2023 MLB All-Star Game predictions: Picks, odds for American League vs. National League
The 93rd MLB All-Star Game will take place Tuesday,with first pitch set for 8 p.m. ET. The game takes place at T-Mobile Park in Seattle, Washington, and will be available to watch exclusively on FOX. There will be two first-time starters on the mound, as New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the American League while the National League counters with Arizona Diamondbacks righty Zac Gallen.
The AL enters Tuesday night as -120 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with the NL the slight +100 underdogs. The run total is set at 7.5.
American League vs. National League
The AL comes into this one having won nine consecutive Midsummer Classics — in fact, they’ve only lost three times in the 21st century. If they’re going to make it 10 in a row on Tuesday night, they’re going to need big performances from several Texas Rangers and Tampa Bay Rays stars. Those two teams are responsible for seven of nine starting spots, with Shohei Ohtani (DHing to start, but expected to pitch an inning as well) and Baltimore Orioles outfielder Austin Hays the only outliers.
There’s also plenty of firepower on the bench here, from Luis Robert Jr. to Blue Jays stars Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., although injuries to Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez and Mike Trout have thinned things out a bit. The pitching is obviously solid — this is an All-Star Game, after all — but a bit unspectacular, thanks in part to Shane McClanahan, Framber Valdez and Kevin Gausman not participating. Manager Dusty Baker may have to turn to guys like Sonny Gray, Nathan Eovaldi, George Kirby and Pablo Lopez earlier than he’d like — all very good pitchers, but also not without warts.
For the first time in what feels like forever, it’s the NL who will enter the All-Star Game with the talent advantage. Ronald Acuna Jr.-Mookie Betts-Freddie Freeman is an absolutely dynamite top three of the batting order, but the Senior Circuit is loaded offensively from top to bottom — potential .400 hitter Luis Arraez and NL MVP candidate Corbin Carroll are hitting sixth and eighth, respectively. And there’s more on the bench, too, including guys like Matt Olson, Pete Alonso, Ozzie Albies, Will Smith and Juan Soto who would be no-doubt starters in a less stacked year.
The pitching staff took a hit with Clayton Kershaw’s injury and Marcus Stroman opting not to play, but Kodai Senga and Corbin Burnes are pretty good replacement options, while Spencer Strider looms as a potential difference-maker in the middle innings. The bullpen is electric as well: You could make the argument that Alexis Diaz, Josh Hader and Camilo Doval are four of the five best relievers on either team.
Starting pitchers
Cole has been the rock in an Yankees rotation that’s dealt with near-constant injury and flux, posting 13 quality starts in 19 outings in the first half. Still, he hasn’t been quite as dominant as we’re used to seeing: The righty’s K rate, walk rate and line-drive rate are the worst since his Pirates days, and his expected ERA is over a full run higher than his actual mark at 3.84. He’s still among the game’s most reliable workhorses and eminently deserving of starting this game, but he’s doing it a different way now, with less fastball velocity and fewer whiffs on just about all of his pitches. He’s allowed five earned runs three different times this year, so he’s capable of giving up loud contact.
MLB’s wins leader with 11, and with the best FIP (2.77) and WHIP (1.048) in the National League, Gallen was a worthy choice amid a crowded field of NL contenders. In a year full of unpredictability, the D-backs righty has been just about the most predictable pitcher in the sport, sitting either first, or tied for first, in the NL in the following: most starts of seven-plus innings and one run or fewer (five), two runs or fewer (six), 10 strikeouts or more (three) and one walk or none (six). He’s gone at least seven innings in four of his last five starts, and his fastballs up/curveballs down combo is darn near unhittable when he’s on.
Odds, picks & predictions
Run line: AL +1.5 (-200), NL -1.5 (+170)
Run total: 7.5
Moneyline odds: American League -120, National League +100
Over/Under pick
We’ve seen the total come under this number in 11 of the last 16 All-Star Games, and it’s not hard to see why: With the game’s best arms each getting to max out their stuff while throwing only an inning or two, runs have been hard to come by. Still, I’m backing the over on Tuesday night, if only slightly. The reason why? The National League’s collection of offensive talent is among the most impressive we’ve seen in any Midsummer Classic in recent memory, and a number this low leaves little margin for error; it’s hard to see a lineup this stacked top-to-bottom not getting to at least five runs, which already gets us most of the way.
Pick:
Moneyline pick
I’ve already tipped my hand a bit here, but it’s hard not to look at these rosters and wonder why the NL isn’t the favorite in this game. Yes, the losing streak is what it is, but the National League’s second wave of position players reads more or less like an All-Star starting lineup — and they’re deeper in the bullpen and the rotation, too. Maybe the AL Voodoo is real, but I’m betting on the NL’s bats to wear things down in the middle innings while their ridiculous array of relievers makes the lead hold up late.
