Diamondbacks vs. Brewers prediction: Pick, odds for Game 2 of Wild Card series in 2023 MLB playoffs

The Milwaukee Brewers failed to capitalize on just about all of their many opportunities while the underdog Arizona Diamondbacks cashed in every single one of theirs en route to stealing Game 1 of this best-of-three Wild Card series on Tuesday night. Now the D-backs are one win away from an improbable Division Series berth, and they have their Cy Young candidate, Zac Gallen (17-9, 3.47 ERA), getting the ball. Milwaukee, meanwhile, will turn to Freddy Peralta (12-10, 3.86) to save its season. First pitch of Game 2 from American Family Field is set for 7:08 p.m. ET on Wednesday night.

The Brewers enter as -130 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Arizona at +110. The run total is set at 7.5.

Diamondbacks vs. Brewers Wild Card Game 2 picks: Wednesday, October 4

Injury report

Diamondbacks

Out: RP Scott McGough (shoulder)

Brewers

Out: SP Brandon Woodruff (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Zac Gallen vs. Freddy Peralta

The D-backs survived Game 1 without their ace, and now they have one of the game’s most reliable starters on the mound looking to punch their ticket to the Division Series for the first time since 2017. Gallen was probably leading the NL Cy Young race at the All-Star break (first-half ERA: 3.04) thanks to a sensational start, and while he’s cooled off a bit since then, he’s still as sturdy as they come. The righty tied for fifth in baseball with 20 quality starts this season, including 18 of at least six innings and two or fewer earned runs. He tied have some bumpy outings down the stretch — five runs allowed in 5.1 innings against the Orioles, seven in five innings against the Mets — but he was great when the D-backs needed him over the final two weeks, delivering six shutout frames in a win over the Yankees and 6.1 innings of two-run ball in a hard-luck loss to the Astros last weekend. He’s been brilliant in each of his two starts against the Brewers this year, holding Milwaukee to one run on six hits over a combined 14 innings of work.

If there were a second-half Cy Young Award, Peralta might’ve won it in the NL: The hard-throwing righty posted a 2.81 ERA after the All-Star break, with a whopping 103 strikeouts in 73.2 innings. He allowed one or fewer runs in a ridiculous eight of his 13 starts over that span, five of which featured at least nine strikeouts. Put simply, when Peralta’s throwing strikes, he’s one of the most unhittable pitchers in baseball with elite strikeout and whiff rates (both 92nd percentile) and a slider that ranks among the nastiest in the game (.204 BA against, 45.8% whiff rate). Of course, the “when he throws strikes” part of the equation is hardly a given, but the 27-year-old walked just one batter in 26.2 September innings. He’s yet to face Arizona this season.

Over/Under pick

Yesterday’s game needed two Arizona runs in the top of the ninth to push across this total, and that was with the D-backs getting exactly 2.2 innings from their starting pitcher. They should get much more than that from Gallen tonight, and if Peralta is on the way he has been recently, this under should cash easily — these are two mediocre lineups against righty pitching.

Pick: Under 7.5

Moneyline pick

I’m hesitant to back Arizona here — Milwaukee was the better team this season, after all, and Peralta is nasty — but I’m going with my gut on this one after the Brewers took such a demoralizing loss in Game 1 last night. Now they have to go up against Gallen, a pitcher who’s dominated them twice already this season, and while Peralta has been great, he also comes with a bit more volatility than you’d like. Corbin Carroll is the best player on the field for either team, and I think that’ll make the difference once again as the D-backs move on.