2023 NBA bets, lines and stats for Saturday

97.3 ESPN

28 October 2023

Eric Moody, ESPNOct 28, 2023, 12:00 PM ET

As the NBA season marches on, Saturday night offers a basketball extravaganza with seven captivating games on the schedule. There are some key players on the injury report, like Devin Booker, Bradley Beal, Darius Garland, Zach LaVine, and Tyrese Halliburton. The final word on some of these players' availability may not be revealed until shortly before tipoff.

The matchup I'm looking forward to the most is between the Phoenix Suns and the Utah Jazz. Utah, under head coach Will Hardy, has thrived, defying the odds and surpassing expectations last season, largely thanks to Lauri Markkanen, who was recognized as the Most Improved Player. However, it's crucial for bettors not to underestimate the sheer brilliance of Kevin Durant, even when the Suns are grappling with injuries to key players like Beal and Booker. Durant remains one of the modern NBA's premier scorers and possesses a unique ability to singlehandedly take control of a game. The burning question is whether the Jazz can find a way to contain his extraordinary talent. On Saturday night, we'll find out.

Here are some of my favorite bets for tonight's slate.

Moody's favorite bets for Saturday night

Best bet: Anthony Edwards over 28.5 points + assists. Edwards scored 26 points, accumulated 14 rebounds and had one assist against the Raptors on Wednesday. This is a great matchup for him against a Heat team that has played three games in four nights and has a history of resting its players. Edwards is poised to increase his assist numbers against Miami, thanks to a valuable reminder from Timberwolves head coach Chris Finch following the game against the Raptors. He told Edwards that he didn't need to carry the burden of every possession, emphasizing that success often lies in making the right pass.

Best bet: Kevin Durant over 47.5 points + assists + rebounds. This is a lofty number, but let's look at the circumstances the Slim Reaper finds himself in against the Jazz. Booker is doubtful due to a mid-foot sprain and Beal has already been ruled out due to lower back tightness. On Thursday, Durant had 39 points, 11 rebounds, and two assists with a usage rate of 46% against the Lakers. On Saturday night, he'll face a Jazz team that ranked 24th last season in points allowed per 100 possessions and appears to be following a similar trajectory this year.

Best bet: Joel Embiid over 28.5 points. Embiid wasn't very efficient from the field (9-21 FG) or from the free-throw line (3-8 FT) against the Bucks on Thursday night. That will change on Saturday against the Raptors.

His usage rate against Toronto was 39%, and he'll be the Philadelphia 76ers' focal point offensively as they look to win their first game of the season. I expect Embiid to deliver an MVP-caliber performance on Saturday.

Best bet: Xavier Tillman over 20.5 points + rebounds. After Steven Adams' season-ending knee injury, Tillman had my curiosity, but now that he has surpassed 20.5 PR and 30-plus minutes in two consecutive games, he has my attention. He performed well last season filling in for Adams and has done so again this year. As a key member of the Grizzlies' rotation, Tillman should have success against a Wizards team that ranks last in points allowed per 100 possessions and allowed the Pacers to amass a 68% effective field goal percentage on Wednesday.

Best bet: Daniel Gafford over 1.5 blocks. This is one prop bet at plus odds that caught my attention. Last season, Gafford averaged 1.4 blocks per game, and with Kristaps Porzingis now with the Celtics, he is one of the only bigs on the roster. He had two blocks against the Pacers on Wednesday, and there is a good chance he replicates those numbers against the Grizzlies.