2023 New Mexico Bowl: Predictions for New Mexico State-Fresno State

As the 2023 college football bowl season starts, it seems as though every team is dealing with bad news. That's no different for the competitors in the New Mexico Bowl, the New Mexico State Aggies and the Fresno State Bulldogs.

Bulldogs head coach Jeff Tedford was forced to leave the team due to health issues. In his stead, Tim Skipper will lead the team. On the bright side, quarterback Mikey Keene who missed a few games down the stretch due to injury should be cleared to return for the Bulldogs. Fresno State's offense really started to struggle with backup Logan Fife under center. Keene's return could breathe new life into the Bulldogs' once-potent offense.

For New Mexico State, there's also good news and bad news. The good news is that quarterback Diego Pavia is expected to be ready for the New Mexico Bowl after recovering from a shoulder injury. The bad news is that eight players are entering the transfer portal, including standout receiver Trent Hudson, who finished the season with ten touchdowns. Without Hudson, the Aggies are already at a disadvantage. If Pavia cannot go either, New Mexico State will have a mountain to climb if they want the victory.

Here is what experts across the internet are predicting for this game.

Predictions:

Sportsbook Wire: New Mexico State (-3.5)

To put it simply, the Aggies are 8-4 ATS this year. The Bulldogs are 4-7. When push comes to shove, the Aggies overperform, the Bulldogs underperform. Perhaps the return of Keene could push the Bulldogs over the Aggies, but that is still not guaranteed.

CBS Sports: New Mexico State ML

CBS Sports points out that the Aggies have never lost (4-0-1) in bowl games. With how banged up the Bulldogs have been, even with the questions surrounding the personnel available for New Mexico State, it's tough to side with a Fresno State team that has lost two straight.

Fox Sports: New Mexico State 26, Fresno State 25

Based on the odds and lines, Fox Sports claims the Aggies have a 64.3 percent chance of walking away with the victory. Fresno State has just a 40 percent implied chance. Clearly, Fox Sports is favoring the Bulldogs with their prediction.

BetMGM: New Mexico State ML

BetMGM gives the Aggies a 63 percent chance to win this game and a 55.6 percent chance to cover the spread. While New Mexico State has covered the spread in 11 of their 15 games, the questionable status of Pavia makes the ML a safer bet that still offers a solid payout.

2023 New Mexico Bowl: New Mexico State vs. Fresno State odds, lines

The Aggies are favorites to defeat the Bulldogs, according to the BetMGM NCAA oddsbest mobile sports betting apps offering NCAA betting promos in 2023.

Betting odds, as of Thursday evening:

• Spread: New Mexico State (-3.5)
• Moneyline: New Mexico State (-185); Fresno State (+150)
• Over/under: 51.5

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