2024 Pennzoil 400 betting odds, prediction, picks

Nola

02 March 2024

NASCAR is heading west to Las Vegas Motor Speedway for the Pennzoil 400, which will be the third race of what’s been an exciting Cup Series season so far.

Hendrick Motorsports drivers have dominated at this 1.5-mile intermediate track recently, but the odds indicate that there are several other drivers who could step up and snap Hendrick’s run of winning.

Below are my best bets for this weekend’s race, which include a pick to win, a top three pick, two top five picks, two top 10 picks and a longshot pick to win.

PENNZOIL 400 BEST BETS

Best bet to finish top 10- Alex Bowman, No. 48 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (-115 at BetMGM) Ty Gibbs, No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (+100 at DraftKings)

Bowman gets slept on by many since he's considered the fourth-best driver on a four-car Hendrick Motorsports team, but he's proven to be a threat to win here at Las Vegas. Bowman won the 2022 spring race and ran up front last season as well to where he's a solid bet to score a top 10 even if he isn't quite as fast as his Hendrick teammates.

Gibbs had speed but struggled to finish races at Las Vegas last season, but he had success in the Xfinity Series having won a race here and should have a better understanding of the track now that he's got a year of Cup experience under his belt. A top 10 is well within reach if Gibbs can keep his car in one piece.

Best bets to finish top five- Joey Logano, No. 22 Team Penske Ford (+225 at BetMGM; Chase Elliott, No. 9 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (+230 at DraftKings)

Logano is a two-winner Las Vegas winner and carries the Pennzoil namesake on his hood to where he's usually always a threat to win this race. The Ford teams weren't as fast as the Chevrolets and Toyotas at intermediate tracks last season, but they worked to improve that this offseason, and Logano is in need of a strong finish after two-straight DNFs.

Elliott has yet to win at Las Vegas, but he's run well here in the past and has flashed the elite speed that it takes to win at a track that tends to reward the fastest cars. Elliott's winless streak is approaching 50 races, but he should be able to record a top five even if he can't quite snap that streak.

Best bet to finish top three- Denny Hamlin, No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota (+310 at BetMGM)

Hamlin's only got one Las Vegas victory despite so many laps led here over the years, but it's clear that he knows what it takes to run up front and stay there. A top three finish feels like a strong bet for Hamlin considering he's in need of a strong run after a tough start, and he appears to have the best chance of any driver that isn't in Hendrick Motorsports equipment.

Pick to win- Kyle Larson, No. 5 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet (+450 at DraftKings)

Picking a winner here at Las Vegas feels like a much easier task than Daytona and Atlanta, and I'm going with Larson even though I normally avoid picking the overall favorite. It's rare that one driver dominates at a track like the way Larson has here since joining Hendrick Motorsports, and he should have the fastest car again to where another victory seems likely unless bad luck strikes.

Longshot pick to win- Erik Jones, No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota (+6000 at BetMGM)

It's a stretch to take an outright longshot at a track that the favorites almost always win at, but Jones is someone that's snuck up on the big teams before and tends to run well at intermediate tracks. Legacy Motor Club should have more speed this season to where the talented Jones could be a threat to steal the win, especially if fuel mileage becomes a factor.