Revisiting 2023 Red Sox predictions from good (Kiké) to bad (Chris Sale)
Earlier this month, I published my list of 24 predictions for the 2024 Red Sox. Some, like my theory that the club would abandon the Town Hall format and not take questions directly from fans at Winter Weekend, will come true. Others won’t. That’s what’s fun about the predictions game.
With this being a slow news week and spring training rapidly approaching, I decided now’s a good time to take a look back at my predictions for the 2023 Red Sox to see how I did. I marked myself correct, incorrect or half-correct on each with my final score at the end. Yes, I’m a generous grader.
Here’s how I did:
1. The Red Sox go 81-81. This is a middling group that could go either way and so I’ll take the ultimate cop-out here and say they finish at .500. Too many question marks. Too many things that have to break right. They will be interesting and probably likable. But there’s no reason to think they will be at the top of the pack in the American League.
VERDICT: HALF-CORRECT. I didn’t peg the exact win-loss record of 78-84 but the 2023 Red Sox were as middling as a team can be and hovered around .500 for the entire seasons. And they weren’t close to the top of the pack in the AL. (0-0-1)
2. Chris Sale gets Cy Young votes. I’m super bullish on Sale, who looked good during the spring and, most important, remained healthy. Do I think he’s a 30-start, 200-inning guy at this point in his career? No. But there’s no one in the game more determined to prove people wrong this season. Give me 14 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. Sale missed two months with a shoulder injury and did not receive a single Cy Young vote. He won six games and had a 4.30 ERA in 20 starts. It wasn’t a horrible season but not nearly as good as the one I predicted. (0-1-1)
3. Triston Casas wins AL Rookie of the Year. Masataka Yoshida has better odds, according to the sportsbooks, but Casas has what it takes to deliver on the biggest stage. His at-bats are so good that the Red Sox are considering hitting him leadoff after just 27 big league games. He’s confident in himself… but for good reason.
VERDICT: HALF-CORRECT.I’ll be generous and give myself a half-point here because Casas did receive Rookie of the Year votes (he finished third) and finished above Yoshida as I expected. He did have a fantastic rookie season as I expected. (0-1-2)
4. The rotation fails to stay healthy. While I actually think Sale has a good chance to have a great season, there are too many question marks when it comes to the others (Corey Kluber, James Paxton, Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck). I don’t fault the Red Sox for thinking they had depth heading into spring training. But this is a group that has not proven durable in recent years. Rotation health will end up costing the Red Sox significantly.
VERDICT: CORRECT.This was spot-on. Sale, Kluber, Paxton, Bello, Whitlock and Houck all spent time on the injured list, leaving the Red Sox using openers for 60% of their games midway through the season. It’s never fun to predict injuries but it was easy to see those issues coming. (1-1-2)
5. Rafael Devers regresses. I think David Ortiz’s comments about Devers not having enough protection are perfectly valid. Sure, Justin Turner, Masataka Yoshida and Adam Duvall are good offensive players. But they don’t stack up to Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, who were the featured pieces of Boston’s offense for the last couple years. Devers’ year won’t be bad. It’ll just be a little worse than 2022.
VERDICT: CORRECT.I’ve repeatedly said Devers strong season (.295/33 HR/100 RBI/.851 OPS) looks better on Baseball Reference than it did in real life. It shows that his floor is exceedingly high, even when things aren’t fully clicking. But overall, the year was a tick down from his 2022 showing, especially on the defensive side of things, where he had 19 errors. It was by no means a bad season. (2-1-2)
6. The drop-off between Xander Bogaerts and Kiké Hernández as the starting shortstop is even more stark than people think. Bogaerts is one of the very best players in baseball. Hernández has shown he’s a big-game player in flashes but isn’t close to what Bogaerts was. It’s interesting that Alex Cora has been hitting Hernández ninth in the late part of spring training. To think he’ll be anything close to Bogaerts is a mistake.
VERDICT: CORRECT.This was like beyond correct. Hernández was horrendous defensively (when it came to throwing errors) and was moved off shortstop before being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. He also couldn’t hit during the first half of the season and consistently had one of the lowest WARs among all players. Bogaerts was going to be missed no matter what but Hernández’s struggled made things worse. (3-1-2)
7. Trevor Story returns on the first day of the second half. For some reason, the Red Sox won’t give any sort of timetable on Story’s potential return. But he won’t be out for the entire season or anything close to that. Expect him back in the second half. I’ll take the early part of that window right now.
