2024 MLB Season Preview: Milwaukee Brewers

It was an inauspicious start to the off-season for the Milwaukee Brewers when long-time manager — and former player — Craig Counsell departed Wisconsin for Wrigley Field and the division rival Chicago Cubs.

Having spent part of six of his 16 season as a big-league infielder with the Brewers, the graduate of Wisconsin’s Whitefish Bay High School stayed in-state when he joined Milwaukee’s Front Office, and later the team’s broadcasting crew, before being named the replacement for then-manager Ron Roenicke early in the 2015 season.

In nine seasons at the helm of the Brew Crew, Counsell led the team to 707 wins and a .531 winning percentage during the regular season. That success led to five post-season appearances, although the team reached the NLCS just once during his tenure (2018).

Replacing Counsell for the 2024 season is long-time Brewers assistant coach Pat Murphy. Murphy joined Counsell’s staff as bench coach in 2016 after a run as the San Diego Padres’ interim manager in 2015. The 65-year-old Murphy brings two decades of managerial experience from the college ranks with him to his first full-time managerial position in MLB. He led Notre Dame’s baseball team from 1989 through 1994 and then spent 1995 through 2009 as the skipper for Arizona State.

It was a move of continuity by current head honcho Matt Arnold, who himself took over from the now-departed David Stearns as Milwaukee’s head of baseball operations for the 2023 season.

Where were they in 2023?

Milwaukee won the NL Central in 2023, notching 92 wins and finishing nine games ahead of the second-place Cubs. It wasn’t an unexpected outcome; though projections had the eventual last-place-finishing Cardinals as most likely to win the NL Central last year, the Brewers were still forecast for a central estimate of 86 wins and playoff odds north of 50 percent.

Despite making the playoffs for the fifth time in their last six seasons, they were summarily swept in the Wild Card Series by the eventual NL champion Arizona Diamondbacks. Still, it was a more than fine season given their 90-plus wins, a draw of more than 2.5 million fans, and a Team Gold Glove for their overage performance on defense.

Offensively, they were led by former Atlanta Braves catcher William Contreras and left fielder Christian Yelich who posted an wRC+ of 124 and 122, respectively. The downside was that the team didn’t roster another player with a 100+ wRC+ who appeared in more than 20 games, outside of mid-season pick-ups Carlos Santana and Mark Canha, neither of whom remained with the organization after last season. Instead, this ended up being a pretty terrible offensive team (24th in MLB in wRC+) that nonetheless managed average position player production overall due to MLB’s best defensive play.

Contreras had a defensive breakout en route to a 5.4 fWAR season, and Adames also racked up tons of defensive value. They had five other players who added around half a win or more of defensive value, as well.

Sal Frelick, the organization’s 2021 first round draft choice, made his MLB debut against Atlanta, going 3-for-3 on July 22, and proceeded to pick-up six hits and three walks in five contests against the Braves. The outfielder ended his season with a 92 wRC+ but looks to be part of the team’s future... but kind of like the 2023 Brewers as a whole, he needs to figure the hitting thing out.

The team suffered through a number of injuries - and between that and under performance - the offense was so lacking that the following list of players saw action in more than 10 games for the Brewers last season: Darin Ruf, Jon Singleton, Josh Donaldson and Luke Voit.

Defensively, the team was outstanding, which helped their pitching staff remain a strong point for the organization.

Leading the pitching staff was former NL Cy Young Award winner Corbin Burnes who started 32 games and compiled 3.4 fWAR. Freddy Peralta was maybe even better on a rate basis with 3.0 fWAR in 30 starts, but “Fastball Freddy” provided a lot less bulk than Burnes (165 ⁄₃ innings to Burnes’ 193 ⁄₃). After that, though, the team was a bit beat up in the rotation. Wade Miley, Colin Rea, and Adrian Houser all appeared in 25ish games and pitched reasonably, but the team also leveraged five other starters, including at one point turning to former long-time Brave Julio Teheran, who was released by the Padres in late May. Teheran ended up starting more than 10 games in a season at the MLB-level for the first time since 2019 when he started 11 games for Milwaukee before he was sidelined by injuries.

Brandon Woodruff was also lost to injury and made only 11 starts, though he rocked 1.4 fWAR in the process. The team also lost projected fifth starter Aaron Ashby before the start of the regular season.

