2023 NFL Futures Best Bets: Christian Watson

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down why there is value in the Green Bay Packers Christian Watson’s receiving props.

Christian Watson O/U 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns

Last season as a rookie, Christian Watson recorded seven receiving touchdowns with Aaron Rodgers, so it’s no surprise we see Watson’s 2023 receiving touchdowns prop open at O/U 4.5 now that Jordan Love is the starting quarterback.

Watson scored all seven receiving touchdowns during a four-game stretch versus the Cowboys, Titans, Eagles, and Bears on 15 catches. Watson’s what we call a homerun hitter in football because he can score anytime the opportunity is presented, especially as a deep or red zone threat.

To start the year, Watson totaled one game of three receptions and zero games of five or more targets throughout the first six games.

Over the final eight games of 2022, Watson totaled three or more receptions in seven games and five-plus targets in all eight outings. Watson’s confidence grew as the season went on as did the coaching staff’s confidence in Watson.

As a rookie, Watson held a 25.5% target share (25th), an ADOT of 13.8 yards (12th), and 14 red zone targets (22nd). When looking at his efficiency with Rodgers last year, Watson was quietly top 10 in production premium, target premium, QB rating per target, and true catch rate, per PlayerProfiler.

While Love will be an obvious downgrade over the two-time MVP (Rodgers), Love and Watson will have an entire offseason, plus preseason to work together.

Watson remains Green Bay’s best offensive red zone threat in the pass game entering 2023.

Green Bay’s top three receiving options not named Aaron Jones, AJ Dillon, or Christian Watson are Romeo Dubbs, Jayden Reed, and Luke Musgrave, so give me Watson Over 4.5 receiving touchdowns at -110 odds up to Over 5.5.

The second-year receiver should lead Green Bay in receiving touchdowns and five should be enough to get the job done.

Pick: Christian Watson Over 4.5 Receiving Touchdowns (1u)

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