VERDICT: INCORRECT.I did say Story would be back in the second half and not miss the whole season but that was obvious to anyone paying attention. My July 14 prediction was way off as Story made his season debut Aug. 8 — and it was still earlier than he had intended. (3-2-2)
8. One of the veteran relievers acquired over the winter gets DFA’d. I don’t think Kenley Jansen is about to fall off a cliff but this is a group that is pretty old and did not pitch well in spring training. Jansen, Chris Martin, Joely Rodríguez and Richard Bleier are important pieces of a new-look bullpen. While most will be good, someone will struggle mightily.
VERDICT: CORRECT.Both Bleier and Rodríguez were disasters from the left side and Bleier, who posted a 5.28 ERA in 27 games, was designated for assignment on Aug. 7. With both veterans contributing little, the Red Sox asked for a lot from Brennan Bernardino — and got it. (4-2-2)
9. Jorge Alfaro plays a sizable role in the middle of the season. Alfaro played well in camp but was the victim of roster logistics as the Red Sox were able to keep both him and Connor Wong to preserve depth. Injuries or struggles could vault Alfaro into the majors and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was a spark plug at some point over the summer. The personality, the hair, the power. This story writes itself.
VERDICT: INCORRECT.Alfaro did reach the majors with Boston, returning to the organization while Reese McGuire was hurt and serving as Connor Wong’s backup for a stretch. But his impact was non-existent. He hit .118 in eight games and was poor defensively. (4-3-2)
10. Nick Pivetta is demoted to the bullpen, becomes disgruntled, and is traded for another piece at some point before the trade deadline. If the rotation is at full strength, Pivetta likely won’t crack the starting five. His arsenal would likely work well in relief and his intensity would play in that role. Publicly and privately, Pivetta has bristled about the idea of moving to the bullpen at any point this season. He likely won’t be happy if it happens.
VERDICT: HALF-CORRECT. This is an action-packed, three-part prediction that honestly was a pretty good one. Half-credit because Pivetta was demoted to the bullpen and was disgruntled (remember when he snapped at me in Atlanta?). But to his credit, he eventually took it in stride and became a dominant reliever for a few months. (4-3-3)
11. Bryan Mata comes up and pitches well before June 1. The Red Sox think he’s pretty close to being able to contribute in the majors but had some more experienced pitchers (Kutter Crawford, Josh Winckowski) ahead of him on the depth chart to start the year. The organization wants to stop using its top young pitchers as relievers, so Mata still projects as a long-term starter. But it’s possible he spends a season in a relief role to get his feet wet then transitions in the future. The organization is very high on Mata after a strong spring training.
VERDICT: INCORRECT.This wasn’t even close. Mata got hurt again and never came close to pitching in the majors. The 2024 season will be a make-or-break year for the former top prospect, who is out of options. (4-4-3)
12. Adam Duvall is traded in late July. Duvall is perfectly suited for Fenway Park and should mash a lot of homers at home. He’s also seen as a strong defender who the Red Sox are challenging to play center field. Faced with the reality of being mediocre at the deadline once again, the Sox will have to deal away some rental players. Duvall would draw interest if they do.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. Nope. Didn’t happen. But it should have, as Chaim Bloom should have dealt Duvall and James Paxton instead of standing pat during a trade deadline that, at least in part, sealed his firing. (4-5-3)
13. Masataka Yoshida takes over the leadoff spot before May 15. It’s unclear exactly what changed between January, when the Red Sox loudly proclaimed that they viewed Yoshida as the leadoff hitter, and March, when they acted like they never said it. But it’s clear they don’t think it’s the best spot in the lineup for Yoshida as he acclimates to the majors. If Alex Verdugo struggles in the leadoff spot early, Cora may pivot to Yoshida sooner rather than later.
