2023 Melbourne Cup tips: predictions, best bets and odds

Melbourne Cup tips: 

The Melbourne Cup is a cultural institution in Australia and one of the richest horse races in the world in prize money. 

This year’s race will be of particular interest to British and Irish racing followers and it may be worth the early start to see if one of Ireland’s top trainers can saddle the winner.

2023 Melbourne Cup information

• When: Tuesday, 7th November 2023, 04.00 GMT
• Where: Flemington Racecourse, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia
• Distance: 3,200 metres (Approx. two miles)
• Total prize money: AUD 14 million (Approx. £7.3 million)

Willie Mullins, one of the leading trainers in Ireland, has said that he feels that he may never have a better chance of winning the great race than he does with his Royal Ascot champion, Vauban. 

Bookmakers agree with Mullins, and Vauban is an across-the-board favourite to win the race on Tuesday.

Mullins has gone close before in the Melbourne Cup, described as ‘The Race That Stops a Nation’, with his runner Max Dynamite narrowly beaten in 2015 and third in 2017.

Mullins declared himself “happy” after the 2022 Triumph Hurdle hero, Vauban, drew stall three in Saturday’s draw. 

“We just need to break well and get in a position,” the 90-time Cheltenham-winning legend added.

Vauban to justify favouristim

Vauban, who was campaigned in top-class hurdles races earlier in the year, has looked better than ever since being switched to the flat in the summer.

He was given an enterprising ride in the valuable mile and six furlongs Copper Horse Handicap at Ascot, up with the pace from the start before leading after a couple of furlongs. 

He had to be kept up to his work, but when jockey Ryan Moore pressed the button a couple of furlongs from the finish, the response was instant.

He pulled away from his rivals in impressive fashion and had over seven lengths to spare over stablemate Absurde, who also takes his chance in the Melbourne Cup. That form was boosted when Absurde went on to win The Ebor at York at the end of August.

Similar tactics were employed in Vauban’s next race early in August at Naas over a mile and a half when he kept on well to win with something in hand. Since then, the target has always been the Melbourne Cup.

Flown to Australia at the beginning of October for quarantine and time to acclimatise, Vauban has settled in superbly and thrives in the sunshine. He has been eating well and even took a feisty bite out of assistant trainer David Casey last week.

Casey explained that Vauban can be something of a handful in the stable and does not like being brushed but that he is very laid back once on the track.

Looking an absolute picture, he had his first gallop on the turf at Flemington last Tuesday, which could not have been more pleasing as he effortlessly eased away from Absurde. 

His Melbourne Cup preparation could not have gone better, and with Moore, who won in 2014 aboard the German horse Protectionist, in the saddle, we expect him to give Mullins his first success in the Melbourne Cup.

Absurde could make it a day to remember for Mullins

While everything points to a win for Vauban, there is also an excellent case for stablemate Absurde, who has crack Hong Kong-based jockey Zac Purton on board.

The Australian, who describes trainer Mullins as a ‘training genius’, rode Mullins’ Max Dynamite to third in the race in 2017.

Absurde has only been out of the placings in three of his 15 starts and could not have come into this race in finer fettle after his battling win in The Ebor at York in August. 

New betting sites have priced the race up, and the each-way terms - paying a quarter the odds for the first four places - make Absurde an exciting each-way proposition.

He has plenty to find on Vauban on Royal Ascot form but is a dour stayer who will get every metre of the trip and, if the track is running on the fast side, is bound to go close if the gaps open for him in the straight.

He, too, has settled in particularly well and is better in at the weights than he was at Ascot.

Last year’s winner, the classy Gold Trip (5/1) and Caulfield Cup winner Without A Fight (7/1) will be tough to keep out of the frame, but Absurde is expected to be in there pitching where it matters, and the 14/1 on offer represents value in this highly competitive race.

Paul has been professionally involved with sports betting since joining the Racing Post in 1986. Although greyhound racing was his first passion, he has also written multiple articles on a wide range of sports from a betting perspective.