The bullpen was anchored by Devin Williams, who again had an elite relief season. Joel Payamps and Hoby Milner were also awesome in relief, while the Brewers got a bunch of other useful relief performances from guys like Trevor Megill, Elvis Peguero, and Abner Uribe. This wasn’t a dominant pitching staff due to the injuries, but it still finished in MLB’s top half.

It’s perhaps worth noting that the Brewers massively outplayed their BaseRuns in 2023 (+7 wins), which makes sense given that the production was more middling than good across the board, but that season is over and they’ll have a chance to produce more solidly in 2024.

What did they do in the offseason?

Well, they traded Burnes. That was the big headline grabber, as they dealt the free-agent-to-be to the Baltimore Orioles for pitcher DL Hall and infielder Joey Ortiz.

On the mound, they also re-signed Woodruff to a two-year deal, although he’s not expected back at full strength until next year. They also brough back Miley and Rea while also picking up a number of depth pieces, including Rob Zastryzny, Jakob Junis and Joe Ross.

As far a position players go, speculation floated about that the team might look to move Adames after picking up Ortiz from Baltimore. The team did sign catcher/designated hitter Gary Sanchez to a deal last week to back up Contreras and be another option at DH for a team lacking for power.

The big move Milwaukee made to address their offensive production was signing former Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Rhys Hoskins to a one-year deal with two mutual option years. Hoskins, who missed all of last season due to injury, brings a resume of hitting 27 or more home runs in each of the last four full seasons that he has played while fielding a career 126 wRC+.

A return to form for Hoskins would be a boon for both the player and the team who needs more offense to offset a likely step-back by the team’s starting rotation.

Where are they hoping to go?

Back to the playoffs. That’s been the expectation for the Brewers for the last decade, and they’ve had three 90-win seasons in their last five tries, including both a 96-win and 95-win campaign mixed in there. Luckily for Milwaukee, the Dodgers, Braves and Phillies all play in other divisions and on the surface, the Cubs, Reds, Pirates and Cardinals don’t appear to be positioned to run away with the division crown in 2024. However, neither do the Brewers — with a new manager and a starting rotation without Burnes and Woodruff, the Brewers will have an uphill battle to win the division again this year, much less stay in that lead position anywhere near the 135 days they did in 2023. They’re currently projected as an average-y, 81-win team that has about a 1-in-3 shot of making the playoffs. Both the Cubs and Cardinals currently have better projections, albeit not that much better. The Brewers do look to have a top ten pitching staff this coming year, but the position player group is pretty unremarkable as a whole. They’ll lean heavily on Contreras, Adames, and their bullpen while hoping that Hoskins, Brice Turang, Ortiz, and top prospect Jackson Chourio can take steps forward and give them another division crown.

Looking to find cost stability, the team actually signed Chourio, to an eight-year, $82M contract that includes two team options.

Although Chourio has yet to make his debut with the big-league club, the Brewers obviously believe in the outfielder’s talent which has him ranked by MLB as the second overall prospect and top outfield prospect and third overall (second as an outfielder) in FanGraphs’ rankings. Still, he didn’t exactly dominate Double-A, so it remains to be seen whether he can really bolster what could be an underwhelming offensive unit.

Braves 2023 head-to-head

Atlanta won five of six games against Milwaukee last season. The two teams squared up six times in 10 days in late July with the Braves taking two of three in Milwaukee. Michael Soroka pitched and emerged victorious in the series opener, and the Braves stunned the Brewers to take the series in the rubber game when Ozzie Albies hit a three-run homer when down by a run off Elvis Peguero in the eighth.

Five days later, the two teams wrapped their season series with the Braves sweeping the Brewers in Atlanta by clobbering Milwaukee pitching to the tune of 29 runs in the three games.

Elder made two starts across the two series, and faced former Brave Teheran both times. Teheran was awesome in the first matchup, allowing just a solo homer with a 5/0 K/BB ratio in six innings, while Elder was more pedestrian with a 2/2 K/BB ratio and a homer allowed in six frames. But, in the second game, the Braves obliterated Teheran with three homers in five innings despite a 4/0 K/BB ratio; meanwhile, Elder pitched seven frames with a 3/0 K/BB ratio. Teheran would go on the Injured List after that start and not return until almost two months later.

In 2024, the two MLB teams to have called Milwaukee home will play three games in Milwaukee from July 29 through July 31 and will conclude their regular season series a week later, with a three-game set in Atlanta from August 6 through August 8.