VERDICT: INCORRECT.Yoshida literally didn’t lead off once as a rookie. Alex Verdugo (79 games) and Jarren Duran (35 times) hit first most of the time. It’ll be interesting to see where Yoshida factors into the lineup this year. (4-6-3)
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VERDICT: INCORRECT.This is officially a cold streak. Paxton, who just signed with the Dodgers this week, made 19 starts and was excellent in the first half. Injuries limited him to 96 innings, but that total was more than I projected. (4-7-3)
15. Ryan Brasier and Kaleb Ort are both off the roster by May 1. The Red Sox are going to have a short leash with both of these guys and believe they have some capable relievers who have options (Zack Kelly, Wyatt Mills, others). Just because they’ve stuck with both Brasier and Ort on the roster this long doesn’t mean their spots are safe if they struggle.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. Nope, but they should have been! Brasier had an 8.36 ERA in April and still got six chances to pitch in May before being designated for assignment midway through the month (and then turning his career around with a brilliant second half in Los Angeles). Ort had a 7.30 ERA in April but kept his job all year (he’s now with the Marlins). It’s unfair I have to take the L here. (4-8-3)
16. Chaim Bloom scours the market for infield depth early in the season. With Story out months and Adalberto Mondesí not progressing like the club would have hoped, the Red Sox are really thin on infield depth. Yu Chang is the top backup option with Bobby Dalbec, somehow, serving as the next in line at shortstop if a need arises. Bloom is likely looking to add more options in the coming weeks. He could look at the waiver wire or try to make a small trade to do so.
VERDICT: CORRECT. This is correct not because the Red Sox made a major league trade but because they made the savvy move to acquire Pablo Reyes in a minor trade with Oakland in May. It counts, and Reyes was pretty good considering what was expected of him. I’ll admit something that is hard to: I had never heard of him before the trade. But he turned out to be a useful player who will likely have an Opening Day roster spot in 2024. (5-8-3)
17. The struggles against the AL East continue. The Sox will play fewer games against divisional opponents this season (52 instead of 76), which is helpful in a stacked East. But the struggles will continue. I have Boston under .500 against the Yankees, Blue Jays, Orioles and Rays.
VERDICT: CORRECT. The Red Sox were 24-28 against divisional opponents. They were also brutal in interleague play, going 20-26. (6-8-3)
18. Bobby Dalbec and Jarren Duran are both traded. Even on an incomplete roster, both Dalbec and Duran failed to make the team to start the season. It’s somewhat telling that they’re both starting at Triple-A, even after good springs. A change of scenery would be best for both players. The question, of course, is whether either of them have enough value to cut into Boston’s depth by moving them.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. It’s January 2024 and both players are still in the organization. Couldn’t have seen that coming. The Red Sox are glad they didn’t move Duran, who took a major step forward with a breakout year and was one of their better players for most of the summer. The same can’t be said about Dalbec who clearly wants out. It’s a mystery why he’s still here. (6-9-3)
19. Fenway Park attendance becomes a real issue as the summer begins. If the Red Sox aren’t good out of the gate, fans are not going to be paying much attention. Add that to the fact the Celtics and Bruins are poised for deep playoff runs and the Red Sox may have a relevance issue. If those teams are competing for championships in June, don’t be surprised to see some empty seats at Fenway.
VERDICT: CORRECT. Attendance was down for the entire season and anyone who went frequently could tell. Things bottomed out in September (for now). Let’s see what a disappointing offseason (and horrendous messaging) does to attendance numbers in 2024 (7-9-3)
20. Only two AL East teams make the postseason. I’m not a believer in the Rays this year. Give me the Blue Jays as the East winner and the Yankees as a wild card team.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. Shoot me for not envisioning the Orioles winning 101 games. I had the wrong number of teams and the wrong representatives from the division (7-10-3)
21. The Red Sox, in a bad year, still acquire a controllable, good player at the trade deadline. I think the Sox will sell at the deadline but they will also be opportunistic about adding a big name who is under control. It’s something Chaim Bloom wants to do but has not been able to do yet during his tenure. This might be the year for it.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. Luis Urías was a nice guy but he doesn’t count. I continue to be struck by how the Red Sox haven’t made a deadline buy trade for anything other than a rental in many, many years. (7-11-3)
22. Alex Cora and Chaim Bloom both feel the heat by August but ultimately save their jobs. This is a conversation for a much longer forum but the guess here is that both men survive, even if the Sox have a down year. Bloom is on more tenuous ground than Cora, who is beloved by ownership.
VERDICT: HALF-CORRECT. Heat? Yes. Jobs saved? Yes in the case of Cora and no in the case of Bloom. Ultimately this was on the right track but Cora is back, so only half-credit. (7-11-4)
23. The Red Sox are awarded a future All-Star Game. There’s a major organizational push to get this done and I think it’ll happen. Keep an eye on 2027. Talks are ongoing between the organization, the city of Boston and the league office.
VERDICT: INCORRECT. This hasn’t happened yet and it seems like the timetable has been pushed back, with Sam Kennedy telling us in October that 2029 and 2030 are two potential target dates because of the ongoing Fenway Corners construction project around the ballpark. (7-12-4)
