irons at the Andalucia Masters in October.

Sam Burns $7,100 is underpriced based on his short history here.

Will Zalatoris $6,600 will be teeing it up for the first time since the end of March, but I think that allows us to buy low on him this week. If he is healthy, he will easily return the value at this price.

Are you excited for the return of Tiger Woods or does it even move the needle at this point?