2023 MLB playoffs: Best bets, picks for Sunday with Rangers' Jordan Montgomery, Astros' Yordan Alvarez on top

Saturday here in best bets, I was left with the lingering residue of failure. 

What was I thinking? What in the actual hell was I doing? Why would I bet on Clayton Kershaw to go deeper in the game than five innings when he'd only been throwing five innings per start the entire second half, with diminished velocity. Man, terrible. The good news is that despite my awful gaffe and Kershaw's vomit-inducing start, I still went 2-2 on the day thanks to Alex Bregman and Trea Turner (again) coming through. I'm 8-5 so far here in Best Bets for the playoffs and that includes being 3 for 3 with Turner. 

Let's grab another couple wins Sunday, with only the AL in action. 

Rangers (+117) at Orioles (-138), 4:07 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: LHP Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20) vs. RHP Grayson Rodríguez (7-4, 4.35)

The Rangers took Game 1 of this series despite striking out a bunch. For Game 2, it's a quality rookie against a crafty veteran. 

The play: Montgomery over 14.5 outs recorded (-145)

For the life of me, I can't figure out this line. It looks too good to be true; that's why there's juice. The best I can come up with is all the short leashes in the playoffs so far, including with Rangers starter Andrew Heaney on Saturday, when he went just 3 2/3 innings. 

Montgomery is different, though, and the only way I see him getting pulled before finishing five innings is if he gets shelled. That seems unlikely. 

Since joining the Rangers, Montgomery pitched to a 2.79 ERA while averaging nearly 6 1/3 innings per start in the regular season. In Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against the Rays, he went seven scoreless innings. Only once with the Rangers has he not completed five innings and in 33 starts (including the playoff start) this season, he's finished the fifth inning 29 times. 

• The Orioles haven't seen him this season, and unfamiliarity generally benefits the pitcher.
• He was better on the road this season than at either of his homes.
• He's thrown well in Camden Yards, generally, in his career. He started there twice last season and worked five innings both times. 
• The Rangers' bullpen is the most unreliable feature of the ballclub, to the point that Rangers manager Bruce Bochy used a starter (Dane Dunning) in relief in Game 1. The Game 2 setup won't be the same and they need Montgomery to get deeper into the game. 

Again, this bet only loses if Montgomery gets hit hard. It's possible, but it doesn't seem likely. 

Twins (+129) at Astros (-151), 8:03 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: RHP Pablo López (11-8, 3.66) vs. LHP Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45)

By no means was the Astros' Game 1 win a blowout. The Twins got back in the game and made Houston sweat late in the game. Credit them for that in a lopsided pitching matchup. This game isn't that, as López is capable of looking like a playoff ace. Still, the biggest vibe I got from Game 1 is that the Playoff Astros were back and they've shaken off their home woes. They just had a different look than late in the regular season, didn't they?

The play:Yordan Alvarez over 1.5 H+R+RBI (+110)

I'm hearing my dad in my ear right now. He always preaches "if it looks too good to be true, it probably is" regarding gambling plays. Both of today's plays look too good to be true and he would caution me that there's a reason for it and maybe I should stay away, but I'm too stubborn to listen, I guess. 

Getting this one at plus money is insane to me. Yordan will be slotted third in the lineup and if the Astros generate any offense, he's likely to be in the middle of it. Going back to the regular season, he's collected a hit in nine of his last 10 games. He hit two homers with three RBI and three runs scored in Game 1. He absolutely destroys right-handed pitching. 

He's only seen López twice in his career and that was last season, but he was 2 for 2. 

In the regular season, Yordan's average game produced 2.58 hits plus runs plus RBI. In Game 1 of the ALDS, his total was eight. 

Again, this being plus money just to get to two seems too good to be true. Sorry, Dad, I'm playing it.