MLB picks, best bets for Astros vs. Rangers in ALCS: Marcus Semien has strong history against Justin Verlander

Welcome to the league championship series, with the ALCS starting on Sunday and the NLCS coming Monday. It's such an exciting time and I'm elated to continue with Best Bets here on this fine Sunday. The only thing about Sunday that brings me down is that Trea Turner won't be in action. He has been our golden goose this postseason. The Phillies have played in six playoff games, I've bet the over on his hits plus runs plus RBI (H+R+RBI) prop all six times and it has cashed all six times. Ridiculous. 

I actually got a bit worried before Game 4. That voice in my head started to say I've pressed my luck far too much on him and should back off. Fortunately, the principled gambler in me said I was going to ride him as long as he was hot. It's like playing blackjack and having an absurd hot streak where the dealer busts something like seven times in a row. You don't leave the table. You wait until you've had a few losing hands and you know for sure the hot streak is over. In the case of Turner and Game 4, he went 4 for 4 with a double and home run, easily cashing. 

I tell this story for a reason. I've run into baseball gamblers who won't play props on a player if he had a big game the previous day. I can't possibly go harder against this. The hot hand theory can absolutely work and this Turner streak is proof. 

We'll be back Monday with a Trea Turner play and that isn't a spoiler. We're playing him every single game until he gives us a reason not to. In the meantime, let's make this 16-9 record better. 

Rangers (+119) at Astros (-140), 8:15 p.m. ET

Starting pitchers: LHP Jordan Montgomery (10-11, 3.20) vs. RHP Justin Verlander (13-8, 3.22)

The battle for Texas is the ALCS, in the first ever LCS matchup between two teams from the same state. The Astros won the regular-season series 9-4, but that doesn't actually mean they have the advantage here. They do get home-field advantage due to this, but that could actually be a blessing in disguise for the Rangers. The Astros were 39-42 at home this regular season and were 1-1 in the ALDS. I can't shake the 2019 World Series vibes. 

The play:Marcus Semien over 1.5 H+R+RBI (-155)

There's a lot of juice on this, but it's gonna be worth the squeeze. Semien led the league in both runs (122) and hits (185) during the regular season. He also drove home 100 runs despite being a leadoff man. That makes for an average of 2.51 H+R+RBI per game and only need two here. He hasn't hit quite as well in the playoffs, but he's still gone over on this prop three out of five games.

Most enticingly is Semien's history against Verlander. They've actually faced each other 43 times with Semien getting 14 hits (.326 average) with a double, triple and two home runs. The most recent meeting was Sept. 6, when Verlander worked seven strong innings, allowing only two runs (one earned) and Semien went 3 for 3 with a home run and RBI single. 

Semien has only struck out one time against Verlander since 2019 and since July 24 of 2019, he's gathered eight hits, including two home runs and a double, compared to one strikeout. For whatever reason, Semien just sees the ball very well out of Verlander's hand. We don't need to worry about a reason; we can just play the prop here and take advantage.