2023 MLS Cup Odds and Expert Betting Predictions: LAFC remains favorite

docsports.com

05 June 2023

2023 MLS Cup Odds and Expert Betting Predictions: LAFC remains favorite

It’s been more than a decade since Major League Soccer produced a repeat champion — that being the Los Angeles Galaxy in 2011 and 2012.

If you believe the current MLS Cup odds, the back-to-back drought will end this fall. And once again, a team from Los Angeles will accomplish the feat.

With the 2023 regular season nearing its midpoint, Los Angeles Football Club (LAFC) is the across-the-board favorite to defend the MLS Cup it captured with a thrilling victory over the Philadelphia Union in November.

LAFC, which opened as the top choice in the 2023 MLS Cup futures market, currently has title odds ranging from +340 to +400, depending on the sportsbook.

Here’s a look at the primary favorites to win this year’s MLS Cup.

Get sports picks for every league and nearly every matchup on Doc’s free picks page.

BetMGM’s 2023 MLS Cup Odds

LAFC: +350

Given its position atop the MLS Cup odds board, one would assume LAFC owns the league’s best record and has built a nice cushion in the Western Conference standings.

Not exactly.

LAFC (7-1-4, 25 points) enters the first full week of June in third place in the Western Conference. Also, four teams in the Eastern Conference — Cincinnati (39 points), Nashville (31), Philadelphia (30) and New England (27) — are ahead of LAFC in the points department.

Then again, LAFC has played at least two fewer games (12) than each of the league’s other 28 clubs. In fact, all but five squads enter this week having played at least 16 games.

So, the defending champs have plenty of opportunities over the next 4 1/2 months to leapfrog the teams ahead of them in the standings — and perhaps even win a second straight MLS Supporters’ Shield, which goes to the club that finishes with the best regular-season record.

FC Cincinnati: +450

Now in its fifth MLS season, FC Cincinnati is off to a blistering 12-1-3 start. The only blemish: a 5-1 loss at St. Louis on April 15.

As a result, FC Cincinnati leads the Supporters’ Shield race with 39 points and has moved directly behind LAFC as the consensus second choice in the 2023 MLS Cup futures market.

In addition to earning a league-best 2.44 points per game, FC Cincinnati is the only team with an immaculate home record (9-0-0).

While BetMGM has FC Cincinnati at +450 to win the Cup, bettors who want a piece of this club to win it all can nab +750 odds at FanDuel.

Nashville SC and Philadelphia Union: +700

Nashville FC and Philadelphia join LAFC and Cincinnati as the only teams currently sporting single-digit odds in the MLS Cup futures market.

While Nashville sits one point ahead of Philadelphia in the Eastern Conference standings, the teams boast near-identical numbers.

Nashville is 9-3-4 overall, 6-1-2 at home and has a +13 goal differential. (The latter is tied with LAFC for second-best in the league.)

Philadelphia is 9-4-3 overall, 6-1-2 at home and has a +12 goal differential.

And while the Union rank fourth in the league in goals scored (27), Nashville is second in goals allowed (11).

The teams will square off for the first of two regular-season meetings on July 12 in Philly.

New England Revolution: +1000

It’s been a brutal year so far for New England sports fans, with the Boston Bruins and Boston Celtics both getting bounced earlier than expected in the NHL and NBA playoffs, respectively.

Throw in the fact that the Boston Red Sox and New England Patriots appear to be in rebuilding mode, and the region’s best hopes for a championship just might rest with the Revolution.

The irony: Despite being one of the league’s 10 founding franchises, the Revolution have never won an MLS Cup, losing all five of their title appearances.

This year, New England (7-3-6) is fourth in the Eastern Conference behind Cincinnati, Nashville and Philadelphia. And the club’s 27 points are tied for fifth-most in the league.

However, the Revolution are just +5 in the goal-differential department. Also, their 20 goals allowed are the most among the top MLS Cup contenders.

St. Louis City FC: +1100

St. Louis City FC was added as Major League Soccer’s 29th club this season. So, it’s no surprise that the expansion franchise opened with the 29th longest odds to win the 2023 MLS Cup — we’re talking +10000 (100-to-1) at BetMGM.

Now? St. Louis City is down to the +1100 sixth choice at BetMGM.

A big reason why the club has skyrocketed up the MLS Cup odds board: a league-best +18 goal differential (no other squad is better than +13).

St. Louis City also is tied for second in victories (nine); tied for second in goals scored (32); tied for third in goals allowed (14); and ranks third in average points earned per match (2.00).

Then again, there’s a reason why St. Louis City began its first season with astronomical odds to win the 2023 title. Since the league’s inaugural campaign in 1996, only one expansion franchise has ever hoisted the MLS Cup: the Chicago Fire in 1998.

2023 MLS Cup Odds

LAFC +350

FC Cincinnati +450

Nashville FC +700

Philadelphia Union +700

New England Revolution +700

St. Louis City SC +1100

Seattle Sounders +2000

Atlanta United +2000

Orlando City +2500

San Jose Earthquakes +3300

Austin FC +4000