23 Red Sox predictions for 2023: Chris Sale gets Cy Young votes, Nick Pivetta traded & more

BOSTON -- Baseball season is here. The Red Sox will open their 2023 campaign with a matinee matchup against the Orioles at Fenway Park on Thursday.

Earlier this week, we published our staff predictions for the season, including World Series and award winners and how the Red Sox will fare in a stacked AL East. Now it’s time for a different kind of look into the future. Here are my 23 predictions for the 23 Red Sox:

1. The Red Sox go 81-81. This is a middling group that could go either way and so I’ll take the ultimate cop-out here and say they finish at .500. Too many question marks. Too many things that have to break right. They will be interesting and probably likable. But there’s no reason to think they will be at the top of the pack in the American League.

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2. Chris Sale gets Cy Young votes. I’m super bullish on Sale, who looked good during the spring and, most important, remained healthy. Do I think he’s a 30-start, 200-inning guy at this point in his career? No. But there’s no one in the game more determined to prove people wrong this season. Give me 14 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA.

3. Triston Casas wins AL Rookie of the Year. Masataka Yoshida has better odds, according to the sportsbooks, but Casas has what it takes to deliver on the biggest stage. His at-bats are so good that the Red Sox are considering hitting him leadoff after just 27 big league games. He’s confident in himself… but for good reason.

4. The rotation fails to stay healthy. While I actually think Sale has a good chance to have a great season, there are too many question marks when it comes to the others (Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck). I don’t fault the Red Sox for thinking they had depth heading into spring training. But this is a group that has not proven durable in recent years. Rotation health will end up costing the Red Sox significantly.

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5. Rafael Devers regresses. I think David Ortiz’s comments about Devers not having enough protection are perfectly valid. Sure, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida and Adam Duvall are good offensive players. But they don’t stack up to Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, who were the featured pieces of Boston’s offense for the last couple years. Devers’ year won’t be bad. It’ll just be a little worse than 2022.

6. The drop-off between Xander Bogaerts and Kiké Hernández as the starting shortstop is even more stark than people think. Bogaerts is one of the very best players in baseball. Hernández has shown he’s a big-game player in flashes but isn’t close to what Bogaerts was. It’s interesting that Alex Cora has been hitting Hernández ninth in the late part of spring training. To think he’ll be anything close to Bogaerts is a mistake.

7. Trevor Story returns on the first day of the second half. For some reason, the Red Sox won’t give any sort of timetable on Story’s potential return. But he won’t be out for the entire season or anything close to that. Expect him back in the second half. I’ll take the early part of that window right now.

8. One of the veteran relievers acquired over the winter gets DFA’d. I don’t think Kenley Jansen is about to fall off a cliff but this is a group that is pretty old and did not pitch well in spring training. Jansen, Chris Martin, Joely Rodríguez and Richard Bleier are important pieces of a new-look bullpen. While most will be good, someone will struggle mightily.

9. Jorge Alfaro plays a sizable role in the middle of the season. Alfaro played well in camp but was the victim of roster logistics as the Red Sox were able to keep both him and Connor Wong to preserve depth. Injuries or struggles could vault Alfaro into the majors and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a spark plug at some point over the summer. The personality, the hair, the power. This story writes itself.

10. Nick Pivetta is demoted to the bullpen, becomes disgruntled, and is traded for another piece at some point before the trade deadline. If the rotation is at full strength, Pivetta likely won’t crack the starting five. His arsenal would likely work well in relief and his intensity would play in that role. Publicly and privately, Pivetta has bristled about the idea of moving to the bullpen at any point this season. He likely won’t be happy if it happens.

11. Bryan Mata comes up and pitches well before June 1. The Red Sox think he’s pretty close to being able to contribute in the majors but had some more experienced pitchers (Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski) ahead of him on the depth chart to start the year. The organization wants to stop using its top young pitchers as relievers, so Mata still projects as a long-term starter. But it’s possible he spends a season in a relief role to get his feet wet then transitions in the future. The organization is very high on Mata after a strong spring training.

12. Adam Duvall is traded in late July. Duvall is perfectly suited for Fenway Park and should mash a lot of homers at home. He’s also seen as a strong defender who the Red Sox are challenging to play center field. Faced with the reality of being mediocre at the deadline once again, the Sox will have to deal away some rental players. Duvall would draw interest if they do.

13. Masataka Yoshida takes over the leadoff spot before May 15. It’s unclear exactly what changed between January, when the Red Sox loudly proclaimed that they viewed Yoshida as the leadoff hitter, and March, when they acted like they never said it. But it’s clear they don’t think it’s the best spot in the lineup for Yoshida as he acclimates to the majors. If Alex Verdugo struggles in the leadoff spot early, Cora may pivot to Yoshida sooner rather than later.

14. James Paxton makes fewer than 10 starts. This is not particularly a bold one because of how little Paxton has thrown in the last couple of years. But the injuries that have piled up (lat tear, hamstring strain) since he was fully recovered from Tommy John surgery suggest his mechanics are out of whack. Take the under on Paxton.

15. Ryan Brasier and Kaleb Ort are both off the roster by May 1. The Red Sox are going to have a short leash with both of these guys and believe they have some capable relievers who have options (Zack Kelly, Wyatt Mills, others). Just because they’ve stuck with both Brasier and Ort on the roster this long doesn’t mean their spots are safe if they struggle.

16. Chaim Bloom scours the market for infield depth early in the season. With Story out months and Adalberto Mondesí not progressing like the club would have hoped, the Red Sox are really thin on infield depth. Yu Chang is the top backup option with Bobby Dalbec, somehow, serving as the next in line at shortstop if a need arises. Bloom is likely looking to add more options in the coming weeks. He could look at the waiver wire or try to make a small trade to do so.

17. The struggles against the AL East continue. The Sox will play fewer games against divisional opponents this season (52 instead of 76), which is helpful in a stacked East. But the struggles will continue. I have Boston under .500 against the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays.

18. Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran are both traded. Even on an incomplete roster, both Dalbec and Duran failed to make the team to start the season. It’s somewhat telling that they’re both starting at Triple-A, even after good springs. A change of scenery would be best for both players. The question, of course, is whether either of them have enough value to cut into Boston’s depth by moving them.

19. Fenway Park attendance becomes a real issue as the summer begins. If the Red Sox aren’t good out of the gate, fans are not going to be paying much attention. Add that to the fact the Celtics and Bruins are poised for deep playoff runs and the Red Sox may have a relevance issue. If those teams are competing for championships in June, don’t be surprised to see some empty seats at Fenway.

20. Only two AL East teams make the postseason. I’m not a believer in the Rays this year. Give me the Blue Jays as the East winner and the Yankees as a wild card team.

21. The Red Sox, in a bad year, still acquire a controllable, good player at the trade deadline. I think the Sox will sell at the deadline but they will also be opportunistic about adding a big name who is under control. It’s something Chaim Bloom wants to do but has not been able to do yet during his tenure. This might be the year for it.

22. Alex Cora and Chaim Bloom both feel the heat by August but ultimately save their jobs. This is a conversation for a much longer forum but the guess here is that both men survive, even if the Sox have a down year. Bloom is on more tenuous ground than Cora, who is beloved by ownership.

23. The Red Sox are awarded a future All-Star Game. There’s a major organizational push to get this done and I think it’ll happen. Keep an eye on 2027. Talks are ongoing between the organization, the city of Boston and the league office.