2023 Ryder Cup predictions: Long shot bets for US vs. Europe

After pairings for Friday foursomes were announced on Thursday for the 2023 Ryder Cup, betting value has emerged on Rickie Fowler to be the Top American Wildcard at +500.

The golfers in this market are:

• Collin Morikawa +250
• Brooks Koepka +333
• Rickie Fowler +500
• Sam Burns +500
• Justin Thomas +550
• Jordan Spieth +600

Among these six golfers, three aren’t playing in Friday foursomes (Koepka, Thomas and Spieth), while Morikawa, Burns and Fowler will all compete.

Burns is paired with his close friend Scottie Scheffler as a short underdog to Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton, but Morikawa and Fowler are short favorites against Shane Lowry and Sepp Straka (the lone American pair favored in foursomes).

My favorite bet among the foursomes is on Morikawa and Fowler to defeat Lowry and Straka (-125 at bet365 with a tie as a no bet) because Lowry and Straka not only have the lowest ceiling among all eight foursomes pairings, but they also have the lowest floor.

Morikawa and Fowler have a significant edge on approach play in this matchup, and overall they are simply better golfers.

I expect them to get a full point, and I lean toward the Rahm/Hatton duo winning a point over Scheffler/Burns in Friday foursomes as well.

I think Burns would’ve been a better fit in four-ball (also known as best ball) competition, and if he and Scheffler don’t deliver a full point on Friday morning, I’m not sure how much Burns plays again before singles matches on Sunday.

Additionally, Burns, who has excelled on parkland golf courses in the United States, is not an ideal fit at Marco Simone Golf & Country Club.

Burns also won the PGA Tour’s Dell Technologies Match Play earlier this year, but Austin Country Club, with its fairways that are the size of Texas, shares few commonalities with Marco Simone.

With Koepka sitting on Friday morning, it could be a sign that he sees limited action this week. Koepka is also an alpha whose chemistry with other United States golfers isn’t ideal, in addition to him being the only LIV golfer.

Spieth and Thomas both have upside, but they also have significant concerns thanks to their driving accuracy (or lack thereof) and putting.

Since I have doubts about the other four players in this market, Morikawa and Fowler are the two possible options among these six American Wildcards, but Fowler at +500 is twice the price of Morikawa at +250.

If Morikawa and Fowler continue to play together, then we’d need Fowler to win (or tie) his Sunday singles match while Morikawa loses or ties his match to cash this bet.

There’s also a possibility that Morikawa teams up with Max Homa in the four-balls sessions, but Fowler also is a possible pair for a handful of Americans, especially if he starts out strong with the flatstick.

Fowler is a significantly better putter than Morikawa and also has a better short game than his foursomes partner.

Because of this, I trust Fowler more in singles, so I’m betting him at +500 for Top American Wildcard, and I’d bet him down to +450.

2023 Ryder Cup Longshot Bet

Rickie Fowler to be the Top American Wildcard (+500 at bet365)