2023 NBA Championship odds, picks: Three Finals predictions

With NBA All-Star weekend officially behind us, we’re heading into the home stretch of the regular season with some two dozen games separating 16 teams from the postseason. 

It’s also the perfect opportunity for some speculative buying in the title market, where a handful of teams are priced too far down the board ahead of the final two months of the season. 

2023 NBA Championship odds and picks

Denver Nuggets (+750) 

The Nuggets have had the best record in the West for almost the entire season, and they’ve been led by the league’s reigning two-time MVP amid another award-worthy campaign. So what’s with this semi-dismissive price? 

Yes, Denver has fallen short in postseasons past, but Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. are finally healthy for the first time since Nikola Jokic began his assault on the NBA record books in 2020-21. The result is one of the best offenses we’ve seen in NBA history by offensive rating (118.2), effective field-goal percentage (58.2 percent), and just about any other efficiency metric. 

If Denver can hold onto the top spot in the West, it’ll benefit from home-court advantage through the conference finals and likely its easiest path to that round in years. Nothing is a guarantee in the loaded Western Conference, but this price feels like a legitimate value on the presumptive No. 1 seed. 

Los Angeles Clippers (12/1) 

This is my favorite bet on the board, and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s the last time we see Los Angeles dealing this price for a long, long time. 

It feels rather obvious in hindsight that Kawhi Leonard would eventually return to form following his ACL injury in the 2021 postseason that sidelined him all of last season. He’s clearly done that and then some: The five-time All-NBA forward is averaging 27.6 points and 1.9 steals on 51.5 percent shooting over his last 17 games, and the Clippers have gone 12-5 with a 7.4 net rating — which would be the best mark in the league across an entire season. 

You can make a compelling case that L.A. has the highest ceiling in the league with a healthy Leonard and Paul George, and the stats largely bear that out over the last month or so. Clearly, injuries will always be a concern with this group and is largely why we’re seeing a discounted price here. Yet it’s one I’ll gladly pay given the immense upside with this group. 

Betting on the NBA?

Last year, Cleveland was a feel-good story with upside before Jarrett Allen’s late-season injury tanked its postseason chances. This time, this team is a legitimate threat to win it all — and the betting market is still slow to catch on. 

Through the All-Star break, the Cavaliers rank second in the entire league in net rating (+5.8) with a top-10 offense and the NBA’s best defensive rating (109.3). They boast four All-Star caliber players in their starting lineup, one of whom is a dark-horse MVP candidate in Donovan Mitchell, who has already proven his playoff bona fides with some of the best postseason scoring efforts we’ve ever seen in his days in Utah. 

All that’s missing, really, is for this group to make some noise in the postseason. I expect the Cavs to waltz through a first-round matchup against one of the many flawed Eastern Conference also-rans that will make up the bottom of the bracket. And by the time Cleveland reaches the second round? This price will be long gone.