2023 NBA playoffs: Odds, picks, betting tips for Monday

Apr 17, 2023, 10:30 AM ET

ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data, featuring ESPN's proprietary Basketball Power Index (BPI) to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds for Monday are provided by Caesars Sportsbook.

What you need to know for Monday's games

Playoff pressure is mounting. In the defining game of Monday's two-game slate, the Golden State Warriors seek to equalize their first-round series with a road win over the Sacramento Kings. The Brooklyn Nets, meanwhile, are sizable underdogs to the Philadelphia 76ers in a game with a sluggish total thanks to Philly's deliberate pace.

A Warriors victory would counter a season-long trend of struggling on the road, although Golden State remains positioned as a small favorite in a contest with a robust total around 240 points at most books. Can the Warriors suppress All-Star big Domantas Sabonis for a second straight game? My model projects him for just over 50 fantasy points using DraftKings' scoring model, while for the Warriors, Klay Thompson stands out as a value in DFS lineups.

Joel Embiid is unsurprisingly projected for nearly 60 DraftKings points as an obvious building block in lineups, but another angle of interest is his passing prop of 3.5 assists. This number is in line with his season average, but the relentlessly hard double-teams sent at Embiid in Game 1 of this series compelled the scoring champ to make quick passes. Most of these dishes converted into assists on Saturday, but it's reasonable to expect a few more dimes given he threw nearly 40 passes on Saturday.

-- Jim McCormick

Breaking down the slate

Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers
Game 2, 7:30 p.m. ET, 76ers lead series 1-0

Records (Against the Spread)
Nets: 45-37 (43-39-0)
76ers: 54-28 (46-35-1)

Line: 76ers (-10) Total: 213.5
Money Line: Nets (+360), 76ers (-480)
BPI Projection: 76ers by 11.5

Injury Report:
Nets: Ben Simmons, (OUT - Back)
76ers: None reported

Best bet: 76ers over 115.5 points. Philadelphia dominated the Nets in Game 1. The entire team delivered an amazing performance, especially Joel Embiid and James Harden. The 76ers became the fifth team to record 20 3-point field goals, 30 assists and 10 steals in a single playoff game. Over their last three games, Philadelphia averaged 130 points. The 76ers have also scored 115 or more points in three of their four regular season games against the Nets. -- Eric Moody

Best bet: James Harden over 30.5 total points + assists. Harden has played well against his former team all season. He averaged 26.0 PPG and 6.5 APG in two regular season meetings and dropped 23 points and 13 assists against them in Game 1 of the postseason. The Nets don't have an answer for Joel Embiid in the middle, and when he collapses the defense, Harden has the option to shoot or set up teammates almost at will. -- André Snellings

Golden State Warriors at Sacramento Kings
Game 2, 10 p.m. ET, Kings lead series 1-0

Records (Against the Spread)
Warriors: 44-38 (39-42-1)
Kings: 48-34 (45-37-0)

Line: Warriors (-1.5) Total: 239.5
Money Line: Warriors (-125), Kings (+105)
BPI Projection: Kings by 2.1

Injury Report:
Warriors: Jordan Poole, (GTD - Ankle); Andre Iguodala, (OUT - Wrist); Ty Jerome, (OUT - Illness); Ryan Rollins, (OUT - Foot)
Kings: Matthew Dellavedova, (OUT - Finger)

Best bet: Domantas Sabonis over 38.5 points + assists + rebounds. Sabonis shot a dismal 29.4% from the field on Saturday, his lowest rate of the season. Even though he crushed the Warriors on the glass on Saturday. Sabonis averaged 19.1 points, 7.3 assists, and 12.3 rebounds per game during the regular season. It's the kind of performance bettors should see on Monday. -- Moody

Best bet: Stephen Curry over 29.5 points. The Kings score a lot of points and allow a lot of points as well, and this style works perfectly for Curry. In three regular season games against the Kings Curry averaged 33.0 PPG, and he dropped 30 points against them in Game 1. But importantly, the Warriors lost Game 1 when Curry missed a good look from downtown at the buzzer. I look for him to come out primed for a big bounce back game, perhaps even approaching the 47 points he dropped against the Kings in their second matchup this season. -- Snellings