NBA Finals futures picks: Best bets at the All-Star break

The Record
 

NBA teams are grabbing some well-deserved rest before the season resumes on February 23, making it a perfect time to do some futures shopping.

The latest: The Denver Nuggets are a dominant home team that’s likely to have homecourt advantage through the playoffs. The Los Angeles Clippers have one of the highest ceilings in the NBA and the Cleveland Cavaliers are emerging contenders.

Here are our NBA Finals futures picks.

NBA odds as of 11:12 a.m. on 02/20/2022.

NBA Finals futures picks

Best Bet: Denver Nuggets (+600)

We’re staying away from the Eastern Conference on our best bet here as a likely series between the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks seems too close to call.

We’ll also steer clear of the Phoenix Suns, largely because we haven’t seen them play with Kevin Durant yet — and KD and Chris Paul’s combined age of 71 has us worried about how this group will hold up physically.

That leads us to the team with the fourth-shortest odds, the Nuggets.

Led by MVP favourite Nikola Jokic, Denver is a dominant offensive outfit that’s produced the third-best net rating in the NBA (+4.5).

One of the things that’s most intriguing about Denver is its extreme homecourt advantage, aided by the fact the team plays at high altitude. The Nuggets are 27-4 at Ball Arena this season with an NBA-best +11.9 home net rating.

Considering they have a five-game lead atop the Western Conference, their ability to dominate at home could be the difference for them as they move through the playoffs.

Quick picks

Clippers (+1,000): Los Angeles is a bit of a mystery box because of the team’s combination of injury trouble and drastic load management tactics.

That said, the team is quietly 23-11 when Kawhi Leonard is in the lineup and the two-time Finals MVP is looking good lately after a lacklustre start to the season.

For all that’s gone wrong for the Clippers in recent years, Leonard and Paul George are still an intimidating combination on the wing and the team remains stocked with quality role players. It’s also led by one of the NBA’s best coaches, Tyronn Lue — the ‘Bill Belichick of the NBA‘.

Los Angeles sits just fourth in the Western Conference standings, but this team travels well. The Clippers are one of just two teams in the conference with a road record above .500. No one will want to face them if they can stay healthy.

Betting on an Eastern Conference team other than the Celtics and Bucks is a bit of a dicey proposition, but this is appealing value for Cleveland.

The Cavaliers rank second in the NBA in net rating (+5.8) and have the league’s best defence behind twin towers, Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley. While Cleveland’s relative inexperience is seen by many as a negative, having a young core could help insulate the team from injury troubles.

Offseason addition Donovan Mitchell should mitigate the team’s lack of playoff chops as he’s been a dynamic postseason performer in the past.

In Mitchell’s last 14 playoff games, he’s averaged 30.1 points, clearing the 30-point mark 10 times.

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