2023 PFL 1 Predictions 👊 MMA Odds & Picks (Apr 1)

• The first event of the 2023 PFL is on the program this Saturday.
• Brendan Loughnane vs. Marlon Moraes is the main event of the evening.
• Thiago Santos making his PFL debut in the co-main event against Rob Wilkinson.

A new season of the Professional Fighters League starts on Saturday, April 1, when Light Heavyweight and Featherweight fighters start their battle for the $1 million prize in their respective tournaments.

We’re going to see some real MMA legends fight this evening, including Marlon Moraes who’s fighting the reigning PFL Lightweight champ Brendan Loughnane in the headliner. Then, there’s Thiago Santos taking on Rob Wilkinson in the co-main event, along with another three interesting main card fights.

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Schedule and How to Watch

• Where: The Theater at Virgin Hotels, Las Vegas, Nevada
• When: Saturday, April 1, at 10 p.m ET
• How to Watch: ESPN/ESPN+

2023 PFL 1 Predictions

Brendan Loughnane vs. Marlon Moraes

Marlon Moraes is a former UFC title challenger who was once touted as the next big thing in the mixed martial arts universe. Unfortunately for him, everything went downhill after he lost the title fight to Henry Cejudo in June 2019. He lost by TKO in round 3 despite winning the first two rounds.

Moraes did bounce back with a win (split decision) over Jose Aldo the same year, but starting with 2020, he’s been in abysmal form. He lost four fights in the UFC, each by KO/TKO, which prompted him to move to the PFL, where he was supposed to have an easier job.

Unfortunately for Moraes, his bad luck continued and he suffered another TKO loss in his first PFL fight. More bad news is that his second fight is against the reigning PFL featherweight champion Brendan Loughnane whose knockout rate is 53.84%.

Prediction:

Rob Wilkinson vs. Thiago Santos

Similarly to Moraes, Thiago Santos too is trying to put an end to a horrible streak. The former UFC Light Heavyweight challenger is 1-5 in his last six fights, but unlike Moraes, we think Santos’ disappointing run will end at PFL 1. It’s because most of his losses happened against true legends of the sport. In the title fight, he lost to Jon Jones by a split decision.

After that, he lost to Glover Teixeira who later went on to become the champion of the 205lb division. He also lost to Aleksandar Rakic, Magomed Ankalaev, and Jamahal Hill (the current UFC champ), all of whom are on a whole different level from Rob Wilkinson.

Sure, one may argue that the title-challenging Santos isn’t the same fighter as the one going into the cage on Saturday. He’s been struggling with his knees over the last couple of years – Jon Jones destroyed them with leg kicks – but we think he’s going to do alight.

Sure, beating the reigning PFL Light Heavyweight champ won’t be easy, but if someone can beat Wilkinson, it’s Santos.

Prediction:

Krzysztof Jotko vs. Will Fleury

Krzysztof Jotko is a former UFC fighter who got a shot at the $1 million prize in the PFL Light Heavyweight tournament in 2023 after Omari Akhmetov got injured. With just over a month to prepare for the fight, Jotko might not have an easy job on Saturday.

Oddsmakers, however, see him as a huge favorite, but we think a surprise might happen. The thing is that his opponent Will Fleury is a technical fighter with a real engine on him, meaning that he can take this fight to the distance. And who knows, he might just land enough significant strikes to win over the judges.

Prediction:

Movlid Khaybulaev vs. Ryoji Kudo

Khabib’s childhood friend Movlid Khaybulaev is fighting his first professional fight since October 2021 when he won the 2021 PFL Featherweight Tournament, beating Chris Wade in the final. On the road to the title, he defeated Brendan Loughnane, who later went on to win the 2022 tournament.

Khaybulaev is still undefeated, and we don’t think Ryoji Kudo is going to change that. The Dagestani fighter is getting his 11 career win this Saturday.

Prediction:

Chris Wade vs. Bubba Jenkins

This is the fight that kicks off the PFL 1 main card action, and we think it’s going to be one of the best fights of the evening. Both fighters have great stamina, throwing a lot of strikes in every fight. That was the case in their first duel two years ago, which saw Wade win by unanimous decision.

We think this one can go either way and with Bubba Jenkins’ odds being +150, we think he’s a very good bet.

Prediction:

Annie AdkinsAnnie is a seasoned veteran in sports betting and has been working in the industry for over 7 years. Her goal of educating others and sharing her knowledge on the topic has brought her to VegasOdds.com where she regularly contributes to our cornerstone guides and news to help readers improve their sports betting game. If you don’t find her writing, you can bet she’ll be studying sports stats!