2023 PDC World Darts Championship picks, odds: Daily predictions until a champion is crowned at the Ally Pally
What began as a field of 96 of the world’s best darts players has slowly been whittled down to a field of 32 players at the PDC World Championship. As the home stretch of the tournament is set to begin on Wednesday, there are sure to be many more incredible moments, surprising upsets and amazing darts performances.
In the previous round of the World Championship, we saw many upsets and defeats that very few people could have predicted. Of the current top 32 players, according to the PDC Order of Merit, 11 of these individuals suffered defeat in Round 2 of the World Championships. These defeats include the likes of: No. 4 Peter “Snakebite” Wright, No. 6 Nathan “The Asp” Aspinall, No. 7 Danny “The Freeze” Noppert and eight other competitors ranked in the world top 32.
Despite many of these big names suffering an early defeat, many major title holders and young up-and-comers still remain. And with each victory in this event comes a large pay raise, as advancing into the third round netted each player a payout of $80,000.
Looking at the post-Christmas schedule, Round 3 begins with three days of very exciting matches. Before examining the specific matchups, consider a few statistics that have developed through the first couple rounds:
Most 180sLuke Littler (12)Chris Dobey, Matt Campbell, Florian Hempel (10)
Scott Williams (9)
Overall Tournament AveragesStephen Bunting – 107.28Chris Dobey – 103.09Daryl Gurney – 100.79Michael Smith – 100.09Raymond van Barneveld – 99.81
Gary Anderson – 98.29
Top Tournament Checkout PercentagesMichael van Gerwen – 60%Scott Williams, Ricky Evans – 56%Raymond van Barneveld – 55%
Joe Cullen, Berry van Peer, Gabriel Clemens – 53%
As the tournament progresses into the later stages, the rounds grow larger, with players being required to win more and more sets at each stage of the event. Players who consistently find high-scoring averages and checkout percentages will inevitably fare better than those who struggle in one or both of those areas.
Three Trends to follow
Michael van Gerwen checkout percentage of 60 percent. MVG is already the odds-on favorite to win this tournament. He is so difficult to defeat if he can continue to hit doubles at this rate, or even any rate greater than 45 percent. All it takes is one bad match for someone to be eliminated, but 60 percent checkout from the favorite is terrifying.
Luke Humphries being absent from each statistical category at this time. Going into the World Championship, van Gerwen and Humphries were neck-and-neck as the two favorites to win this year’s title. The 28-year-old Humphries has had an incredible 2023 campaign, taking down televised PDC titles at the World Grand Prix, the Grand Slam of Darts and the Players Championship Finals. At this stage in the world championship, Humphries is averaging 93.58, with 37.5 percent on checkouts. Expect these numbers to increase in Humphries’ next match or two. Otherwise, we may not see Cool Hand Luke advancing much further.
Raymond van Barneveld is turning back the clock, averaging nearly 100 and finding a 55 percent checkout percentage. Both stats are very good numbers for anyone on the PDC tour, but it is simply astonishing for the oldest remaining competitor in the field. RVB is a former world champion, so he knows what it takes to win this tournament. But we have not seen him in form in this good in maybe a decade. With opponents getting increasingly difficult along the way, we will see if Barney can continue to produce these high averages. If he can do so, I would expect to see him in the late, late stages of this tournament.
Round 3 Schedule
Wednesday, December 27Scott Williams vs. Martin SchindlerDave Chisnall vs. Gabriel ClemensRob Cross vs. Jeffrey de GraafMatt Campbell vs. Luke Littler
Michael van Gerwen vs. Madars Razma
Thursday, December 28Florian Hempel vs. Stephen BuntingJoe Cullen vs. Ryan SearleRoss Smith vs. Chris DobeyGerwyn Price vs. Brendan Dolan
Luke Humphries vs. Ricardo Pietreczko
Friday, December 29Damon Heta vs. Berry van PeerJonny Clayton vs. Krzysztof RatajskiJim Williams vs. Raymond van Barneveld
Boris Krcmar vs. Gary Anderson
Daily Expert Picks
In this section, I plan to make a daily prediction, beginning with the Round 3 matches, each day until we reach the finals on Jan. 3.
All odds from BetMGM. Lines do not update live. Always shop around for best odds.
Dec. 27 – Dave Chisnall (-165) vs. Gabriel Clemens
I am taking No. 11, Dave “Chizzy” Chisnall to get through No. 22 Gabriel “The German Giant” Clemens.
Clemens surprised many at this tournament last year, advancing to the semifinals, losing to ultimate world champion Michael “Bullyboy” Smith. It was a very impressive finish for the German player, but despite last year’s result, I have not been impressed with Clemens’ form this season. In his career, Clemens is the owner of zero televised titles, zero non-televised titles and zero nine-dart finishes. The German Giant does seem to find ways to win a match, or two, or three, at many PDC tournaments, but he always falls short of the ultimate victory.
Chisnall, on the other hand, is the owner of 22 non-televised PDC titles and one televised nine-dart finish. Chisnall has also been in very strong form late in the 2023 season, booking a ranking victory just last month at the Players Championship Finals. Just as Clemens reached the World Champion semifinal last year, Chisnall accomplished the same feat back in 2021.
Both Chisnall and Clemens are terrific PDC tour players, but I give the edge to Chisnall when it comes to experience on the big stage and scoring average. So long as Chisnall can find his doubles, averaging just under 32 percent through two tournament rounds, I expect Chisnall to advance through Clemens into Round 4.
Dec. 28 – Joe Cullen (+100) vs. Ryan Searle
A little surprised to see No. 14 Joe “Rockstar” Cullen posted as a slight underdog to No. 19 Ryan “Heavy Metal” Searle, but I am happy to lock in Cullen to get the win at plus odds.
Expecting a battle in this one, as both of these players have been in very good form with solid 2023 campaigns. But I am leaning towards Cullen for two reasons. In five PDC tour matches, Cullen holds a 3-2 series head-to-head record against Searle. In Searle’s two victories over Cullen, though, Searle has squeaked out a pair of 6-5 wins. In Cullen’s three victories, Rockstar has won 6-5, 6-4, and 6-2 over Searle. I do not see Searle running away with this match; either Cullen finds a fairly smooth path to victory, or the two are engulfed in a nail-bitingly close match that could go either way.
The other reason is Cullen’s experience, especially recently, in televised darts matches. Cullen has one major title, taking down the 2022 PDC Darts Masters. Searle has zero major title victories. Searle’s best finish at a major is the last 16, a finish he achieved at the 2022 PDC Darts Masters that was won by Cullen.
Cullen also finished as runner-up in the 2022 Premier League of Darts, missing one match dart that would have won the entire Premier League that year. He ultimately lost to Michael van Gerwen in an incredible finals match. Searle has never been invited to the Premier League, and really lacks much experience when it comes to the pressure of televised darts performances.
The bottom line is that I expect a tight match here, with two absolute dogs going to battle to advance to the final 16 of the world championship. I think Cullen has the edge in this one, and I love locking him in at (+100).
