2023 MLB Playoff Chances: Postseason Odds & Projections For Every Team
The 2023 MLB playoffs will begin on Tuesday, October 3. With the 2023 season being one of the most dynamic, exciting and unprecedented in recent times, the stage is set for a postseason like no other.
For the second straight season, twelve teams will compete in the 2023 MLB playoffs. Owing to an extra Wild Card berth in each league, the number of teams in the 2023 MLB playoffs will see an increase from ten in the 2021 season.
Additionally, this postseason will see the first playoff games that include a pitch clock, among the MLB's other new rules. So, let's look at who has the best chances heading into the 2023 MLB playoffs.
While the final bracket has not yet been finalized, we already have a pretty good idea of which teams will take to the field.
With a record of 102-56, the Atlanta Braves have the best record in baseball. Moreover, the Braves lead MLB in almost every single vital hitting statistic, including runs, hits, home runs, RBIs and batting average.
Led by MVP-presumptive Ronald Acuna Jr., whose 70th stolen base on Wednesday gained him entry to the exclusive 40/70 club, the Braves are a team to watch in the 2023 MLB playoffs.
"40 HOME RUNS. 70 STOLEN BASES. Ronald Acuña Jr. becomes the first player ever to reach this milestone in a season (via @MLB)" - ESPN
Additionally, the other divisional leaders are the Dodgers and the Milwaukee Brewers. On the backs of yet another terrific performance from Freddie Freeman and Mookie Betts, 2023 represents the tenth straight season that the Dodgers have emerged as victors in the NL West.
When it comes to the NL Wild Card race, things are less clear. The Philadelphia Phillies, who lost in last year's World Series, have clinched the top Wild Card spot. Meanwhile, the D-Backs, Cubs and Marlins are in a dead heat for the last two places.
In the American League, things are no less exciting. Despite winning just 52 games in 2021, the Baltimore Orioles are leading the charge. Led by stars like Adley Rutschman, and Rookie of the Year contender Gunnar Henderson, the O's are 99-59. Meanwhile, the Minnesota Twins will be back in the postseason, having clinched the AL Central.
"Tonight the Baltimore Orioles go for win 100 and would clinch the American League East Division Title… If you have plans where you can’t be at The Yard… you no longer have those plans." - Zach Bollinger
In the Wild Card, things are even more dicey than in the NL. While the Texas Rangers hold on to the AL West, both the Astros and Mariners are in the rearview mirror. The Blue Jays also look likely to have home a Wild Card berth, owing to the fact that the New York Yankees will miss the playoffs for the first time since 2016.
Teams chances in the 2023 MLB playoffs
While every baseball fan knows that anything can happen in our game, the projections can tell us a substantial amount about what to expect.
While the Braves lead the way, The Milwaukee Brewers and Toronto Blue Jays have some of the best pitching in MLB. Starters like Kevin Gausman and Chris Bassitt have had excellent seasons for the Jays. Pitchers like Pablo Lopez for the Brewers add to their team's chances.
"The Braves have won a game vs every team but one since 2021. The Toronto Blue Jays (0-9 since then)." - StatMuse MLB
Playoff odds for every team
Below are the odds for each team to win the World Series, as per FanGraphs:
- Atlanta Braves - 21.2%
- Los Angeles Dodgers - 16.5%
- Texas Rangers - 10.6%
- Houston Astros - 9.8%
- Philadelphia Phillies - 7.6%
- Baltimore Orioles - 6.8%
- Tampa Bay Rays - 6.2%
- Toronto Blue Jays - 6.1%
- Milwaukee Brewers - 5.2%
- Arizona Diamondbacks - 2.9%
- Minnesota Twins - 2.3%
- Miami Marlins - 1.8%
- Seattle Mariners - 1.1%
- Chicago Cubs - 1.1%
- Cincinnati Reds - 0.1%
As we can see, the Atlanta Braves are heading into the 2023 MLB playoffs with a strong upper hand. Meanwhile, both Texas teams sport decent chances, while three of the five AL East teams have odds between 5 and 6%.
