3 'Locks' For The NBA Wednesday Include All Home Teams
I got a desperately needed bounce-back performance Tuesday, winning both of my NBA best bets. The New York Knicks continue to dominate this month. They improved to an NBA-best 14-2 in January after throat-punching the Charlotte Hornets 118-103 yesterday.
LISTEN: OutKick Bets Podcast's NBA Betting Show for Jan. 31st featuring David Troy
Then Steph Curry erupted on the Philadelphia 76ers for 37 points on 12-of-17 shooting (8-for-13 from deep) to give the Golden State Warriors a 119-107 victory Tuesday. Let's hope this is the start of a winning streak.
Even if I hit all three bets, I'll still be down entering February. But, all I can hope for is a step in the right direction for these …
NBA Wednesday Best Bets
- The odds chosen are the best available at the time of writing.
Sacramento Kings at Miami Heat (-118), 7:30 p.m. ET
Miami is on a 7-game losing skid. The Heat have the worst non-garbage time net rating in the NBA over that span, according to CleaningTheGlass.com (CTG). Well, I’m going to try to catch a falling knife and bet Miami snaps its losing streak.
The Heat lost 118-105 at home to the Phoenix Suns in their previous outing Monday. Miami big Bam Adebayo and rookie SF Jaime Jaquez Jr. both sucked vs. the Suns, and they are usually reliable. Bam scored just 8 points on 3-of-9 shooting and Jaquez went 0-for-6 with 2 points.
I expect a bounce-back game from Adebayo, who is one of my favorite players in the NBA. While Monday was Jaquez’s 2nd game back after missing the previous six with an injury. Jaquez is still a rookie, so I’ll overlook him struggling when returning to action.
Adding to that, the Heat shoot much better at home and match up well with the Kings. Their 3-point shooting goes from 35.9% on the road to 39.7% at home.
New Miami combo guard Terry Rozier is a good on-ball defender and can give some buckets back to Sacramento All-Star PG De’Aaron Fox. Heat SG Tyler Herro is better than Kings SG Kevin Huerter at everything.
Adebayo is the best defender in the NBA and the perfect guy to defend Sacramento's big, Domantas Sabonis. Miami SF Jimmy Butler is an All-Star-version of Kings SF Harrison Barnes.
Lastly, the Kings aren’t as good as their 27-18 straight-up (SU) record indicates. Per CTG, Sacramento has a +4.4 win differential. I.e. the Kings should have 4.4 fewer wins based on net efficiency.
My prediction: Heat 121, Kings 116
- Bet 1.18u on Miami's moneyline (-118) at DraftKings Sportsbook. The Heat are bet-able up to -2.5.
New Orleans Pelicans at Houston Rockets (+2.5), 8 p.m. ET
The Pelicans have sucked lately; they are 26th in net rating over the last two weeks, according to CTG. Granted, the Rockets have suffered ugly losses recently as well. But, New Orleans has no-showed in three of its past five games and lost four of them outright. NOLA has lost by at least 14 points to the Suns, Thunder, and Bucks in the last two weeks.
Also, the Rockets beat the Pelicans in their 1st two meetings this season. Once in Houston and the other in New Orleans. The Rockets were -3 favorites at home Nov. 11th vs. NOLA then +7.5 ‘dogs in New Orleans Dec. 23rd. Sure, the Pelicans have passed them in the standings. New Orleans is 26-21 and Houston is 22-24.
Yet, given these earlier results and Houston having a healthy starting lineup, I’m afraid I have to disagree with the Rockets being home underdogs. Plus, Houston big Alperen Şengün worked New Orleans big Jonas Valančiūnas in their two meetings this season. Şengün is averaging 30.5 points per game (PPG) on 61.1% shooting and a +24 net rating against the Pelicans in those two games.
Rockets 2nd-year PF Jabari Smith Jr. is the 3rd pick of the 2022 NBA Draft and has flashed All-Star potential. Smith's shooting percentages from 2- and 3-point range and the foul line are up year over year. He put up 26 points on 11-of-14 shooting vs. Pelicans All-Star PF Zion Williamson earlier this season.
Finally, the Rockets are sick at home. They are 17-8 SU and 16-8-1 against the spread (ATS) in Houston with a +6.3 scoring margin.
My prediction: Rockets 115, Pelicans 111
- Bet 1.15u on Houston +2.5 (-115) at BetMGM. The Rockets are playable down to pick 'em.
Phoenix Suns at Brooklyn Nets (+3), 8:30 p.m. ET
Everyone is going to bet Phoenix at those odds. The Suns are 8-2 SU over the last 10 games and Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal are all healthy. Brooklyn is 19-27 SU and the 11-seed in the Eastern Conference.
However, I’m a sucker for a good revenge game and that’s what we got here with the Nets. The Suns sent current Nets forwards Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson to Brooklyn for Durant last year.
Furthermore, Bridges and Johnson are good 3-point shooters and Phoenix doesn’t close out on threes. Over their last six games, the Suns are 28th in wide-open 3-point attempts allowed.
Brooklyn is 8th in 3-point attempt rate in the NBA. The Nets are hitting 15.2 threes per game over their last six outings. For context, the Mavericks are 2nd in the NBA with 15.2 made 3-pointers per game this season.
And, this might be an awful take, but Brooklyn PG Ben Simmons returning potentially gives the Nets something they need: a point guard. Their current starting PG, Spencer Dinwiddie, cannot run an offense.
Dinwiddie is more of a 6-man and microwave scorer off the bench. All Simmons needs to do is play defense, rebound, and attack the paint. He returned to action in Brooklyn’s 147-114 win over the Utah Jazz Monday.
In 18 minutes of playing time, Simmons had 10 points, 8 rebounds, and 11 assists with no turnovers. Even if Simmons’ return is meaningless Wednesday, the Nets could still get hot from deep and bury the Suns in threes.
