College football bowl game betting preview: How to bet Saturday’s games
With the advent of the transfer portal, the rise of opt-outs and the ever-spinning coaching carousel, picking bowl game winners has turned into a challenging proposition. Teams that looked strong during the regular season may now be missing a whole lot of production, and others may be playing under coaches that are there only on an interim basis.
We’re here to help sift through the comings and goings to give you a few plays during the college football postseason. My picks during the regular season went a pretty good 30-22, and hopefully I can keep that going as we inch toward the College Football Playoff.
Point spreads and totals taken Wednesday from DraftKings Sportsbook.
All times Eastern
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Myrtle Beach Bowl
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio
Ohio would have been a fairly easy pick over a Georgia Southern team that lost four straight to end the season, but the Bobcats have been decimated by transfers, particularly on offense: Starting quarterback Kurtis Rourke, wide receivers Miles Cross (team-high 617 receiving yards) and Tyler Walton (37 receptions), and running backs Sieh Bangura and O’Shaan Allison (1,263 rushing yards, 10 touchdowns combined) all have left. But apart from first-team all-Mid-American Conference linebacker Keye Thompson, who also transferred, Ohio’s defense remains untouched and matches up well with a Georgia Southern offense that passes the ball 61.9 percent of the time (fourth in the country). The Bobcats allow only 6.1 yards per pass attempt (tied for ninth nationally) and rank 13th in expected points allowed per pass play and 15th in defensive passing success rate.
The pick: under 48.5
Cure Bowl
Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State
Miami probably will be down to third-string quarterback Henry Hesson (five career pass attempts, none of them this season) after Brett Gabbert suffered a season-ending injury in October and replacement Aveon Smith transferred after helping lead the RedHawks to the MAC title. Appalachian State also will be down a few skill-position players, with wide receiver Dashaun Davis (No. 3 on the team in receptions, No. 4 in receiving yards) and running back Nate Noel (team-high 834 rushing yards) transferring. Miami operates at one of the slowest paces in the nation (30.8 seconds per play, No. 130 out of 133 Football Bowl Subdivision teams) and now has to break in an extremely green quarterback. Plus, there could be weather issues in Orlando (wind and steady rain). It all adds up to the under.
The pick: under 44.5
New Mexico Bowl
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
Fresno State started the season 8-1 and was ranked 25th in the coaches’ poll, but things went completely south as the Bulldogs lost their final three games, two of them to teams (New Mexico and San Diego State) that tied for last place in the Mountain West. Fresno State’s rushing defense completely evaporated, allowing 6.1 yards per carry over the final three games after allowing just 3.5 in its first nine, and the offense averaged only 17.7 points per game after averaging 34 in its first nine. Coach Jeff Tedford will not coach in the bowl game because of health reasons, and there’s a sense the Bulldogs would just like this season to end.
New Mexico State, on the other hand, has had a resoundingly successful season for a program that’s usually among the nation’s worst, winning 10 games for the first time in 63 years. Led by Conference USA offensive player of the year Diego Pavia, who will play despite a shoulder injury the quarterback suffered in a conference championship game loss to Liberty, the Aggies average 5.8 yards per carry, ranking fourth nationally, and come in at No. 5 in rushing success rate. Now they get to play only about three hours north of campus and are expecting a sizable contingent of fans, essentially making this a home game.
A bowl win and 11 victories would be a crowning achievement for Coach Jerry Kill and the Aggies, who match up well against a Fresno State team that has cratered.
