Kings vs 76ers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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12 January 2024

Kings vs 76ers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

With Philadelphia currently vulnerable in the paint due to Joel Embiid's injury, Rory Breasail is expecting Domantas Sabonis to have a big night on the boards for Sacramento. Read more in our Kings vs. 76ers betting picks.

Every team hits bumps throughout the season. Injuries, a long road trip, or a bad matchup can sink a promising team, and both the Sacramento Kings and Philadelphia 76ers have hit such a patch in the NBA odds.

The 76ers have lost three straight and Joel Embiid has been out of the lineup for six of the last eight games and is set to miss tonight’s game as well. The Kings have won two in a row against some of the league's bottom feeders, but have also suffered recent blowout losses to the Pelicans, Trail Blazers, and Timberwolves.

Both squads will be looking to right the ship with a much-needed win on Friday, January 12. My NBA picks and predictions for Kings vs. 76ers expect Domantas Sabonis to dominate the glass with Embiid out.

Kings vs 76ers odds

Kings vs 76ers predictions

It’s bizarre to think of it now, but Sacramento Kings star Domantas Sabonis began his NBA career as a corner 3-point specialist. Specialist is perhaps generous, as the Thunder stuck him in the corner by default, not because they had any particular belief in the merit of the idea. He averaged just three rebounds per game as a rookie.

When Sabonis was traded to the Pacers, it became clear immediately just how much more he was capable of. Even with the awkward frontcourt fit between himself and Myles Turner, he turned into one of the NBA’s most effective and productive big men.

It wasn’t until his move to Sacramento however that he was fully unlocked as a full-time center, and subsequently made All-NBA. Currently, Sabonis leads the NBA in rebounds with an average of 12.7 boards per game, having also secured the top spot in that category last season.

In many ways, Domas is an unconventional big. He’s an offensive hub because of his handoff game, not because he’s a massive post-up threat. And while Sabonis is not the level of rim protector typically demanded by the NBA’s best fives, he remains a beast at outmuscling and out-positioning opponents on the glass.

By his lofty standard, however, Domas has had three straight low-production games on the boards, totaling just 10 in each game. As such, his listed rebounding props for tonight are more favorable than usual.

What oddsmakers aren't factoring in, however, is that those Kings' recent games were all blowouts, which naturally depresses the overall individual production. In the three games before that — which were decided by margins in single digits — Sabonis averaged 19 rebounds per game.

If he was squaring off against Joel Embiid tonight, these odds would be justifiable. But in the Philadelphia 76ers' last eight games, most of which they were without Embiid like they are tonight, they’ve fallen to dead last in defensive rebounding percentage.

The 76ers were never a good rebounding team, but now they’re losing to the likes of barely trying teams like the Wizards. I’m betting that the NBA’s best rebounder is going to punish them on the glass Friday.

My best bet: Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds (-132)

Kings vs 76ers same-game parlay

Domantas Sabonis Over 12.5 rebounds

Domantas Sabonis Over 22.5 points

De'Aaron Fox Under 27.5 points

For my Friday same-game parlay, I’m backing the Over on Sabonis’ points prop to pair with my best bet, while also backing a low-scoring night for De’Aaron Fox.

Sabonis is just going to have an incredible matchup advantage with Embiid out of the lineup. While Paul Reed qualifies as a decent backup, he is seriously overtaxed as a member of the starting five, and Sabonis is already averaging 23.6 points over his last 10 games. I expect this to be a close game overall, so I think Domas is well set up to score above his season average.

Fox was the most consistent player in the Kings offense for much of the year, but he’s hit a bad stretch of games recently. Fox is averaging 24.2 points over his last 10 outings and hasn’t had 28 or more in five straight games.

Nic Batum and De’Anthony Melton are probably going to take turns with the Fox assignment, and both bring a combination of length and tenacity that could bother him. They don’t have the strength to make him completely wilt as Jalen Suggs did recently, but given Fox’s struggles of late, I think they’ll do enough.

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Kings vs 76ers spread and Over/Under analysis

Friday’s spread is a tight one, with the 76ers getting between -1 and -1.5 points at home.

The 76ers have been one of the best teams against the spread all season long, but they’ve been struggling in recent weeks. Without Embiid, this team has started to leak oil.

The 76ers are 2-4 straight up in their last six games and have played at the level of a Bottom-10 team on both sides of the ball per Cleaning the Glass. They have a -7.1-point differential and a shockingly bad -12 spread differential in that time as well. They are searching for any kind of consistency without Embiid, and so far have not found it.

The Kings for their part have surprised oddsmakers this season often enough, but their recent level of play has not been inspiring, mostly picking up wins against the NBA’s few tanking teams while failing to compete with the quality ones.

Oddsmakers aren’t expecting a lot of defense in this one. The total for Kings vs. Sixers opened at 239.5 and has since risen as high as 241.5 at some sportsbooks.

Before Christmas when Embiid first began to miss time, the 76ers had a simple but effective base defense. They limited opponent 3-point attempts and funneled shots to the rim where Joel would force them into more difficult attempts. It has been largely effective, in part validated by the league-best rate at which opponents are shooting and missing short midrange jumpers against them.

Philly's defensive profile hasn’t changed with Embiid missing time, however, and now those contested midrange shots are shifting to become much easier looks right at the basket. Opponents have been blitzing the 76ers in recent weeks, and it’s not hard to imagine Malik Monk doing real damage to the Sixers on the interior.

It’s also hard to have much faith in the Kings' defense. I’d lean Over.