2024 Food City 500 prediction, betting odds, picks

Nola

16 March 2024

Bristol Motor Speedway will host the NASCAR Cup Series this Sunday in its traditional setting, as the Food City 500 will return to the concrete surface after being a dirt race for the past three years.

The 0.5-mile Bristol is one of the more challenging tracks considering one small mistake can cause a driver to go several laps down, which makes it tough for bettors as well considering even the most talented Cup drivers struggle with consistency at this track.

Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell are the favorites to win, and I’ve got one of them among my best bets this week, which include my pick to win, my top three pick, top five picks and to top 10 picks.

FOOD CITY 500 BEST BETS

Best bets to finish top 10- Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota (+165 at BetMGM) Carson Hocevar, No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet (+300 at Caesars)

Jones hasn’t run up front much at Bristol recently, but he did at times while with Joe Gibbs Racing. Jones will be driving for a Toyota team for the first time since then, so there appears to be a solid chance that the talented driver rediscovers his past success and cracks the top 10.

Hocevar is off to a strong start in his rookie season with Spire Motorsports, and he nearly cracked the top 10 at Bristol last year in his first Cup start at the track. Hocevar also ran well at Bristol in the Truck Series, so he makes for a sneaky top 10 play as a young driver with momentum.

Best bets to finish top five- William Byron, No. 24 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (+240 at BetMGM); Chris Buescher, No. 17 RFK Racing Ford (+240 at BetMGM)

Byron's gotten outshined Bristol by teammates Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott at Bristol, but that doesn't mean the former isn't capable of running up front. Byron's one of the best at short tracks and is in line to bounce back with the Hendrick cars having been stronger at Bristol than Phoenix as of late.

Buescher has evolved into one the Cup Series’ better short track racers, and he’s run up front at Bristol the past two seasons and is coming off a strong second-place finish last week. The RFK cars seem to have figured out the new short track package, so Buescher should run well at Bristol again.

Best bet to finish top three- Brad Keselowski, No. 6 RFK Racing Ford (+450 at DraftKings)

Speaking of RFK, the owner-driver Keselowski is still looking for his first win with his new team, and this could be the weekend he breaks through as a three-time Bristol winner. Keselowski led laps in the 2023 Bristol fall race, and 4-to-1 to finish top three feels like a value for the former Cup champion considering how much improvement his team has shown over the past year.

Pick to win- Christopher Bell, No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (+550 at DraftKings)

I normally don’t pick a driver to win back-to-back races, but I’m going to make an exception this week for Bell. Bristol is one of Bell’s better tracks even though he’s never won on the concrete surface, as he’s led over 100 laps in the last two fall races, and I see him breaking through to victory lane this week since he and his Joe Gibbs Racing teammates have shown elite speed early on this season.